Tanks, but NO Tanks: The lottery odds against drafting a franchise player

Bingo! I once already said defense wins championships and the offensive minded Scola/Martin/Brooks is far from that Pistons team who would sweep this current team in a 7 game series.

 

Okay. You apparently think we have a higher probability of getting a star player via trade or free agency. Here are my thoughts on that from earlier in this thread in which nobody seems to have paid any attention to.

Now for the fun stuff! If trade or free agency are the best route, then explain this:

Of the 16 superstars and second tier players you listed (and I don't know how you left Russell Westbrook off that list), only ONE of those superstars is on a team that didn't draft him (Lebron James). Only THREE of the second tier stars are with a team that didn't draft them (Bosh, Stoudemire, Johnson). So of 16 top notch players, 12 of them are on the teams that drafted them. That is 75% of them. Oh, and by the way, two of those guys who aren't with the team who drafted them bolted to join Dwyane Wade, who Miami drafted, on the Heat. Only Amar'e Stoudemire and Joe Johnson have signed deals with teams that had no other star (and Amar'e thought one of the other big name free agents would join him and is still planning on either Melo or Paul joining him).

So now let's go with your math. Less than 5% of lottery picks in ten years have become superstars. But only 16.6% of those superstars have ever left the team who drafted them (which is, incidentally, just the one guy, who, again, went to join another superstar who has remained with the team who drafted him). Now, even ignoring the fact that when a superstar leaves his team these days it is likely to pair up with another one, that still leaves every team a mere .57% (a little more than half a percent) chance of signing or trading for a superstar they did not draft over that same 10 year period.

Yeah. I think I like our odds through the draft. :grin:

 

I like our odds through the draft. It's probably the only option open anyways. No 'superstar' is out there to trade for. That is the truth. 2012 Dwight Howard will be a FA. Chris Paul i think to. So you have time to clear cap space between now and 2012 to go with that draft pick. Unless you think they can esemble a team like that Pistons team which i highly doubt with the way our defense has been sucking.

 

Here is a better draft analysis.


http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

If you want to trade for Iguodala or Granger, then a higher lottery pick(1-7) than a 8th-30th 1st round pick in a trade package. Celtics flipped the 5th pick for Ray Allen, apparently those lottery picks can be used to get an all-star also. OMG

 

I don't think I really understand the strong aversion to rebuilding. I mean, I totally understand not wanting to have our team go through the growing pains and the losing that comes with the process, but at the same time I think all fans want the same thing: Championships.

Without a rebuild, we simply aren't going to compete for a championship. I really don't want to end up like the Sixers or the Pistons, with completely unbalanced roster with some truly awful contracts bogging down our future.

If we rebuild the right way - which it seems like Morey is preparing to do, or already doing - and get a little lucky, we could be back to contending within about 3-5 years. But we'll have to take our fair share of lumps along the way. That's just how it is. We aren't the Lakers, or the Celtics, with a massive market and ridiculous pedigree. We'll have to rebuild like most every other franchise does.

 

I agree that Morey had already begun to "rebuild" a year and a half ago.

This is a YOUNG team. There are some veterans with experience (Brad Miller, 34; Shane Battier, 32), but if you don't count 30-year-old Yao (done) and 29-year-old Jared Jeffries (doesn't play), you are left with a 30-year-old (Luis Scola) who didn't have to play an 82-game schedule until he was 27 (even with Team Argentina play, he's got fewer miles than most 30-year-old NBA players) . . . and NO ONE ELSE ON THE ROSTER IS OLDER THAN 27!!!

Kevin Martin (27)
Chuck Hayes (27)
Aaron Brooks (25)
Courtney Lee (25)
Kyle Lowry (24)
Jordan Hill (23)
Terrence Williams (23)
Chase Budinger (22)
Ishmael Smith (22)
Patrick Patterson (21)

With Yao, Jeffries and Battier all free agents this summer, the Rockets will assuredly get even younger next year, all without necessarily getting worse. When people talk about "playing the young guys" . . . we already are. Other than limiting Brad Miller's minutes in favor of Jordan Hill (which, after tonight, may actually happen), there's not much that needs to be done to move this franchise in the right direction on that front. I'm sure that Terrence Williams will eventually be given a chance to contribute; and if he can show that he's capable of playing critical minutes on defense, you may have your Battier replacement right there.

