From the Morey on 610 thread, the GM says that a defensive 5 is the number one priority right now. Well, that isn't new -- he's been saying that since offseason. But obviously with Yao out, and now Chuck gone for who knows how long, adding a defensive presence in the middle has to be the primary target. I think all this talk about the Rockets chasing after Carmelo Anthony is dreaming, and its not really addressing our main weakness either. So, who are the targets the Rockets have in mind? I would say the two main criteria would be youth (what's the point in going after a Marcus Camby at this stage?) and defensive acumen. Obviously, the younger the player is, the more growth potential there is for him on the defensive side. To get an idea of the pool of NBA players the Rockets may be targeting, see the listing of NBA centers below. I have include MP this season, Age, and ADSPM (adjusted defensive statistical plus-minus). Defense is pretty difficult to quantify, there's no fool-proof way to do it. I used ADSPM as a defensive metric to get a general estimate of the player's defensive impact. This comes from the work of DSMok1, posted here on the APBRmetrics board. Read through that thread and check out the the posted spreadsheet for more details. Code: Tm Player MP Age ADSPM ORL Dwight Howard 1057 25 4.58 MIL Larry Sanders 330 22 3.7 IND Jeff Foster 129 34 3.53 POR Marcus Camby 808 36 3.3 NOH D.J. Mbenga 192 30 3.26 MIL Andrew Bogut 854 26 3.18 DAL Alexis Ajinca 19 22 3.09 DET Ben Wallace 755 36 2.74 CHI Joakim Noah 883 25 2.64 CHI Kurt Thomas 183 38 2.46 CHI Omer Asik 349 24 2.39 TOR Joey Dorsey 219 27 2.39 DAL Tyson Chandler 792 28 2.38 ORL Marcin Gortat 396 26 2.35 SAS Tim Duncan 896 34 2.33 MIA Zydrunas Ilgauskas 606 35 2.33 MIA Erick Dampier 214 35 2.23 DEN Chris Andersen 202 32 2.16 BOS Shaquille O'Neal 446 38 1.93 NOH Emeka Okafor 993 28 1.91 WAS JaVale McGee 795 23 1.83 CHA DeSagana Diop 176 29 1.77 MIA Jamaal Magloire 44 32 1.75 MIA Joel Anthony 560 28 1.65 SAC Samuel Dalembert 567 29 1.62 BOS Jermaine O'Neal 168 32 1.6 LAC DeAndre Jordan 768 22 1.52 ATL Al Horford 1152 24 1.44 NJN Johan Petro 271 25 1.41 IND Roy Hibbert 871 24 1.4 PHI Tony Battie 234 34 1.38 DAL Brendan Haywood 540 31 1.34 CLE Anderson Varejao 959 28 1.31 MIN Darko Milicic 752 25 1.22 LAL Theo Ratliff 67 37 1.22 DAL Ian Mahinmi 85 24 1.19 WAS Hilton Armstrong 340 26 1.17 CHA Nazr Mohammed 508 33 1.14 ATL Zaza Pachulia 447 26 1.09 SAS Antonio McDyess 462 36 1.08 BOS Semih Erden 335 24 1.04 OKC Cole Aldrich 55 22 1.03 MEM Marc Gasol 1031 26 1.02 NYK Timofey Mozgov 253 24 0.97 DEN Shelden Williams 557 27 0.97 PHI Spencer Hawes 660 22 0.94 OKC Byron Mullens 48 21 0.89 LAC Chris Kaman 265 28 0.83 UTA Al Jefferson 1148 26 0.66 SAC DeMarcus Cousins 728 20 0.65 LAL Pau Gasol 1222 30 0.62 UTA Francisco Elson 338 34 0.59 IND Solomon Jones 399 26 0.54 DET Chris Wilcox 134 28 0.53 NYK Amare Stoudemire 1174 28 0.49 GSW Andris Biedrins 695 24 0.48 PHI Marreese Speights 298 23 0.45 MEM Hamed Haddadi 22 25 0.45 NYK Ronny Turiaf 449 28 0.33 HOU Chuck Hayes 668 27 0.3 DEN Nene Hilario 850 28 0.25 MEM Hasheem Thabeet 213 23 0.21 HOU Yao Ming 91 30 0.16 WAS Trevor Booker 342 23 0.13 POR Joel Przybilla 87 31 0.08 ATL Jason Collins 266 32 0.06 NJN Brook Lopez 1119 22 0.03 NOH Pops Mensah-Bonsu 35 27 0.02 PHO Channing Frye 935 27 -0.02 HOU Brad Miller 542 34 -0.08 ATL Etan Thomas 18 32 -0.14 MIN Kosta Koufos 233 21 -0.14 GSW Dan Gadzuric 238 32 -0.19 CHA Kwame Brown 299 28 -0.19 DEN Melvin Ely 189 32 -0.22 NOH David Andersen 52 30 -0.23 MIL Brian Skinner 1 34 -0.33 NOH Aaron Gray 32 26 -0.39 UTA Kyrylo Fesenko 194 24 -0.4 TOR David Andersen 150 30 -0.52 LAL Andrew Bynum 153 23 -0.54 MIN Nikola Pekovic 260 25 -0.58 PHO Garret Siler 35 24 -0.62 TOR Solomon Alabi 10 22 -0.62 ATL Josh Powell 420 28 -0.74 SAC Jason Thompson 481 24 -0.87 CLE Ryan Hollins 348 26 -0.91 MIN Anthony Tolliver 356 25 -0.91 PHO Robin Lopez 310 22 -0.99 LAC Jarron Collins 142 32 -1.07 GSW Louis Amundson 190 28 -1.12 PHO Marcin Gortat 79 26 -1.16 GSW David Lee 855 27 -1.28 TOR Andrea Bargnani 938 25 -1.5 UTA Mehmet Okur 57 31 -1.51 OKC Nenad Krstic 559 27 -1.65 POR Fabricio Oberto 45 35 -1.91 SAC Hassan Whiteside 2 21 -2 WAS Hamady Ndiaye 12 24 -4.75 Here is a chart I put together, plotting the above players based on their age and ADSPM rating. I scaled the font size of the player names in accordance with the overall estimated value of the player for the current season, based on DSMok1's calculations (if it falls under $1 million dollar threshold, you won't see their name). I also put an orange line onto the graph to demarcate the pool of players that I think the Rockets would (or should) focus on if possible. Its not exact -- obviously I'm not interested in bringing back Joey Dorsey, and I think Varejao or Andersen would be a nice fit too even if they aren't really young. Any particular young centers that catch your attention? ADSPM seems to like Larry Sanders a lot (high blk% and stl%, solid rebounding stats, rotation player on a very good defensive team). That Dwight Howard kid looks pretty good too.
