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Swift: Negative trade value

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Major, Jun 30, 2006.

  1. Major

    Major Member

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    I'm seeing a lot of posts on here that suggest that the #8 pick for Battier might be sorta-almost-acceptable, but adding Swift was "giving up too much". If you look at Swift's role in this, though, it's pretty clear it was the Rockets' idea to give him up, and Memphis likely did not want him.

    For starters, consider that Memphis had rights to Swift last year and could have signed him to any deal they wanted. They made no attempt to match the deal the Rockets offered, which tells you that they didn't feel him worth that much. In the year since, what has changed? Swift has done nothing to increase his value. He continued his mediocre performance, and if anything, dispelled the notion that he would be better if there were no logjam at PF as there was in Memphis. In other words, if he was a free agent today, he'd be worth less than he was last year.

    So, last summer, if Memphis didn't feel him worth the contract we offered, why would they think so this year? They could have kept him had they wanted to without losing anybody.

    I think it's pretty clear that the Rockets decided the Swift signing was a mistake, and from their perspective, this was an opportunity to get rid of that contract for a player they felt could be productive in their system. It's also pretty obvious that Memphis would have preferred just a Gay-for-Battier trade, because there's no reason they'd want Swift now as opposed to last year. In other words, Swift actually had negative trade value to both teams - which makes the deal make more sense if you believe Gay to have more value than Battier.

    That said, I also see everyone saying how Gay has so much potential, etc, etc. Let's look at that. In a draft devoid of superstars but filled with rotation-level players, seven mostly terrible teams all needing "go to" guys passed up on Gay. That should tell you what people think of him. If he was such a surefire pick, or even a good risk, he would have been taken earlier in the draft. It would be one thing if the players taken ahead of him were potential superstars, but they aren't - they are simply decent players but with fewer concerns. If terrible teams in desperate need of talent are choosing decent players over a potential star, that should raise tons of questions about that potential star.

    As was noted by Jerry West, the Rockets had *five* guys they were interested in. It's pretty clear they had no interest whatsoever in Rudy Gay based on their draft prep. Whether that was a good or bad decision, we'll find out down the road - but a lot of other teams that did their homework on the top players seem to have come to the same conclusion.

    That's not to say this was a good or bad trade (that'll only be seen in the next year or so), but it likely wasn't Memphis wanting Swift, so I doubt the Rockets feel they gave up too much in trading the #8 for Battier, and getting rid of Swift's contract.
     
  2. Williamson

    Williamson JOSH CHRISTOPHER ONLY FAN
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    I agree, but I still hate that we gave up two players for one when our depth is so utterly lacking. I feel like we should have at least talked them into giving us Alexander Johnson or something! A future second rounder! Something!
     
  3. gunn

    gunn Contributing Member

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    These are the type of things that will be determined on the court, not in a "war room". These GMs have no crystal ball, and are wrong more often than not.
     
  4. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I felt that Stro had at least a zero trade value, not negative. But we don't really have any idea of how other NBA teams feel about him. At least Stro was a warm body who could play 20 mins/game. I won't miss him at all.

    CD & Moneyballman are on the clock starting in 2 1/2 hours.
     
  5. WoodlandsBoy

    WoodlandsBoy Contributing Member

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    Back when Swift was with Memphis he wanted to get paid $10mil+/year and Memphis didn't want to pay that much. They wanted to pay him what we signed him for and I am pretty sure that they would not have made the deal if JHoward was included instead of Swift. Anything else is just pure spin.

    Juan Howard is basically usless. His +/- is one of the worst for a starter in the western conference.

    That is why everyone on this board knows that if JHoward was included that would be okay but because he truly is the negative asset not Swift. Swift is an asset. Howard is a liability.

    We basically have 3 assets now, we traded 2 assets for one. That is why we are pissed. We have 3 legit NBA players on this roster. All others are CBA. We should have had 5 NBA players if we traded the #8 pick but somehow we got robbed and ended up with 3.

    First off, THE ONLY REASON YOU do a draft day trade is if you are trading picks so that you can have input in the new draft choice. In this case we got no draft picks so it makes no sense to make a draft day move when you get no picks in the same draft. We should have kept him and made a trade later if we didn't like Gay.

    Anyway it was a bad day. Even worse outlook for this year. We just don't have anyway to make a good team this year. We cannot win NOW even though our management thinks we can. Especailly with this move.
     
  6. aussie rocket

    aussie rocket Member

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    Agreed about Swift. He was dead weight at best.

    I would of taken less for him.

    there's no doubt to me Memphis has no plans for him, and will be trying to move him before the new season. Problem for them will be no ones likely to want him.

    Haaa, then i'll manage a smile.
     
  7. rimbaud

    rimbaud Contributing Member
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    It could also bolster your argument that West has not had a good draft in Memphis. The only players on the Grizz that he "picked" in the draft are Dahntay Jones (the Celts picked him for the Grizz and he gave up Marcus Bell who is now playing well) and Hakim Warrick (who he did not want to the point that he didn't even remember where he went to school).

    Kobe was his best pick in the 90's, obviously, and Jones was a good choice in '94 but other than that only Fisher and Devean George have been decent. Obviously most of his picks have been in the 20's but consider that from '96 CD drafted Othella Harrington, Mobley, Kenny Thomas, and Luther Head all after 20 as well.

    West is a good GM but it has been a while since he made a "great discovery" or outhought the league on draft day.
     
  8. Clutch

    Clutch Administrator
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    I think that's exactly right. Swift being part of the deal was a requirement on the Rockets' end .. the Grizzlies did not want him (necessarily).

