Johnson will beat out Canaan IMO. Although he should get some minutes since Rockets need bench scoring. Speaking of scoring, where are Jones, D-Mo, Covington not to mention Gee & Capela?
Today was encouraging to me because of the Boozer developments. Since the Rockets DID have interest in signing Boozer (to the point where a deal was all but agreed to, should he clear), but weren't willing to shed the TPE/MLE to do it, it sounds like Morey has targets for those that he considers realistic. Same with K-Pap, who the Rockets wanted to bring over, but cut off talks when he refused to take the lower exception. If the Rockets have passed on two guys they had interest in for the sake of preserving the TPE/MLE, I don't think they're blindly hoping. DM must have scenarios that he likes and feels are realistic.
Love the optimism, but I think the opposite? These were probably 2 guys he had pegged as potential targets for the MLE and BAE. The fact that he wouldn't spend more KPap is a good thing, but it doesn't mean that there is some other target he prefers for the BAE - simply that he doesn't see KPap as worth more than the BAE. So, fact of the matter is that he tried to use the BAE, but the first target for it didn't take it. Preserved the MLE for Boozer, but someone bid, so wasn't able to use it.
I remember Bill talking about how ineffective he was during closeouts after the defense rotates, like a mouse charging at you lol
If Morey were willing to spend the MLE on Boozer, he'd have made a bid. The Rockets had the option to renounce their exceptions, make a bid on Boozer as an under-the-cap team (the winning bid was only $3.25 million, well under MLE amount) and take him. In short, if they had wanted to spend MLE money on Boozer, they had every opportunity to -- and would've had some cap space left over as well. Moreover, by all reports, K-Pap didn't want much more than the BAE -- 5 million over 2 years instead of somewhere in the 4s, and that's typically a reasonable compromise. In fact, the Rockets had plenty of room to put in a winning bid on Boozer AND bring in K-Pap. But Morey wouldn't budge, not even a little bit. Considering a prerequisite of even negotiating with K-Pap was promising him a rotation spot, such a hard-line stance would seem odd... unless there's a specific reason he has to hold onto the full MLE so tightly.
I might be totally wrong on this, but I didn't think a team could make an amnesty bid using the MLE? Again, that might be incorrect, but I thought it had to be a 'capspace' bid. Morey didn't value Boozer enough to forfeit the non-guaranteed contracts AND the MLE (ie, essentially 2 MLEs instead of 1)
But I should add, I hope you're right, and there's a full MLE target that he has in mind (whomever that might be?). Perhaps trying every avenue to tee up another move first?
Not the MLE itself, but the value of it. When I say MLE, I'm speaking of the $$$ value, which is the same over or under the cap. Two things about the non-guaranteed contracts: 1.) They could've reached MLE level ($5+ million, i.e. a winning bid) without waiving non-guarantees. You'd only have to forfeit the non-guarantees if you want to get beyond that level, i.e. open up additional space to compensate for loss of TPE. 2.) The non-guaranteed contracts aren't really that valuable to HOU, anyway, considering they can't be traded in a package (i.e. any player of substance) for 60 days. By that point in mid-September, the transactions market will be pretty much dead, and you can't carry the non-guaranteed status into the season, nor would there likely be space for them on the 15-man season roster. Bottom line: if they saw Boozer as a priority, i.e. a player they were targeting with one of the bigger salary spots they have available (MLE level clearly is), they could've and would've simply made a bid and still had leftover wiggle room for further deals. They liked Boozer, but only for one of the smaller exceptions, which would seemingly mean there's someone they like more for the more significant one(s).