The targets I would be going after: 1. Whiteside Sacremento - 21 year old who led the NCAA in blocked shots and has a 7'7" wingspan, he is behind Cousins, and can probably be had. 2. DeAndre Jordan - Another young with length, he is an expiring contract, really cheap, but is restricted..and seems to work great with Griffin on the Clips. 3. JaVale McGhee - Washington is looking to move him or Blatche, we could use a shotblocking big with athleticism. 4. Thabeet - has been discussed and probably can be had as well. 5. Robin Lopez - If the Suns are moving him after getting Gortat. Those would be my primary upside targets - temporary or filling a need targets. 1. Camby 2. Kaman And that is probably it. DD
Larry Sanders is second behind Dwight Howard. And the guy is raw. I watched this guy play and see him do so many stupid things on the court and make up for it on sheer athleticism. He has so much to learn but he can block shots on anyone in the league and he is quicker than Dwight Howard down the court. And to think we could have Sanders with our pick. The truth is the more I watch PPat the more I like him. But Sanders is one of those defensive specialists that every team wants and will be in the league for many years. Dorsey ain't to shabby either.
I don't know. I have a feeling Morey will find a way to get Gortat like he's been trying for a couple of seasons now.
I dunno, a small portion of one season is too small of a sample size. Which makes it doubly hard to evaluate young players.
The Hornets are 4-6 in their last 10, including losses to the Sixers, Pistons, Pacers and T-Wolves. They do have some surprising wins in there - Thunder, dominating the Jazz, the Hawks, etc. That said, Emeka gets paid $12.5, $13.5 and $14.5 million over the next 3 years. He is overpaid. But for a competing team, not amazingly so. He is about as consistent as they come, you know what you get, and he is strong defensively. Regardless of what happens with CP3, I'd still target Okafor. He's still relatively young, a Houston native, and exactly what the team needs. Something like the below works for me. Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill, Budinger for Okafor The Hornets are taking back less in salary, have Jeffries expiring and get actual talent in Hill and Budinger, both who remain locked up for 1 more year at cheap rates. If there's a way to do it keeping Hill, even better. If there's a bigger trade netting CP3 and Okafor that's the best.
I remember getting into an argument with you about Sanders this summer. You seem to be looking pretty smart right about now. Sanders looks to be completely inept offensively, but defensively he's having a big impact.
'The two main criteria are youth and defensive acumen.' Maybe a third criteria should be factored in to remove the clutter: Availability. No point in looking at the likes of Howard, Bogut, Noah etc.... if there is no chance of getting them.
A few thoughts: 1. Joey Dorsey and Hilton Armstrong are retty good there, no? Why didn't we ever get our hands on guys like that? Well, the sample sizes are a bit small. 2. I think Morey looks at more than just an ajusted D +/- number since the margin of error +/- stats tend to be fairly large when you have just one season (or even two seasons) of data to consider. I think these numbers put guys in "neighborhoods" (which is useful) but don't quite "pinpoint" how good a guy is. I also recall Morey acquiring guys whose +/- (adjusted or not) were not great (I think Kyle Lowry had a negative adjusted +/- in Memphis). 3. Guy I like, and has been discussed before, include Varejao and Gortat. But the #1 factor for any of these is really availability. Can't get a guy if his team doesn't want to trade him to us.
Oddly, the name that pops out for me is Joey Dorsey. He isn't playing much for his team. He isn't getting a lot of block shots, but he is getting a ton of steals.
Varejao is the guy I want. Difference maker defensively and moves well off the ball. Relatively young and on a really bad team.
A point of clarification -- ADSPM is a not an adjusted +/- stat. Its based on player and team boxscore statistics (the ones which seem to predict adjusted +/- the best). That will help reduce the noise that comes with your typical +/- stats, but it also may not capture certain intangibles.