    However, it's very telling that Swift went from free agent coup of the summer to negative value contract in less than a year under JVG. I fully expect his play in Memphis to turn him back in to a possible trading asset once again.

    I've heard that a few times though - 'what does it tell you if the other 7 teams passed on him?' It tells me that many of those teams had different needs, or liked a different player for them. For example, the Rockets liked "5 guys" in this draft, according to West. We know Roy was one of them, we think Shelden was one of them, and it's assumed Foye was one of them since West said that was the final guy and the Grizzlies brass erupted in to celebration when he was picked.

    So the Rockets didn't like 2 of the top 4 players in this draft? How did they go top 4 then?

    Many players have slid for whatever reason - Paul Pierce and Caron Butler come to mind. I believe the Rockets weren't drawn to Rudy Gay because of his disappearance in games and his pre-draft interview. They probably felt he didn't have a passion for it, but I don't know.
     
  9. Major

    Major Member

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    If that were the case, Memphis would have made an offer similar to what we offered him - they didn't. In fact, they made no attempt to sign him at all last summer.

    This is not at all true. Trades happen all the time with draft picks only going one way. For example, the #7 pick for Telfair. You make draft day trades if you don't want the pick and don't want to risk getting stuck with a less-than-tradable commodity at that pick (when the trade was made, all we knew was that our 5 guys weren't available - it was unclear who specifically was available).
     
  10. michecon

    michecon Contributing Member

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    It's Houston's annual "high hope then let go for nothing" affair. Nothing more here.
     
  11. Major

    Major Member

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    I think this is definitely possible - and it would be an indictment of Van Gundy, or at least his ability to deal with rookies. But Swift was also a free agent coup because he supposedly had a lot of untapped potential, and wasn't able to show it because of limited playing time, etc. His year away may have just dispelled that notion. He's been with something like 4 coaches now in his time in the league and hasn't even fulfilled expectations. Perhaps he will this time, but it also might be just becoming clear that he's not what people had hoped he'd be.

    I hope he'll get more minutes somewhere and we'll get a chance to find out, though. He almost seems like a perfect fit in a Phoenix style run-and-gun system.
     
  12. Major

    Major Member

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    This certainly could be. It just seems strange if Gay was really a guy with star potential while some of the others were more "rotation players". Even if they were better fits, it seems with teams that bad, you'd just take best-available talent. Perhaps after doing the research, the other guys are potential stars as well - I didn't pay attention to the pre-draft enough to really know.
     
  13. michecon

    michecon Contributing Member

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    Is that the reason Atlanta deal goes sour? They were afraid we would take Shelden ourself? Man, we should've had a better contagent plan.
     
  14. michecon

    michecon Contributing Member

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    Also, Swift being a bust is because people had high hopes of him replacing JH. As a 2-position backup. He was OK.
     
  15. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    I think however, the only reason the negative connotation is attached to his name and he's considered a bust is simply due to those expectations. If you take him for what he is, and take his production at face value, he is in no way overpaid. He gave you 9 points and 4.5 rebounds a game in only 20 minutes of play. For a backup big man at that production, $5million/year is a very reasonable price tag. That's why it makes no sense that they would simply discard him like an old shoe as if he had negative trade value. For his production, at his cost, setting aside all the bullsh*t (the potential etc.) he is a commodity and should atleast have some positive trade value.

    This trade reeks of JVG in that sense that it seems like he just angrily threw Swift in because he's fed up with him, without taking the time to assess what he could net in other seperate deals.
     
  16. txppratt

    txppratt Contributing Member

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    to me i see stro having a very high value in a running type of offense like phoenix, dallas, or new jersey...

    why could we not have gotten more for him from a team who plays to stro's strengths? (basically teams who let their athletes win games for them)
     
  17. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    It truly makes no sense. Atlanta could have drafted Roy. Neither Minnesota nor Portland need a PF like Shelden. We draft Shelden, trade him and Luther Head to Atlanta for John Edwards (who? salaries match, though) and Roy. Atlanta gets Shelden cheaper. Atlanta gets Head. Atlanta gives up, well, nothing (again, Edwards who??). We get Roy, but give up Head. We still have Swift, but he is still a movable asset.
     
  18. qiz264

    qiz264 Member

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    Rockets can give up what they don't like for nothing. Looking at what they have done on the trade of Derek Anderson last year, Swift is just another example...
     
  19. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
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    Stromile Swift has neither brains nor motivation. He will never amount to anything. Yada yada athleticism yada dunks yada highlight reel yada yada yada. It matters what a player has above the neck. That's the moral, and that's why he's now fairly valued as dead weight, and if Rudy Tomjanovich had been coach of the Rockets for the last year, the story would be not one whit different.
     
  20. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    You know........

    If indeed it is true that including Stro in this deal instead of somebody else was the Rocket's idea...........then

    who was Jerry proposing that we trade for Battier?

    We don't have any other pieces......besides Juwan. I don't see why Jerry would want Rafer or even expect that that we would move out our only PG in a straight up deal. Would he have wanted us to trade an injured probably worthless Bobby Sura and some other pieces part to make this deal work?

    If it was the Rockets that were wanting to move Stromile instead of Juwan, pray tell me, why would they want to move Stro over Juwan?????

    It just doesn't make sense. Not even CD or Van Gundy would think that Stromile has less value than Juwan.

    It makes you wonder if the reason that the Rox moved Stro instead of Juwan is because they already have another trade on the table for Juwan that cannot be consumated until everything else plays out with the TE deal and free agency. The deal may be contingent on what happens with our MLE and our TE.

    For what other reason would they want to move Stromile before Juwan??
     

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