Texans Draft-Day Ineptitude (First Day)

It's weird, they both post a lot in the Texans forum and I always get them mixed up. Good to know it's not just me.

 

Yes, we know the Texans suck already and it's not changing anytime soon. We also know that the management sucks.. Everything related to the Texans besides Houston,Reliant Stadium and Casual Fan sucks

Meaning if you are a die-hard fan of this laughing stock of a franchise, your are included in the 'suck' catagory


Also yes I was a VY supporter read my history

 

Ric- I'm not saying I'm smart (you could see that )and I understand your points. I can understand the argument of drafting defense. I understand how pathetic our pass rush was and is still. I understand the cap issues, and I understand that getting a stud pass rusher is ALSO key to building a winner.

I did not like Carr in the 2nd season because he did not throw a good deep ball IMSO (S-stupid) , I personally didn't like his reads, and he did not seem to make the kind of plays that won games. It's just an opinion. I liked Carr's arm strength and his scrambling ability- but as the #1 overall pick I expected much more.

One of the tough things about Carr is that I think his biggest problem is mental- the ability to read and react at the pro level. I felt it was an issue when I didn't see any improvement between his first and 2nd season.

OK- you win the debate, the Texans drafted Mario because they are smart and everything pointed them in this direction, it was the rational, logical, intelligent and practical play for them. A no brainer so to speak.

The only reason I wanted Vince Young was because I watched him play and my opinion of his performance was that he was a great talent at the QB position worthy of the #1 pick and far better than what we had at the position. THAT was the only reason. It was an opinion.

I admit that I don't know enough about football to gamble on Brady Quinn. I don't know enough to tell if Adrian Peterson is going to avoid injury. I don't know enough to tell if Plummer is better than Carr- they seem to have about the same value to me as far as us getting the Texans to the Super Bowl.

 

You want me to ask every non-Texan fan their opinion on Vince? Don't take things so literally.

 

Or, when opportunity knocks. I guess Vince should consider himself lucky that he inherited such a talented supporting cast. Just like Joe Montana is lucky that Dwight Clark caught that ball against the Boys.

 

I read his posts and think to myself, "when the hell did I write that?"

 

look, first of all, stop being so nice - you're making me like a bully here. insult me at least once, ok...

uhm...

well, judging a rookie QB playing for an expansion team is diificult, if not impossible. but carr was on the proper pace his first three years. he was average his first season, better his second season and seemed to make the jump his third season. i would be shocked if anyone objectively evaluating david carr would draw any other conclusion.

and though he did tail off a bit over the final 8 weeks of his third season (as the competition got better), no one - NONE OF US - saw the drop-off he experienced in 2005. completely and totally out of nowhere. to this day, it remains a mystery how he went from an all-pro pace through 8 weeks of the 2004 season to the turd that was the 2005 season. its inexplicable.

but i agree; his football smarts leave much to be desired.

i certainly never said any of those things. i was merely trying to recreate a scenario that makes the extension of carr and drafting of williams not appear outright stupid.

there was a solid basis for what they did; that's all. if carr is eventually jettisoned and williams isn't at least in the neighborhood of bruce smith, then yes, it was a giant mistake. but a mistake i can understand. again, it's not like mario williams was some guy they projected to go in the second round. it was likely he would have gone 2nd to NO if the texans had taken bush.

and i don't disagree. again, we're dealing with hindsight and the taste of a disappointing season from carr, but kubiak, and apparently many others, viewed carr as a viable option at QB, good enough to be a part of a playoff team. when you have that already and the chance to upgrade other areas of more pressing concern, it's sensible to follow that path.

 

There are those fans that wanted VY from the start and have stuck by their guns.

There are those fans that were happy with the selection of Mario and have stuck by their guns.

Then, there are those fans that were indifferent at the time...but as a result of the Titans surprising season, jumped from being indifferent to thinking that the Texans made a big mistake and that VY should have been the selection.

Its these fans that would have hushed had VY and the Titans not created a stir by almost making the playoffs. A 5 win season would surely not have changed the minds of the "indifferent" crowd.

