Stromile Swift - Juwon Howard Comparison Revisited

I certainly did, every second. Did you watch the whole game and have you watched all of our games this season?

LOL. Clutter things up? Yeah, that's why Stro isn't playing. He clutters things up down there when he dunks the ball.

Look guys, I'm not saying Stro played a great game last night. He didn't. But you are going overboard blaming every faulty defense on him. If you are gonna play that way, we could go through the possessions in the first half and blow up Juwan so bad it isn't funny. Keep it real.

And no, Swift isn't an experiement at this point. We know what he is gonna give us. He's gonna miss some assignments but he is gonna give us an inside presence on both ends of the floor, and he is gonna negate some of those missed assignments with the eraser on top of the pogo stick he is.

And we know what Juwan is gonna give us. He's gonna can some jumpers, and he's gonna get cold for stretches and clang some jumpers, and he's gonna be too slow to rotate defensively and he's gonna get toasted by most starting PFs in this league. He's gonna play "smart" and all that. Yeah, he's a pretty good passer. So what.

For this team to go anywheres in the playoffs, we've got to have solid contributions from Swift, especially when the opposing team's PF is athletic.

In last night's game, lest any of you forget, they were rotating in Foster, Pollard, and Harrison at the big man spots. Those guys aren't exactly athletic, except for maybe Harrison a little bit, and then again he's not that athletic, he's just got a decent body.

Indiana's style and the talent they had on the floor last night is what I would say more conducive to Juwan's game. Even then, they still beat him up pretty good. Go back and look at tape of the first half. They were beating us at the PG and the PF spots............bad. Yao was having to help out Juwan and that put him in bad position with his own man. Some of you don't seem to understand that. They isolate Juwan and all of a sudden Yao has to decide to help Juwan or leave him out there by himself. If he helps, ball gets swung right to his man and then he's got to scramble back and is in bad position.

Now, take that Pacer team and insert Jermaine O'Neal into the starting lineup. Do we win that game with Juwan playing his usual game? Dare I say, I doubt it. Not unless we put Swift on the floor against Jermaine and Swift gives us something. We would have had to take our chances playing Swift against JOL, otherwise he eats up Juwan and works over Yao pretty good in the process.

You want to talk about the 4th quarter last night? Try talking about this whole season. Talk about Marion just literally torching Juwan to no end. Talk about Tim Duncan, talk about Dirk Nowitzki.

I tell you what. We've got San Antonio coming up. This season's numbers stand for themselves. Juwan's+/- numbers are there for all to see. And the most devastating is his +/- and Yao's +/- when they play together. But let's forget all that. We've got San Antonio and Dallas coming up. Let's see how effective Juwan is against both of those guys. And if Swift gets minutes against those guys, let's see how he does against them.

 

look no one thinks jho is amazing. but he's servicable. and on top of that he's probably best when he starts.

let him start. let stro come in. whoever is having the better game match up wise and what not can play the last 6 minutes in the 4th. aside from that keep the rotation fairly consistent.

that being said stro makes stupid mistakes. stro can't pass from the top. he isn't as good of a shooter. sure he can be on the highlights with a couple nice dunks but imagine if we had highlights of him not being able to catch the ball. he's alright as a back up.

but this incessant stro love has no logical reasoning behind it. unless all your concerned about are a couple of monster dunks.

 

My intent of analyzing each play is to try to understand better why JVG doesn't play Stro more. We know Stro is good for highlights but why doesn't he get more PT?

Well, my analysis demonstrates to you guys sitting on Stro's jock strap that he might introduce MORE PROBLEMS than he solves. Strike me down for making such an implication.

Everybody's love for Stro around here is really something just because he gets a few good dunks. I'm just trying to uncover why he doesn't get more PT. I WANT HIM to play to his potential. Beleive me. So far, he hasn't.

I already said next time Juwan plays in the 4th, I'll break down his play too. Then we'll have a better picture.

