Team Efficiency Ratings - 2005-2006 Regular Season

StupidMoniker · Jul 18, 2006

Tango said:

One of the conclusions I'm drawing from all of this is that perhaps defense if overrated- not that it isn't important, but rather that it's not as equally important as having an efficienty offense that is able to give you a higher probability to scoring out of every possession.
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In offensive PPP the top six teams include Orlando, Seattle, and Toronto. Seattle showed up again in the top six for offensive floor percentage. (Looking at the top 20% is probably a carry-over from one of my old jobs, didn't choose it to skew resluts, BTW) The worst team in the top 6 for defensive PPP was Chicago, a 0.500 playoff team. Defensive floor% had Houston enter the top six, but out record was likely affected by injuries. Outside of that one outlier, the other teams in the top six were all playoff teams with Chicago again the worst. So, if nothing else, being a top notch defensive team seems a better route to getting a spot in the playoffs than being a top notch offensive team. Based on the numbers Miami really seems to have stepped up their game in the playoffs, because by three out of four ratings they are not one of the best teams in the league on either side of the ball. Of course, one of the big stories of the finals was D. Wade stepping up his game after game 2, so that computes.

Shooter1583 · Jul 18, 2006

The stats confirm what we knew. The Rockets are horrific offensively and competitive defensively. You know, a lot of players have come out and said how much JVG wants to run and push the tempo, but I wonder how much of that is just a PR move to combat the many who feel his offense is inept. I just dont see how the Rockets are trying to run and push tempo when they're amongst the last in fast break points and shots per game.

m_cable · Jul 18, 2006

Tango said:

I don't know that you choose one over the other per se. At least I'm not advocating that. I think you look at both. Just to clarify - floor% isn't "how often you can score" but how efficient you are at scoring with each possession.

freemaniam- you have a point. If you look at the floor% off & def it's pretty close in terms of which teams are in the playoffs vs. not. Actually what I haven't done yet is to adjust the PPP's or the Floor% against strength of schedule which might yield some other insights.
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I'm just saying that you seem to be basing a lot of your assumptions on Dallas and Miami finishing 1, 2 in the offensive floor% stat. But I just think the PPP is much more of a determining stat than the floor%. Unless we're talking about a last possession type situation, I can't think of a reason why you'd prefer to look at floor% over ppp. And even in a last possession situation, the rules change since there is so much more riding on it that you have both teams completely on their toes. So if we weigh the ppp stat more than the floor%, then maybe that changes some of your conclusions.

Truth be told, I'm still a bit iffy over the deep use of statistics in the playoffs, since I'm more of a believer in matchups. But they do make a compelling argument sometimes. As for this particular argument, I'd say it's still a work in progress.

freemaniam · Jul 18, 2006

m_cable said:

I'm just saying that you seem to be basing a lot of your assumptions on Dallas and Miami finishing 1, 2 in the offensive floor% stat. But I just think the PPP is much more of a determining stat than the floor%. Unless we're talking about a last possession type situation, I can't think of a reason why you'd prefer to look at floor% over ppp. And even in a last possession situation, the rules change since there is so much more riding on it that you have both teams completely on their toes. So if we weigh the ppp stat more than the floor%, then maybe that changes some of your conclusions.

Truth be told, I'm still a bit iffy over the deep use of statistics in the playoffs, since I'm more of a believer in matchups. But they do make a compelling argument sometimes. As for this particular argument, I'd say it's still a work in progress.
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I think Tango didn't show any preference, PPP or floor%, in his post either.

Allow me to share a bit of my thinking on PPP vs floor%. Although both figures are rating team performance based on possession, the different rankings of MIA and DAL in OFF_PPP and OFF_Floor% may simply due to their FT%. Both teams are close at OFF_Floor% but MIA was 5 positions lower than DAL in OFF_PPP. Considering that every FT gained per possession was factored-in in Floor% and there is a player named Shaq O'Neal in MIA, it won't be difficult to explain the situation here.

Personally, I enjoy very much the fresh views Tango and Durvasa brought to this forum trying to explain the outcomes (e.g. players and teams performance) through facts (i.e. the figures). And base on this figures, random game watcher like me can have clearer idea how well/bad our team/player was doing "comparing to others in the league".