 

honestly, this wouldn't differ terribly from my own evaluation of carr, though i think more of his deep ball.

but QBs can't properly be evaluated as an individual entity (though they often are). the sorry OL, the crummy running game, the lack of a real #1 receiver (not to mention the lack of a legitimate TE and an overwhelmed coaching staff, which, you didn't mention) all impact the QB's performance, and vice versa, for what its worth.

i believe carr is skilled enough to function properly within a system that expects him to be a plan B, or even C. i've always, from day one, set his ceiling at troy aikman, another guy completely dependent on his supporting cast carrying the load.

he's had the crap kicked out of him and so i, too, wonder about his mentality; it's possible its taking a toll on him physically as well. hell, i was worried about the abuse he was enduing in 2003! to this day, none of the previous regime could ever provide a reasonably viable explanation to me for why they allowed carr to endure so much abuse.

having said all that, i don't think a) he's our biggest, second, or even third biggest problem; b) there's a better alternative available, now or even at the start of free agency, especially given our need to manage the cap carefully and horde draft picks.

again, you're assumptively dumping too much on carr - do you think the team played not to lose and he continually eschewed that directive by being safe and cautious?

again, read "blindside;" the passing game within shannahan's version of the WCO is designed to put receivers in space so they, not the QB, can make plays. in fact, its specifically designed to lessen the chance of a QB making a mistake.

its foundation is quick-hitting slants to specific locations. i mean, do you think AJ, the team (as well as league) leading receiver was ignoring the game plan and running all those short routes at carr's behest?

i don't think they underestimated young; i think they severely underestimated how emmaciated the team was; i think they sincerely believed they were closer than they actually were. if you want to pin a mistake on them, there ya go.

i believe, had kubiak known he'd have to blow this thing apart completely, he very well may have jettisoned carr and rebuilt with young. but he saw potential in carr, probably liked DD (a perfect back for the zone blocking system), loved johnson... so he gets a competent #2 WR, TE, rebuilds the OL... and with very little effort, they have an 8, 9-win offense. easy to understand. so you focus on the defense...

but then he got to camp: DD was AOL; moulds was past his prime by several exits; the OL was a disaster; carr was slow/reluctant/incapable of making adjustments to the new system/staff.......

 

And that's how I felt for nearly five years. I can't remember which game it was in '06, but after the game I posted in here that Carr had won me over--to the "Carr can't cut it" side. And it was based on the things he was doing himself--not passing yardage, completion percentage, etc.

I think much less of him as a QB than I did a year ago this time. Much less, and that comes based on objectively observing his performance--or lack thereof--this year. And, I think that's a fair evaluation as Kubiak went from singing his praise this time last year to

 

(damn clicky-mouse-pad) ...to benching him.

And, the Texans at least to some level pursued Plummer and Garcia. As there was no such pursuit last year (Rosenfels having replaced Ragone), it can be reasonably extrapolated that the Texans feel differently about Carr this year--either that they want to have him compete for his job, or that they don't want him to have the job at all. Ric, I see where you're coming from when you post that "he was never going anywhere", but ultimately we can't dogmatically know one way or the other unless someone inside tells us; and there's enough noise and smoke coming from inside to reasonably raise the question.

 

msn, this is going to sound... well, nutty, but bear with me. i keep going back to kubiak stating earlier this year (letting it slip?) that carr had never been properly taught how, during the week, to prepare for an upcominh game...

i mean, just take a second to let that sink in... if capers, palmer, pendry, et al, failed at what i assume would have been part of his very first lesson in 2002............

is it possible they TRIED to teach him and the guy just couldn't grasp even rudimentary things? and is that why kubiak was maybe initially sold on him (after studying film) and has now soured on the guy after spending a year with him and discovering he's dumb...? possible, but... my god. i mean, there are A LOT of really, really successful QBs who don't strike me as paticularly bright. i mean, like steve mcnair or jake delhomme are mensa members...? how mentally challenged do you have to be to not get how to play football....?

imo, his developement, in every facet, was severely r****ded by the previous regime. and i think - THINK - kubiak is trying to stuff everything that should have happened years 1-4 into as few a years as possible. benchings. criticism. accountability. responsibility - you know, essentially the things that were NEVER a part of the previous regime. like a crash course in crafting an NFL QB.

and i think this is all a continuation of it. ****ed seven ways to sunday kind of thinking, i'll grant you, but i think that was the task awaiting kubiak; i think that's how far behind carr was.

i was with you - carr lost me in 2005. i was in the "move on, no matter what" camp. wrote an article about it. thne kubiak came in, signed off on carr - i started to turn - still pessimistic, but... he started off OK... started to falter... and then i heard kubiak mention the prep thing and, i don't know - my perspective changed completely. i'm all for upgrading - provide me one, and i'll sign off, so to speak. but i'm giving up ZERO for jake plummer; ZERO for jeff garcia. i don't care how many times that brain-dead ****stick richard justice calls them a "winner" - they are NOT upgrades (or "winners"). they are stop gaps... but then, so is carr at this point, so why not let him play it out and see what happens?

