Super Bowl XLV - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers

Your math is off. It's not the same yardage. Driving for a game-winning touchdown is longer than driving for a game-tying FG, all things being equal.

 

Tonight's QB ratings...

Rodgers... 111.5

Big Ben... 77.4

Aaron is just flat out better.

 

They were around the 5 yard line - you need to get to the 25-30 to get the FG. That's 65-70 yards. AND you have to then make the field goal.

If you kickoff, the Steelers will generally get the ball around the 30 (and that's where they got it except for the late-hit penalty). That's 70 yards.

 

lol @ dom capers getting a super bowl ring before the texans even sniff the playoffs

 

How bout them Packers!!!!

My voice is gonna be so shot in the morning...

Oh well! :grin:

 

As a non fan of both teams, all I wanted was a good close game. We got that plus more.
Love tomlin's quote after the game, something like, "Fighters get knocked out. Gun slingers get shot. This happens.", when asked if he was disappointed about the loss. Just watching him coach gets me pumped up.

And wow, rodgers is one lucky sob. He is banging brooklyn's finest in vanessa, now he has a SB ring.

 

Who is he banging??

 

But its not the same. Having to go 70 yards to get to the 30 for a FG is dramatically diffrent than having to go 70 yards for a TD. For the Steelers falling 1 yard short needing a TD and the game is over. Falling 1 yard short needing a FG, the FG is just 1 yard longer.

 

Maybe. Ben still has more rings.

 

Sure - but if the Packers convert the 4th down, they win right there (say 20-30% of the time). And getting the 70 yards for the field goal isn't all the Steelers would need - they need to still hit the FG, so the Packers get another 25%ish chance to win given that Suisham is not a particularly good kicker. And even that only results in a tie instead of a win. In the TD scenario, they just need to get the 70 yards and they win.

So if the Packers go for it, they win if any of the following happen:

* They convert the 4th down OR
* They fail but prevent the Steelers from getting 70ish yards OR
* They fail on that but the Steelers miss the FG OR
* They fail yet again but win in OT

If the Packers kick the FG, they win if:

* They prevent the Steelers from getting 70ish yards

If you do the math of the odds of each scenario, the Packers win a whole lot more in scenario #1 than #2.

 

That is ridiculous. As "amazing" as Rodgers was, they had to fight tooth and nail to keep Pittsburgh from stealing the game. It's like saying if the Steeler's hadn't turned it over 3 times they would have won this running away. Hell, if Mendenhall hadn't fumbled in the 4th they might have won.

 

Was rootin' for the Steelers, but I'm fine with either team winning. As long as it isn't the New York Jets, I don't care who it is.


Plus, the majority of the Steeler squad has felt the celebration experience, so it's about time the new look Green Bay Packers felt it as well.

 

Here's some simplified math using estimates of each scenario. Let's say:

25% they convert 4th and 6.
70% they stop the Steelers from getting 70ish yards
20% Steelers miss a FG
50/50 if they go to OT

By kicking the FG, the Packers had a 70% chance of winning.

If they had gone for it, they have

25% chance to win by converting
In the remaining 75% of the time, they win 70% of that - 52.5% there (0.70 x 0.75) - total now at 77.5%.
In the remaining 22.5% of the time, they they win 20% of the time if the Steelers miss the FG - 4.5% there (0.225 x 0.20). That's a total of 82% now.
In the 18% of the time they go to OT, they win 50% of the time - that's 9% more.

That's a total of winning 91% of the time as opposed to 70%.

 

That was a freakin' good game! That is all.

 

You cared enough to scream?

..I mean I was pulling for the steelers....but I'm not the least bit upset.

 

i will probably sound like a different person at work tomorrow. was pretty much cussing and screaming the whole game. parents and girlfriend thought i was going crazy. :grin: fireworks were going off and tons of drunk folks around here.

 

Well at the party I went to, this dude was a hardcore Pittsburgh fan who moved from Pittsburgh 3 years ago. And lets just say I was giving him one hard ass time.