The Rockets started rebuilding when they traded Rafer Alston (then, 32) for Kyle Lowry (then, not even 23 yet) in 2009, and proceeded further down that road when they got younger at the SG (then, an "old" 30-year-old McGrady for just-turned-27 Kevin Martin) and at backup PF (26-year-old Carl Landry for 22-year-old Jordan Hill) and added future picks. All of this rebuilding was done without necessarily costing the team much in the way of victories.

And I think that trend will continue. For better for worse.

 

This is a really good post. For some reason I thought Chuck Hayes was older, must be the hair lol.
As far as the thread topic (which is an interesting contribution itself)...

There are things we can't control:

Ping pong balls to determine lottery order (even if we tank)
Superstars wanting to play here (or become available)
Bad draft classes

But we can control:

Drafting the best we can with the picks we do have
Willingness to trade for a star (when they do become available)
Willingness to trade players for a high pick to get a star (if available)
Gambling on players who are undervalued (and perhaps could develop into stars)
Developing your current team to create/coach a contender (Read: Win 55+ games/Develop top 5 defense)

I think we should worry about what we can control, and not what we can't (and I think the Rox staff have shown this same line of thinking). There are odds of failure with everything, we should worry about the odds we can control.

As far as tanking (which the team can also control), losing sucks (and is a habit just like winning is a habit or culture) and fans (like myself) don't want to pay hard earned money to watch a team/organization essentially throw games they could win. And from the looks of the odds of finding a star in this next draft class, I agree with others that this isn't the year to tank if you are going to do it.

 

WTF is Greg Oden doing on your 2nd-tier list?

The guy has been in the league for 4 years and hes played what, 40 games?

 

I never thought he was a potential franchise player. I thought he was a potential bubble boy like Yao.

 

Yeah, you mentioned it. What you didn't mention was that the league changed the rules after that draft to make it much harder to tank and get the top pick. Much harder. Did I mention that they made it harder? OK, I mentioned that. Good.

 

Great post. I don't know that I've ever seen the relative wear and tear on Luis Scola at age 30 described better. Of course, your point about the youth of the team is unassailable. (or should be!)

 

It's like fans think if you get any pick after the 1st pick, it's worthless. The draft is not that simple. The available and talent drops with each pick, but it's not a cutoff point at #1. Each organization has different resources allocated for scouting, which is a big part of the pick.

Each team's board is different. For example, Roy was Morey and Pritchard's primary target, but he wasn't the #1 pick. Blazers pritch slapped Morey for the 6th pick to get Roy, which is way better than Rudy Gay(8th) or Battier. While the Timbrwolves, who have drafted poorly for 20 years, saw Foye as a better pick. The Raptors had Bargnani as their #1 target.

 

Here's some facts - In the 2010 All star game:

The average pick in the draft for the Eastern starters: 2.6

Western Starters: 8.2

Eastern Reserves: 13 (of 8 players)

Western reserves: 5.7 (of 10 players)

Total Average Pick Number of players: 7.57


Interpret however you see fit

 

Bargnani was a wayyyy better pick.

Roy came with huge risk, The teams that passed get an A draft grade.

 

who is he?

 

Former coach of the Colts.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE

 

I don't think a lot of people have an aversion to rebuilding. It's just the idiotic way some people want to do it - their definition of rebuilding, which involves being really bad to get a high draft pick - that people have an aversion to. The people who want to do that don't understand that we've been rebuilding for some time now. The team has acquired a lot of young talent -- players that other teams that are rebuilding would love to have. People in favor of "blowing it up and starting over" ignore what the Rockets have been doing, and how far along in the process we already are. And they overlook the fact that more players have been drafted as "franchise players" (that's what the team thought they would be) than there are actual franchise players in the league right now. The Rockets got Terrence Williams for a pittance. They didn't have to tank to get him. Maybe he'll work out, and maybe not, but they acquired talent the smart way. They're rebuilding the smart way, as they go along.