 

All that sounds reasonable. Now, I think there's a difference between, "I hope Carr is not the QB in 2007; he clearly can't perform on the level we want our QB to perform," and, "The Texans should get rid of Carr at all cost!!"

I'm in favor of cutting/trading Carr in favor of another QB if the financial implications aren't drastically costly. I don't get the financial implications, however. I've seen compelling arguments on each side (it will only cost 2 million/it will cost 8 million). I don't know which to believe because I don't understand NFL salary structure and salary cap rules.

In fact, even if it's a lateral move--as long as it doesn't cost money or picks--I think it's better for the Texans and Carr to part ways. Too much water has passed under the bridge.

Finally, as always, I have to say that I hope if he stays here DC proves me wrong. I hope I look like an idiot and a horse's ass 9 months from now for saying these things today.

And, one more disclaimer: I don't know jack about NFL football. These are my impressions, but I could be outrageously wrong on all counts. I don't mean to speak authoritatively on it as I'm not an authority, and really don't even have even a casual knowledge of some of these things.

 

let me help out, if i can:

the much-balloyed extension added $8M of guaranteed money to carr's deal, which they were able to spread out over four years, including the 2005 season retroactively (huh? yeah, the nfl's fiscal year actually begins march 1; since hte bonus was triggered in february, prior to the start of the new fiscal year, it technically counted as happening in "2005", which is the reason the set the date the way they did. it's actually clever, except, it, of course, wound up only complicating things from a personnel standpoint).

so, from a cap perspective, carr's hit is the bonus ($2M/year for two more years) + his base salary ($5.25M in '07; $6M in '08). so, altogether, we're paying him $7.25M in '07; $8M in '08.

if they release carr, the remaining bonus ($4M) accelerates, but his base salary (the $11.25M - rememeber: $5.25M and $6M) is not guaranteed, so it, essentially, goes away. the texans can then allocate how they want to deal with the accelerated bonus: either take the entire hit against the current '07 cap ($4M), or, thru a bit of a loop hole, spread it out over the next 2 years (at $2M a year).

so... at most, carr costs us $4M this year; and at least $2M.

(take a break....... back? ok)

if they trade carr, the same situation exists... the bonus, again, accelerates. they can, again, absorb his $4M bonus this year, or spread it out over this year and next (at $2M/year). except, his new team has to pick up his $11.25M base salary (but not his bonus - that's exclusive property of the texans'). that no longer goes away, though it's also no longer property of the texans'. his new team can, of course, extend, renegotch - whatever, his remaining deal prior to the trade to lessen their cap implications.

make sense?

 

think so.

So, to apply to current situation:

If QB free agent 'A' exists, we'll call him Johnny, and the Texans cut Carr and sign him for a 1MM total signing bonus + 2.5 mill per for two years, then Johnny represents 7.5 million dollars for 2007, right? (4 million of DC's bonus--assuming they take the hit all in one year--plus 1MM his bonus, plus 2.5 mill his salary). David represents 8.25 million dollars in 2007, if I understand correctly.

Did I get that right? Now, if Johnny is not an upgrade at all over DC but only a lateral move, I still do it. If Johnny's worse than DC, I don't do it. If Johnny's bonus is 1MM and his salary is 3.5MM, making him (if I understand correctly), 250G more expensive than David and is a lateral move only, I still do it. But too much more money than that and I don't think it's very smart.

Two disclaimers:
1) Johnny doesn't exist
2) I don't know jack about this stuff and it's probably more complicated than that.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the benefit to a cut and detriment to a trade was actually being able to spread the signing bonus out. IOW, if cut, we could spread it over 2 years as you stated. However, if we traded him, we had to assume the full hit in the year traded.

 

Close. In 2007, Johnny costs $4MM (Carr signing bonus), $2.5MM (base) and $500k (signing) - a total of $7MM. In 2008, Johnny costs $2.5MM (base) and $500k (signing) - $3MM.

Keeping Carr would cost $7.25MM in 2007 and $8MM in 2008.

So, your total savings would be $0.25MM in 2007 and $5MM in 2008. Your total savings is Carr's total remaining base salary ($11.25MM) minus whatever you pay the new guy ($6MM) - again $6.25MM.

Alternatively, you can (apparently?) not accelerate the bonus and then you'd have a savings of $2.25MM this year and $3MM next year.

As you described, if you had a lateral move, it would save money to get someone else. Carr's contract is very "cap-friendly" because its mostly base money and relatively little bonus - that means less guaranteed money and less cap penalty to release a guy.