2013-2014 Per Game Statistics for Shawn Marion (black font), Chandler Parsons (red font), and Trevor Ariza (blue font) appear below. As you can see, Marion is a huge liability on offense. Note the huge negative ORPM (-1.72), xRAPM (Off) [-0.96], negative per game plus/minus (+/- = -1.8 pts), weak PER (13.7) and the relatively weak WS (+4.3 games), WAR (+1.96 games), and NetRtg (0.00 pts per 100 possessions). Compare these numbers to Parsons: ORPM (+1.37), xRAPM (Off) [+1.99], +/- (+4.4 pts), PER (15.9), WS (+7.6 games), WAR (+7.57 games), and NetRtg (+6.3ppg per 100 possessions). Then compare Marion's numbers to Ariza: ORPM (-0.15), xRAPM (Off) [+0.43], +/- (+2.5 pts), PER (+15.8), WS (+8.0 games), WAR (+5.42 games), and NetRtg (+3.5ppg per 100 possessions). Marion is not in the same league with Parsons and Ariza. On defense, Marion is actually very good. Based on DRPM, Marion is a better defender than Parsons but not as good as Ariza. For example, Marion's DRPM is +0.68 (very good), Parsons is +0.58 (good), but Ariza's DRPM is a stellar +1.04 (elite). The xRAPM (Def) database ranks them differently but agree that Marion is a good defender. For example, Marion's xRAPM(Def) is +1.26, much higher than Ariza's +0.92 and also higher than Parsons +0.15. A comparison of their DefRtgs via nba.com is also very different. Note: DefRtgs at nba.com are calculated differently than RPM and xRAPM. DefRtg does not utilize ridge regression or any other regularization technique, rather, it simply tracks the number of points scored while player X is on the floor. Nba.com's DefRtg heavily favors Ariza (101.4 pts allowed) compared to Parsons (104 ppg allowed) and Marion (107.5 ppg allowed). I prefer DRPM and xRAPm (Def) to nba.com's DefRtg but I'm sure some of you feel differently. Finally, which player has a bigger impact on the outcome of games? We can get some idea of this by comparing Total xRAPM, Total RPM, WS, NetRtg, and per game +/-. Parson's Total RPM of +1.95 is much better than Ariza's (+0.91), which is much better than Marion's -1.04. Parsons xRAPM of +2.14 is much better than Ariza's +1.35, which is much better than Marion's +0.30. Parsons per game plus/minus, +/-, of +4.4 (Rox are 4.4 pts better with him on the floor) is better than Ariza's +2.5 (Wiz are +2.5 ppg better with him on the floor) and, much better than Marion's -1.8 ppg (Mavs are better by +1.8 ppg with him on the bench). Parson's NetRtg of +6.3 ppg (Rox are +6.3 ppg better with him on the floor when normalized to 100 possessions) is better than Ariza's +3.5 (Wiz was better by +3.5 ppg with him on the floor normalized to 100 possessions), and much better than Marion's NetRtg of 0.0 (he had no effect on the outcome of games with the Mavericks). Ariza's Win Share of +8.0 games is best of all but Parsons is a very close second at +7.6 games, with Marion is a distant third at +4.3 games. Both Parsons and Ariza have a large positive effect on the outcome of games; Marion doe snot; he is statistically a non factor. But look at I this way. The Rockets should be able to maintain leads with Marion on the floor even if he can't help us build leads or help us overcome deficits. Since he's a defensive specialist, he can be utilized as one of the pieces that protect Harden and TJones. Shawn Marion (Compared to Chandler Parsons-red font, and, Trevor Ariza-blue font): 2013-2014 Per Game Stats PPG = 10.4 on 9.3 FGA (16.6 on 13.3 FGA) [14.4 on 11.1 FGA]; FG% = 48.2 (47.2%) [45.6%]; 3ptFG% = 35.8% (37.0%) [40.7%]; RPG = 6.5 (5.5) [6.2]; +/- = -1.8 (+4.4) [+2.5]; PER = 13.7 (15.9) [15.8]; TS% = 53.7% (56.5%) [59.0%]; eFG% = 52.3% (53.8%) [56.2%]; WS (Off) = +2.2 games (+5.1 games) [+4.3 games]; WS (Def) = +2.1 games (+2.5 games) [+3.7 games]; Total WS = +4.3 games (+7.6 games) [+8.0 games]; OffRtg = 107.5 pts (110.3 pts) [104.8 pts]; DefRtg = 107.5 pts (104.0 pts) [101.2 pts]; Net Rtg = 0.0pts (+6.3 pts) [+3.5 pts]; DRPM = +0.68 (ranking 21st among the 75 SFs in the league), +0.58 (ranks 23rd among the 75 SFs in the league), [+1.04 (ranks 7th among the 88 SGs in the league)]; ORPM = -1.72 (55th among the 75 SFs in the league), +1.37 (ranks 11th among the 75 SFs in the league), [-0.15 (ranks 39th among the 88 SGs in the league)]; Total RPM = -1.04 (ranks 40th among the 75 SFs in the league); +1.95 (ranks 13th among the 75 SFs), [+0.91 (ranks 19th among the 88 SGs in the league)]; WAR = +1.96 (ranks 26th among the 75 SFs in the league), +7.57 (ranks 8th among the 75 SFs in the league), [+5.42 (ranks 12th among the 88 SGs in the league)]; xRAPM (Off) = -0.96 (+1.99) [+0.43]; xRAPM (Def) = +1.26 (+0.15) [+0.92] ; Total xRAPM = +0.30 (+2.14) [+1.35]; Min = 31.7 (37.6) [35.4]; Games = 76 (74) [77]; Age = 35 (25) [28]; Salary (Cap Hit) = $?? UFA; ($14.7M) [$8M] Per Game, Advanced Box Score Stats from nba.com; Win Shares and salaries from basketball-reference.com; RPMs and WAR from espn.go.com; and xRAPMs from http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/HOU.html.
BAE : Marion MLE : Waiting for Turner to be rejected by most teams for a long term contract and then we will sign him for 1 year of MLE money.
He was horrible shooter during his time with the suns...but he improved his 3 point shot last year. Not a bad pick up for the minimum.
All I know is I want The Dragon and Ilyasova on this team along with Blatche. Not sure if there is space cap or roster wise but Okafor also. Maybe even Delfino
The Bucks have come out and said they are not trading Ilyasova. They are keeping him. I wonder if Morey has a sign and trade in the works for either Greg Monroe or Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is probably more likely at this point but who knows.