However, m_cable, I agree with your comment on using stats in playoffs, like I said in my earlier post.

rn_xw · Jul 18, 2006

if we can keep up the D and convert more fastbreaks and layups, we would be not bad after all. But not what everyone is expecting. Three point shooting is always the weakness of our team. I hope Battier and head can be our sharpshooter and Alston better not take more than 5 fgs per game.

Tango · Jul 18, 2006

m_cable said:

I'm just saying that you seem to be basing a lot of your assumptions on Dallas and Miami finishing 1, 2 in the offensive floor% stat. But I just think the PPP is much more of a determining stat than the floor%. Unless we're talking about a last possession type situation, I can't think of a reason why you'd prefer to look at floor% over ppp. And even in a last possession situation, the rules change since there is so much more riding on it that you have both teams completely on their toes. So if we weigh the ppp stat more than the floor%, then maybe that changes some of your conclusions.

Truth be told, I'm still a bit iffy over the deep use of statistics in the playoffs, since I'm more of a believer in matchups. But they do make a compelling argument sometimes. As for this particular argument, I'd say it's still a work in progress.
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Yeah you're right about basing my conclusions on Dallas & Miami finishing 1 & 2 in offensive floor %. It's not conclusive by any stretch of the imagination. I just thought it was somewhat interesting that they happened to both have the best floor % in the league. What might be interesting is to do a check against past teams that made it to the NBA finals to see what that looks like. If I have time I may visit that at some point.

I'll probably make an attempt to do the same stats for the post-season as well to see what that tells us. Actually I'm more interested in the matchups as well and was what I was planning on doing next. Getting adjusted ppp's and floor %'s team vs. team will produce some interesting results I think.

studogg · Jul 18, 2006

Tango said:

Yeah you're right about basing my conclusions on Dallas & Miami finishing 1 & 2 in offensive floor %. It's not conclusive by any stretch of the imagination. I just thought it was somewhat interesting that they happened to both have the best floor % in the league. What might be interesting is to do a check against past teams that made it to the NBA finals to see what that looks like. If I have time I may visit that at some point.

I'll probably make an attempt to do the same stats for the post-season as well to see what that tells us. Actually I'm more interested in the matchups as well and was what I was planning on doing next. Getting adjusted ppp's and floor %'s team vs. team will produce some interesting results I think.
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deleted, misread above statement

Tango · Jul 18, 2006

A couple of random thoughts...

Regarding the offense vs. defense discussion. With a little further look though it appears that "more" defensive teams make it into the play-off's vs. not, one thing you have to also factor in is that the NBA avg for last season was 104.4 pts scored/allowed. If you look at the defensive PPP list you'll find that there are 17 out of 29 teams that have better than average defenses, but only 11 out of 29 teams that have better than average offenses.

That means the pool of teams that are considered to have better defenses might skew the view of why defense get's you into the playoffs. If you do % on the above numbers that means 17% of the teams that have better than avg defenses DID NOT make it to the playoffs while 18% of the teams that have better than avg offenses DID NOT make it to the playoffs which is pretty much a wash I think.

One big mistake I just caught - I totally left off the Washington Wizards. Oversite on my part. I'll add them when I get a chance later this evening.

JeopardE · Jul 18, 2006

m_cable said:

I disagree in theory. I think they're equally important as an abstract concept. Basically if you are stronger in one area, you can afford to be less strong in the other. And teams that are the strongest in both areas in aggregate end up being the best team.

But in practice I have to wonder if the new NBA rule changes are shifting the balance more towards the offensive side of the ball. With this interpretation of the handcheck rule, guys that can take the ball off the dribble are at a huge advantage against the defense.

Certainly I still think you need to strike a balance between offense/defense. But how much balance? Are things slowly but surely shifting toward the offense? It's an interesting topic to be sure.
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Not just theory, actually. Looking at a rough correlation of this data to playoff appearance (sorry, don't have time to plot rank vs. actual win/loss record):

13 of the top 15 teams in defensive PPP made the playoffs. The two that didn't were Houston and Minnesota.

By contrast, just 10 of the top 15 teams (and 3 of the top 6) in offensive PPP made the playoffs.

Also,

13 of the top 15 teams in defensive floor % made the playoffs. The two that didn't were ... you guessed it, Houston and Minnesota.

By contrast, just 9 of the top 15 teams in offensive floor % made the playoffs.

It seems to me that defense is still the more important factor. We already know about Houston's situation -- this data just reinforces the fact that we would have been a solid playoff team if healthy. What's interesting is Minnesota's situation though. They didn't have health problems, but it seems like all they need to get back into the playoffs is a some extra offense (Mike James?).

