http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=OffseasonPredictions09-WestStandings On Tuesday, we forecast the East, and today it's the West. One note of explanation, as covered yesterday: The order of finish is more important in these predictions than the exact number of wins and losses. When 53 individuals vote, they will almost never all agree that one team will win as many as, let's say, 65 games, or that another team will win only 20 games, even though we know these things happen frequently. Why? Because these are extreme results that happen when pretty much everything goes right or everything goes wrong for a team. The panel collectively takes a more measured view, so the forecasts for wins and losses tend to float toward the middle. Predicted Standings for Western Conference: 2009-10 CONF TEAM W L PCT 09 W 09 L 09 PCT 1 Los Angeles Lakers 62 20 .756 65 17 .793 Our forecasters say the champion Lakers will edge the Cavs for best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs, which will come in handy if we get a Kobe-LeBron showdown. That's the only close race the Lakers will be in, according to our panel, which doesn't seem too worried about potential disruptions by Ron Artest. 2 San Antonio Spurs 54 28 .659 54 28 .659 The aging Spurs appear to be back in business, though in fact they somehow managed 54 wins and the No. 3 seed last season before being bounced in Round 1. This time around, their hopes rest on a return to health by Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili and the additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair. 3 Portland Trail Blazers 52 30 .634 54 28 .659 Can Portland become the proverbial "team nobody wants to face" in the Western Conference playoffs? Or are they ready for true contender status? Expectations are large, as are the variables: Can Greg Oden find himself? How will Andre Miller's go-go style mesh with the walk-it-up Blazers? And who's the starting point guard, anyway? 4 Denver Nuggets 51 31 .622 54 28 .659 The Nuggets won't sneak up on anyone this year, and perhaps they won't need to. With largely the same roster as they had in May, Denver is counting on good health and the further development of Carmelo Anthony to stay among the West's best. If these predictions hold, they might get a playoff rematch with the Lakers. 5 Dallas Mavericks 50 32 .610 50 32 .610 The Mavs had a topsy-turvy summer that, according to our panel, will leave them right where they were last season: 50-32, and in the middle of the pack. They brought back Jason Kidd and acquired Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden, but lost a battle of wits with Orlando for Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat. Expect the moves to keep coming. 6 Utah Jazz 47 35 .573 48 34 .585 Utah was a trendy name a year ago, but barely rates a mention now, for a couple of reasons: The team is coming off a disappointing season, and the Carlos Boozer situation is unresolved. But the Jazz still have a potent roster led by Deron Williams, and the dark-horse label seems to fit this team as well as any other in the West. 7 New Orleans Hornets 47 35 .573 49 33 .598 It was a disappointing season in New Orleans, relative to the high expectations they started with, but they still won 49 games and they still have Chris Paul. The Hornets are another of the West's "if everything breaks right" contenders, as they need Julian Wright, Ike Diogu and Hilton Armstrong to do more to justify being lottery picks. 8 Phoenix Suns 42 40 .512 46 36 .561 The Suns were a lottery team last season, but a good one, winning 46 despite a coaching change and an eye injury to Amare Stoudemire. Now Shaq's gone, and the speed game is back, led by Steve Nash. If Amare returns to full health, the Suns will light it up again. But will that be enough for more than 8th best in the West? 9 Houston Rockets 37 45 .451 53 29 .646 The Rockets were a remarkable story last season, taking the Lakers to seven games without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. Now Houston is in a transition year, as Yao appears out for the season and T-Mac's return is iffy. One thing does seem certain: The Rockets will scrap and claw and make every opponent's W well-earned. 10 Los Angeles Clippers 33 49 .402 19 63 .232 Giddy Clippers fans might not appreciate this forecast, but keep in mind: A 33-49 record would be a 14-game leap, and L.A. has been such a disheveled franchise it's going to have to prove itself to our panel. That said, some see the Clips winning as many as 50 games, thanks in large part to the arrival of Blake Griffin. 11 Oklahoma City Thunder 32 50 .390 23 59 .280 No West bandwagon is more crowded than OKC's, with our panel seeing the team that started 1-16 a year ago making the leap to mediocrity. Given the age of Kevin Durant (20), Russell Westbrook (20), Jeff Green (23) and newcomer James Harden (20), it's not hard to see what the excitement is about. But it will be hard to see them on TV. 12 Golden State Warriors 31 51 .378 29 53 .354 Golden State celebrated its crowning as Team Turmoil with another heaping helping of controversy, as putative team leader Stephen Jackson reportedly asked to be traded to a good team. The talent of such youngsters as Monta Ellis and Anthony Randolph is undeniable, but clearly our panelists just do not trust the Warriors to pull it together. 13 Minn. Timberwolves 26 56 .317 24 58 .293 Minnesota's noisy offseason of trades, controversial draft picks, the firing of Kevin McHale, the hiring of Kurt Rambis and a failed bid to sign Ricky Rubio is likely to be followed by a quiet season on the hardwood. The immediate future is about getting Al Jefferson healthy and seeing what youngsters Kevin Love and Jonny Flynn can do. 14 Memphis Grizzlies 25 57 .305 24 58 .293 The talent base is improving thanks to youngsters Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Hasheem Thabeet and Mike Conley. However, the arrival of Zach Randolph, our pick for Worst Newcomer, means that chemistry will continue to be an issue in Memphis, which also has its sights set on the 34-year-old Allen Iverson. Go figure. 15 Sacramento Kings 21 61 .256 17 65 .207 The Kings take the honors as the NBA's worst team, both in last season's standings and this season's projections. Reasons for optimism include a return to health for Kevin Martin and the arrival of Tyreke Evans, but even that is a bit troubling, as they might end up playing the same position. Expect another long year in Sac-Town. Eh, That sounds about right to me.