I'd bet more games are lost by mistakes then won by sensational plays. That's what.

Agreed. But that doesn't mean Stro needs to be our starter.

Swift is not particularly strong defensively. What makes you think Stro would have been so dramatically better. Juwan might get beat with quickness but Stro just breaks down entirely. Which is better? The guy that slows his man down but gets beat or the guy that lets him completely run free?

That's why you aren't the coach.

LOLOLOLOLOL. Those guys torch everybody in the league.

I plan to.

 

Stro has some mental lapses, no doubt. I was among the first to call him "lost'.

But's he's getting better. If he keeps this up, plays hard, play within the system, avoids wild post moves, I would give him more minutes.

JH can start, but having Stro out there can change the pace of the game.

 

Very very very well said.

 

You don't have to focus only on crunch time. Just look at what Juwan did while he was on the court, and what Stromile did while he was on the court. Stro might make more mental mistakes, but there are a ton of plays Juwan screws up as well due to lack of physical skills.

 

Fine. Neither player is adequate but both did enough last night to win the game. Crunch time needs a little extra focus because that's when so many games are decided. Unlike MLB (which does the opposite), when teams in the NBA get a lead, there is a gravitational force that pulls their effort down and invariably games will still be decided during the 4th quarter. Take last night for example. I like watching complete games, but when I only see the 2nd half of games, it seems like I didn't miss anything.

 

Alright, if I get a chance, I'll look at Juwan's play in the 1st quarter. But you have to put more emphasis on the 4th quarter ...that's what decides games.

The question is, does Juwan's lack of physical skills impact the outcome of the game. We all know Juwan isn't as physically gifted but... We'll find out.

 

By the same token, I am not riding Stro's jock strap. I'm just pointing out how inadequate Juwan is at the 4 and the fact that we SHOULD give Stro minutes because Juwan usually has a negative effect when he is on the floor. It isn't because Stro is so great. It is because Juwan is so bad for this team most of the time.

I'm not trying to figure out why Stro isn't starting. I'm trying to figure out why Juwan is starting and getting so many minutes when he costs us so much every night. You say it is because Stro would cost us even more. I say the numbers don't say that. They say Stro would cost us less, less mismatches, and less SLOW rotations.

I do not love Stro as a player. I just dislike him less than I do Juwan. I like both of them as people. And I like Juwan's professionalism and the way he goes about doing his job. But I like the way Steve Smith went about doing his job too. That doesn't mean Steve Smith should be starting at the 2 for us. Results have to count for something. You can go about your job the right way all day long, every day of the year, but if the results aren't there, you and I are on the street looking for another job, or at the very least we are demoted and someone else is given a shot, who may not even deserve it. But they are given a shot to see if they can increase production.

Have you forgotten that a basketball game has 4 quarters and a point for or against in the 1st quarter counts the same as a point for or against in the 4th quarter. Analyze the whole game, not just the last 8 minutes of the 4th. It all counts the same.

Durvusa already gave you the +/- of this last game. Stro-0, Juwan-(-1). There is no way that you can look at that game and justify Juwan playing 30 some odd minutes while Stro and Hayes are getting peanuts. And that was one of the easier matchups for Juwan.

If you really think Juwan is better defensively than Stro, well, I don't know what to say. Keep thinking that way I guess. If Juwan is better than Stro then Stro has to be the worst 4 defensively in the league, right down there with VladRad, if you call him a 4, about 10 notches below Zach Randolph and MoT.

Stro just gave us a solid defensive effort against Garnett, much better than Juwan. That's what makes me think he's better for us defensively. I'll take him over Juwan against Marion, Dirk, Duncan, and yes, Jermaine. I'd rather take my chances with Stro. I know what is gonna happen with Juwan. They will walk all over us on the perimeter and the interior. At least Stro will foul before his man breaks him down and gets Yao into foul trouble. Yeah, those guys torch everybody. Who would they torch more, Juwan or Stro? Juwan just got totally torched out of the arena by Marion....twice. That's what makes me think STRO COULDN'T POSSIBLY HAVE BEEN WORSE. It doesn't get any worse than that.