Tango · Jul 18, 2006

JeopardE - the only problem with that is 17/29 teams have above average defenses while 11/29 teams have above avg offenses meaning the population of teams that have above average defenses is much larger. The % are about the same of the teams making it into the playoffs or not (17% of the above avg. defensive teams don't make it while 18% of the above avg. offensive teams don't make it). I'll see how adding the wizards back in shifts this.

Xerobull · Jul 18, 2006

Tango- I always love your stastical breakdowns. Can we send this to the Rockets brass (not JVG)? Like you said, it's obvious in the 'new' NBA that scoring is more important than defense.

SamFisher · Jul 18, 2006

excellent thread, thanks for this.

durvasa · Jul 18, 2006

Neat thread.

I'd be interested to see if PPP differential correlates better with winning% than Floor% differential. It makes sense that PPP differential would be more important, but maybe that's not the case.

JeopardE · Jul 18, 2006

Tango said:

JeopardE - the only problem with that is 17/29 teams have above average defenses while 11/29 teams have above avg offenses meaning the population of teams that have above average defenses is much larger. The % are about the same of the teams making it into the playoffs or not (17% of the above avg. defensive teams don't make it while 18% of the above avg. offensive teams don't make it). I'll see how adding the wizards back in shifts this.
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Agreed, but what it does seem to indicate is defensive ranking (rather than actual score, as percentages would indicate) is a much better indicator of regular season success than offensive ranking is. (i.e. why Seattle's record was so pathetic even though they clearly had one of the most offensively prolific teams in the league.) Another example is the Suns ... while their offensive prowess is well known, their defense is actually somewhat underrated (I remember Hollinger saying something to this effect last year).

Tango · Jul 18, 2006

Here's the Washington Wizards Stats:
Code:
Offensive Efficiency
ps	fg	fga	pospg	sp	ppp(6)	f%(3)
101.7	36.3	81.2	94.2	47.7	108.0	0.507

Defensive Efficiency
ps	fg	fga	pospg	sp	ppp(25)	f%(25)
99.8	36.8	79	93.6	46.9	106.6	0.501
Offensive & defensive ppp & f% ranks listed above. I'll put them into the spreadsheets and resort when I get home this evening.

Tango · Jul 19, 2006

Here are the updated tables. It was easier not to replace the earlier ones.

Teams italicized and bolded are teams that made into the playoffs.
PPP italicized and bolded indicate average or above PPP ratings.

NEW TABLE: Teams Sorted by W/L PCT (Standing)

Updated Teams Sorted by O PPP

Updated Teams Sorted by D PPP

Updated Teams Sorted by O Floor %

Updated Teams Sorted by d Floor %

Tango · Jul 19, 2006

Here's a new table that's really worth noting spawned by durvasa's post in this thread about trying to correlate winning pct / standings.

NBA Teams sorted by Pt Margin:

This one bears a little discussion. I think this table is the most conclusive so far in pointing out a highly correlated factor in determining w/l records and therefore standings for making it into the post-season. It appears the factor that seems to be most dominant is the average margin of points scored (points scored - points allowed). In retrospect I guess this isn't a huge suprise but it's interesting to see this pointed out. I guess in some ways it points to the need to have a balanced offense and defense.

Closely related is the margin of points per possession (ppp - ppp allowed) as represented by the following table:

NBA Teams sorted by PPP Margin:

Tango · Jul 19, 2006

One more set of tables worth posting since there was some discussion regarding the topic in terms of offensive efficiency vs. defensive efficiency and the relationship in making the playoff's, I did some sorts based on conference for PPP and this is the output:

Western Conference Sorted by O PPP

Eastern Conference Sorted by O PPP

Western Conference Sorted by D PPP

Eastern Conference Sorted by D PPP

Man · Jul 19, 2006

Good stuff, thanks!

Also akuma, Tmac and Yao missed a lot of games. So did Alston..and Howard too? Or was that 2 seasons ago? I can't remember!

ANyways, I guess our team defense was still good this season even with the tons of injuries.

We definitely will have better offensive efficiency/production..this past season wasn't our healthy team.

vj23k · Jul 19, 2006

Wow, great work, Mr. Morey.

Seriously though, awesome work man, much appreciated.

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Team Efficiency Ratings - 2005-2006 Regular Season

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