Tanks, but NO Tanks: The lottery odds against drafting a franchise player

It's kind of hard to give you specific proposals without knowing what draft positions each team will have. I would listen to any and all offers for Scola and Martin though. I don't know of any specific offers that are available to us.. I just know that Scola, Martin, and Brooks are not good enough to get you a championship. With a healthy Yao and another move for an Iguodala/Wallace type player, I could see it.. without him, no chance. They are three offensively orientated players who are all below-average defenders.

I will say that I would be intrigued by a Martin for Mayo & Thabeet proposal, for instance. That would give us a legitimate shot blocking threat along with a younger, cheaper SG that probably has at the least a similar ceiling to Martin (though not there yet.)

 

You have confidence in Morey, yet you don't have confidence that he can rebuild the Rockets while still having a competitive team, which is what he's obviously doing right now. Pardon me, but I don't have confidence in your kind of confidence, with all due respect.

 

Deckard -- there's only so much you can do with the 14th and above draft pick slots. I don't know why you're comparing late lottery or even late 1st round selections to a top five pick. If you think he can rebuild this team into a championship contender while only using late lottery or #20s 1st round draft picks, I fear that you have too much confidence in him.

We have a competitive team.. we'll be competing for the 6th - 8th seed year in and year out with our current squad. We'll always be too good for a high draft position and too bad to be a legitimate contender -- we're in the NBA's purgatory.

Agreed about the Lakers.. but the fact remains that they still got out of there before it was too late. We didn't. We're not in the same situation as them.

The odds of winning a championship are slim no matter which route you take -- trading for pieces or going through the draft. Just as you say there are few franchise players that emerge from the drafts, there are even fewer trades of franchise players that happen.

But say one does become available again -- Chris Paul for example. And let's take our two different routes to rebuilding.

You want to keep our core players while trading our assets for upgrades. Ok, hypothetically, say we traded Battier, Jeffries, Patterson and the NY 2012 for Iguodala. Then Paul becomes available. Who are you going to trade for them? Odds are they're not going to want high-priced players that are in their late 20s to build around.

Now let's say instead of staying the course, we traded some of our core guys and landed a top three pick, which we drafted Perry Jones with. That is MUCH more appealing to New Orleans than a bunch of 2nd tier stars that are being paid 10+ million a year.

Rebuilding through the draft doesn't necessarily mean you have to keep the draft choices -- high draft picks are probably amongst the most coveted assets in basketball.

 

Shaq wanted to go to LA and bryant said that he would only play for LA. Sorry, but Houston just doesn't seem to be that kind of market. To me it's not a good comparison.

 

I'm not advocating tanking but posters here are delusional if you think you can be contenders now-a-days with a bunch decent super role players (that don't play good team defense). The trading for lower tier NBA "stars" method will do nothing more that get you a low seeding and get bounced early in the playoffs.

 

I don't agree that we're in the NBA's "pergatory." Now, we're in the NBA's Hell of Injury, I certainly wouldn't argue that. Look, I agree that it would be great to snag a top 5 pick. I'm pretty sure Morey would like to snag a top five pick as well, and it's my strong belief that he's been trying to do just that. Not by trading away our vets to play "the young guys," but by trading for one. The Knicks deal is a perfect example. It's a gamble. I don't think anyone thought the Knicks were going to dramatically improve any time soon when he managed to get their 2012 first round pick, top five protected, or the right to swap spots with New York in 2011. That trade was planning ahead in order to improve through the draft, or to improve by trading those draft assets. I think that was pretty damned smart and doing exactly what you're talking about, and doing it without tanking, which is what you and DD, among others, are calling for... call it what you like, but that's what it amounts to.

We are far more likely to get a top five pick via trade than by tanking and using our own draft position in the lottery, which is in itself a giant roll of the dice. A gamble I am against if it means dismantling a competitive team.

 

So how do teams get to be elite?

 

To add to Deckard's point: Getting elite talent through high picks is not just a matter of Morey being good, it's still about being lucky. First, there's a matter of the lottery, even the worst record only gives you a 25% chance at being #1. And then even with a high pick, and assuming Morey has a 100% chance of selecting the best player available at that spot, he can't pick a superstar if none is in the draft at that point.

Look, for example at the Rockets draft history from 1999 to 2002, they either had or ended up with a top 10 pick each year. The guys they added were Francis (2nd), Griffin (7th), Collier (15th, traded 9th overall pick for him) and Yao (1st). Pretty good spots.

Now, you can blame CD and Rudy for not being great drafters and say Morey will do better, but even an 100% accurate drafter can't get a Lebron/Kobe/Wade/Howard-level player out of these drafts because none were available.

Yao didn't quite take the Rockets above a 50-55 win status, and Francis was a stat stuffer that didn't take his team to anything better than average, but these guys were pretty much as good as it gets in these drafts (Stoudemire in 2002 may be better, but it's not like he won a title, either).

Griffin was a mistake, but there ain't no Lebron or Wade there at the 7th spot in 2001 (Joe Johnson is the best among them, and he's another B-level star that people are complaining about). And I can't see anyone available at 9 in 2000 that would have taken the team to the promised land, even if we have an 100% accurate drafter.

 

They work hard and get lucky.

