I don't want to turn this into a Van Gundy love/hate thread, but those numbers are a characteristic of a Van Gundy coached team. Efficient, high-percentage offense (even though he has seem to let them loose on 3-pt shooting) and solid defense across the floor. You can see why he has hesitated to play Novak or Bonzi. Novak is unproven on defense (I think he's good enough, just needs time/experience), and Bonzi is out of shape. Not that I don't want to see either of those guys, but there are reasons they aren't playing. By the end of the year I expect Novak to take over any time Padgett has been getting and some of Juwan's minutes, of course depending on the matchup. As far as Chuck Hayes playing 40+ minutes, that's not going to happen until he can hit an open jumper, even if he stays out of foul trouble. Great thread!
Thanks for the numbers, VG. This really puts into perspective what I was thinking. I knew we were tops in defense, but to see that we are #5 in TS% really lays out the big picture. We rock. I've had this game mentally circled for a few weeks. I agree that this is a big test and measuring stick as to how good we actually are, more so than the SA game a couple weeks ago. Great offense vs great defense.
About the turnover part- obviously we are turning it over quite a lot- but dont you think it is the differential that matters? Also Utah has the best rebounding Differential- hopefully with Chucky being on the floor a longer time we will get there!
Let us talk about Novak and "his percieved lack of defense". If he plays it will be as a specialist 3 point shooter or for the longer jump shots that Juwan is so good at clanking. Are we now suggesting that his defense is worse than Juwan's. If it comes to differential- and he is limited to 10-15 minutes early on when defensive stops are not important or the momentum is with us- I find the argument of not using Novak for lack of defense pretty much hollow! Let us assume he gets 5 Shots in 10 Minutes. Compared to anyone else ( barring perhaps luther)- I would be wiiling to bet that it will be net positive. Sure Match ups do warrant attention- but what is the logic if we use him against the opposition bench players. This is a case of circular argument- he wont get on the floor because of perceptions on defense and he cant show otherwise unless he is on the floor.
Differential ultimately matters. We are turnover-prone, and on the other end we don't force a lot of turnovers. However, with our style of play, it's more important that we control our turnovers than try to overplay on the defensive end and get more turnovers. Part of our defensive philosophy is not to gamble too much -- that's why we usually excel in opponent eFG% and defensive rebounding. San Antonio and Detroit are similar. I think JVG is probably more concerned with us improving our defensive rebounding%. We're 7th in the league right now; 2 years ago we were 1st and 3 years ago we were 2nd. We can do better on that.
Charles and Kenny don't know what they're talking about. Each time they raise the OPP PPG, and say that the rockets just slow the ball down and aren't really a good defensive team, they forget to mention OPP FG%
We have Mutombo, of course we are the sexiest team in the league. Rockets own TO numbers is slightly above league average and their opposing team TO is slightly below league average. Own TO=15.6, Opposing TO=14.4. Given that the Rockets play at a slower pace with fewer posessions, I think the opposing TO number is not bad, if they are not gambling and thus keeping the oppoent's FG% down. Their own 15.6 TO per game, though, is a concern, since they are turning it over at an slightly above avg rate when they have less possessions in which to do it. My guess is their TO per 100 possession doesn't look very pretty comparing with the rest of the league. They are getting pretty high % shots, but at the cost of perhaps making too many risky passes/moves. Maybe it's a matter of getting all the lineups on the same page, though.
Actually....Novak *is* worse than Juwan defensively, although frankly the difference isn't that huge. He will get better, but right now he's just terrible. Could you imagine putting Novak on KG last night? The horror.