With a healthy Yao, this team is championship material. Not because he is so great. But because he takes up alot of space in the paint and allows us to do the one thing few if any teams can match...play sick, shutdown, hardcore defense. The occasional 20pt game is when the Rockets really shine. A perimeter based team goes to the dogs in this league unless you have Jordan or Kobe or Lebron type players. And last time I checked.... No healthy Yao. We don't make the playoffs. And after this years high...thats going to be a BIG come down.
Yeah, its hard for me to argue with that. The deciding factor betweeen us making and missing the playoffs will likely be McGrady. This will be his biggest test yet.
for some reason i think were gonna be alot better than people wanna believe, 6th to 8th seed, with a healthy mcgrady maybe 5th, i dont know why i just feel that way
Hopefully McGrady will come back soon. As you guys mentioned, I'd hate to miss playoffs. Am I the only one who thinks East can be better than West next year?
if mcgrady is at full health and in uniform for over 75 games, i would bet good money we won't be missing the playoffs this year.
Agreed. Our overall talent, depth and coaching is too good to not make the playoffs with a healthy Mac.
I still think we are better then NO and Phoenix, but we'll see. I say we still make the playoffs. Morey did say this morning that McGrady could be back December/January. He wants to get in sooner but they are slowing him down for precaution.
As things currently stand we seem like a border line playoff team, but at the same time we don't seem bad enough to get a top 5 pick, so i propose we load up on some draft picks, not tank the season, but try to steal Utah's NY 2010 unprotected pick for example.....so the Knicks can tank the season for us, or they can play their hearts out and still have the worst record in the league like they always do....
So 11th pick in the draft? Not bad, though its tough to make out where do end up in the West considering that there are so many factors.
John Hollinger, ESPN. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Group IV: Can I Send This Plate Back? Houston Rockets Medical problems pretty much ended Houston's season before it started, as Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady went under the knife and will contribute little, if anything. Meanwhile, the de facto swap of Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza bodes well for Houston's future but doesn't alter its present outlook much. That was the only major offseason move. Otherwise, Houston tried to supplement its future with the biggest run of property acquisitions since the Louisiana Purchase. Houston paid nearly $9 million to acquire the rights to Jermaine Taylor, Chase Budinger, Sergio Llull and David Andersen -- not their salaries, mind you, just the right to be the ones paying them -- but only Andersen is likely to be in the rotation this season. If the Rockets stay healthy and get bust-out years from Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry it's possible they can stay on the fringes of the playoff race, but it's more likely they'll struggle too much to score.
I see hate everywere i go Rockets this and that....But we will show what is team is made of(HEart of champion) This team whon't go down!!
I think the prediction of the 9th spot is rather optimistic with the current lineup. With Yao and a healthy, highly motivated TMac, everything changes. Then the team goes from rags to riches. But you know and I know that even if TMac and Yao come back it is highly unlikely that they finish the season. As Dr. Phil says (ha!), the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. The TMac/Yao experiment is over; only Les doesn't know that.
Honestly, I actually think one of the teams that didn't make the playoffs last year other then Phoenix (and definitely not the Clippers) will make the playoffs. I also think that the Rockets could easily be a 40-45 win team, whether that is enough to make the playoffs I can't say.
Sounds like they are predicting a Lakers-Cavs showdown......AGAIN. I wonder if they already started shooting commercials with Kobe and Lebron.