 

I'd trade most of our roster for Griffin, as long as he can stay uninjured, he's going to be one of the best players ever, if/when he develops 12-15 ft range.

Griffin is in his first year, needs some refinement and experience (i understand he's ONLY putting up the same stats as hakeem did in his rookie year with no jumpshot), but they're likely to add another draft piece next year and as blake develops his game, yeah, only crappy mismanagement can hold that guy back.

 

Good management + luck

 

The Lakers are championship team because they are the Lakers. You think Shaq would have signed with them if they were the Memphis Grizzlies? You think LeBron and the big three would have colluded to played for the Timberwolves? The big market teams get the big fish. They don't need draft picks. It's unfair. But that what it is.

Now, if you are a small market team like San Antonio, what you can do is combine tanking with good management.

You can still have a championship team if you get to draft a superstar and the guy doesn't get major injuries. Then with good management, you can build around that guy with talented role players, second tier stars, etc.

 

I swear some of you people dont want anything in clutchfans.


You dont want draft picks
Dont want trades for better players
Dont want anything but role players
Dont want to lose your role players
Dont think we can sign free agents
Dont think we can do trades even with all of our assets
Dont want to do anything but stockpile role players
Dont want to do anything with these role players
Dont want to play the guys we draft
Dont want to play the guys we trade for
Dont want the youngster to get playing time
Like having older players about to decline in value
Like for them to get as many chances to be injured
Hope they dont get injured as your playoff chances
surprised when they ultimately do exactly what you fear. which is get injured
Man the fans are worse than the GM and owner

 

I agree that the New York trade was smart.. but it didn't work out. So in the end, who cares? All that matters is results. I just worry that we're going to keep down this path.. call it the Gary Kubiak path.. with the mentality that one day, we'll be in perfect position to land this franchise savior. I just don't see it.. I want to fire the man and start over.

I also agree that it's more likely we get a top five draft pick by trading for it.. but you would agree that it's a lot easier to trade into the top five when you have a top ten pick yourself.

In the end, it comes down to fans who are willing to take a step back now in order to take a greater step forward in the future. You disagree -- that's fine, you're entitled to it. But a lot of us feel like we've come as far as we're going to go with our current group of players. I love the Rockets -- I'll fight (within reason..) anyone who tries to tell me I'm not a real Rockets fan. I just want to get back to our glory days and I don't see it happening with our current group of players/assets. The Carmelo drama and the Yao saga were the final nails in the coffin for me.

I understand the draft is not a sure thing. I know the way that I want to go is not a quick-fix or overnight solution. It takes some skill and luck to land a franchise player through the draft. But as bad as Francis was for us, he was still the main piece in landing McGrady -- which brings me back to my earlier point that even if you don't land the sure thing HOF, having these draft picks could give you a big leg up in trading for an elite player.

The Hornets don't want to trade Chris Paul for Aaron Brooks, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. They want someone they can sell their fans on, to excite their fan base about their future. Those kinds of players most often come from the top of the draft. It's the reason that New Jersey could be so awful last year yet have the most attractive pieces for a Carmelo deal. The Nets didn't add any significant talent this off-season that they're trying to trade for Carmelo.. they're attempting to trade their #3 draft pick for him.

 

Coming really close to getting a high pick is nice.. but it's time we actually sealed the deal. I'm tired of the "damn! we almost had a deal for a top pick.. maybe next year!" mentality. We don't have a lot of time.. Scola is already 30.

And what GM would go on record as being FOR tanking? No GM or owner in their right mind would ever say that they want their own team to lose. I agree that the NY trade was smart... but you're right, it didn't work out -- which is all that matters. Ideally, you want to be a competitive team who is able to steal a bad team's high lottery pick (Detroit Pistons -- Darko). The reality of that is that it rarely happens.

I just don't see the 'stay the course' approach as being in the best interest for the long time success of this franchise. Just my opinion -- it's obviously heavily disagreed with.

 

You know what Morey should do, to land us a superstar/supertalent????

Trade for Kevin Love, offer every single player/pick you can, he is what an ideal PF will be in the future, he is a:

FG 45%
3P 40%
FT 88%
rebs 15
Points 20

I know his team is horrible, but this guy is a STUD, and 22y, once again, he is what PFs will be in the future, rebound machines, with perimeter scoring

And yes, you don´t tank, what you do is trade for young studs that are on teams that quit on them, an immediate example can be Demarcus Cousins, or anticipate the explosion of an athlete (DM did this with Kevin Love)....

People that think we should tank are the ones that said that OKC would compete for the title this year, they won´t, they were the ones that said that Portland had a great future, they don´t have a great future.

Too much unpredictability for any intelligent GM to do, good GMs do everything they can, to keep the maximum control about the future of the franchise, and that is what DM will do.

PeAcE

 

Interesting, you came to that conclusion in less than a year? After all, every single one of the Rockets' long-term contracts were acquired in the last year.

You usually have to have something built before rebuilding.

 

Kevin Martin is the only one in the Rockets core three that has been on the team for less than a year -- and I feel comfortable in knowing exactly what type of player Martin is and what he brings to the table.

The fact that neither Brooks nor Scola hadn't signed long-term extensions prior to last year doesn't mean we weren't building around them? I figured that was obvious..