It is the differential that counts- and why would I put Novak on KG? We are talking of 10-15 minutes instead of the brick shooter! Players Like KG will get their points regardless! We are taking nearly 30% of our attempts in 3 Pointers-23 per game ( second only to Phoneix). Novak needs only 4-5 such opportunities per game. Does not matter even if it is at the end of the first quarter or second quarter. I am certain the differential would work out much better. Like you pointed out Defense is something that will improve with hard work and getting to know rotations better.
the big problem there.. is that while Novak and Jho's individual D may be roughly the same...hell, I might even say Novak looks to be a little better individually....in a VG defensive scheme, the help D is actually more important than individual defense. and on that...Jho has the superior knowledge and experience in a VG defesive scheme. As soon as Novak learns where on the court he is supposed to go...he will get more time. Learning your rotations IS somethign that can be improved substantially in practice, so I think it safe to say that he is probably getting closer to ready for more minutes soon. By all accounts he is a smart player...so it shouldnt be beyond his abilities to learn complicated systems. It will just take a little time.
I am not the one that bring the rookie talk. OMR is. I do think the TS% is related to defense, but other factors count in defense too, such as how early or how late the shots are taken in the clock. TS% just tells you when a shot is put up, the percentage of making it. If a team tends to settle with long range shots and take a lot of them, their TS% will not be that good like the suns, but that might not have to do with our defense though, as matter of fact I think our prerimeter D is not as good as the TS% indicates.
I don't think this is correct. The Suns have the best TS% because they do factor in 3s and FTs. Other good indicators are e-FG% and opponents e-FG (available through 82games), which is shooting % adjusted for 3s. However this does not factor in TOs or fouls. Another is point per shot and opponents point per shot (readily available through ESPN misc stats). However this doesn't consider TOs and could incorrectly weight fouls, as going 0-2 from the line would not be considered a bad possession. I think points per possesion and opponents points per possession are probably the best single overall indicators of team offensive and defensive efficiency, because along with properly weighting 3s and FTs they will also factor in TOs made and forced and offensive rebounds taken and given. PPP can be found at 82games.com but you have to look at each team seperately. http://www.82games.com/0607/0607HOU3.HTM "PPts=points per 100 possessions". On a quick look it looks like we are tied with the Spurs in 1st in defensive efficiency (100PPts), with Orlando right there (101). Someone else feel free to figure out where we stand on offense and posting it.
1. The rookie comment was meant in rsponse to OMR. Sorry about mixing everything together. 2. I don't know if you recall the training camp photos pryuen posted. There was a big display on the wall of the practice gym that says things like "What we believe" "How we play", etc. Under "how we play", there wree things like "Gang rebounding" and "Free throw, deep post, uncontested 3 point shot" and the one that got some of us confused initially: "1 contested 2 pt J"-- meaning to limit the opposing team to one single contested 2 point jumper. The Rockets will allow the opposing team to take jumpers and live or die by it, and they generally do a pretty good job of not leaving the guy totally open and limiting the higher value 3 pt shots (out of the 75.4 shots per game shots be opposition, 15.4 were 3s). Given the current rules, it's hard to shut down the opposing team totally and not leaving them with either a drive or an open J. The Rockets are doing the rational thing in giving up the J, but trying to make it as "unopen" as possible. Sometimes, you get burned by hot shooting, but that's the nature of probablistic events. You do what's rational and you live with the results.
A better measure of defense (or offense) is looking at points per possession. TS% captures part of it -- scoring from the field and free throws -- but not rebounding or turnovers. As for the Suns, they are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the league because they take and make a lot of threes and get a lot of layups on fast breaks. They are third (behind the Jazz and Warriors) in FG%, and they are first (by a wide margin) in TS%. Bad example there. And I don't understand your point about the shot clock. If a team is forcing their opponents to take bad shots and consequentially makes them inefficient, that's either good defense or bad offense. Over the course of many games, if your opponent is very inefficient on average, then that means you're probably playing good defense.
JVG's offense is overrated. Just like Mike Fratello's. Their defense basically just slow down the game, clog the paint and let other teams to shoot from outside. This is effective against crappy team because they can't shoot. However, against quality teams with good shooters and better passing, the weakness is all exposed. That is why Grizzles led the league in Opp FG% last year and JVG's team always has the top Opp FG% stats but their defense can't really stop good teams in the playoffs.