Watch the WHOLE game to get the WHOLE picture.

 

More emphasis on the 4th quarter, eh??

Yeah, tell that to JVG next time we play the SUNS. Sheesh!

 

I can agree with that. Stro is getting better.

I'm not saying Stro SHOULDN'T start. I'm saying there must be a reason why JVG choses to start JH. Simply inserting Stro into the starting lineup because he dunks well may not be the answer to all our ills (ills when we are playing >700 ball).

Leave the lineup like it is cause we are playing well. Depending on matchups that night and who is playing well will dictate who gets the most minutes.

Stro needs to earn his minutes. He doesn't just get to automatically start cause he dunks a lot.

 

The reason that Van Gundy starts Howard and gives him minutes is really simple:

He has an iron clad system and refuses to vary from it. He thinks every player has to "earn" their minutes by yucking it up in practice, diving on the floor, and learning where they are supposed to be and what they are supposed to do at all times when in the heat of battle.

Van Gundy has a problem with players growing on the game court when they haven't proven everything yet on the practice court. And he takes it to the extreme. Just witness Luther Head. All Van Gundy has said is that he was forced to play Luther because of injuries, that Luther really had not earned his minutes. As soon as he picks up another grizzled vet in Brunson Burner, now we see Brunson on the court and Luther riding the pine until 2/3 of the way through the 3rd quarter before he snapped to and realized he needed speed and quickness on the floor and brought in both Rafer and Head together.

It's really that simple. You can analyze numbers til the cows come home. But you can see it on the floor. It's the same reason he brings in Ryan Bowen to shag up a brick in a close Philly game when we need offense more than anything because AI is on a roll and CANNOT be stopped.

That inflexibility has cost this team several games this season. No, I'm not down on Van Gundy. He's a very good coach and I don't see anybody out there that would make us any better at this time. But he needs to improve his game just a little bit in these areas and put better combinations out there on the floor; and be a little flexible especially at this point in the season. We didn't trade Stro so we gotta put him in the best possible scenario to compete and help us. Same goes for Juwan. You can't just go by the "well, they haven't earned it" mantra at this late point of the season. You gotta go towards what seems to be working and away from what doesn't seem to be working.

Howard and Brunson are not quick enough to be playing major minutes in this league. He had them both on the floor at the same time last night. Wesley, if he is injured his jumper isn't working, is too short and too old to be playing a bunch of minutes when a young, fast, quick, healthy Luther is sitting on the bench. Bowen should not be on the floor if he can't shoot and we are in a shootout and cannot possibly stop a superstar on the other team.

Don't get me wrong. I like Howard. I love Wesley. I like Bowen. I'm even neutral on Brunson. But there is a time and place for everybody and there is the wrong time and place for everybody.

 

As my analysis points out, stats don't tell the whole story.

If Stro is being so productive in his current role, why do you advocate changing it?

We are playing almost .800 ball. How much is Juwan costing us, really?

Which #'s. The record seems to suggest otherwise. Isn't that the ONLY # that counts?

I already told you I would.

But I have to STRONGLY disagree with your assessment. How players keep composed in the 4th quarter is what defines them. Look at Horry. He doesn't do CRAP all game long (career average 8/5) but he is a freaking god. Why? Cause he produces in the 4th quarter.

The question comes down to what you prefer. Do you prefer a guy that is slow but steady. Or do you prefer a guy that CAN make spectacular plays but only does so sometimes. Other times, he COMPLETELY blows assignments and allows easy layups. Which is better? Some of you argue that Stro is better because he is a momentum changer. That is an interesting argument.

Certain matchups will always favor one over the other. Stro is OBVIOUSLY a better matchup for Garnett. But other than the freakishly athletic guy, Juwan can give you a solid performance.

Both Juwan and Stro have something to offer. Lets just see who is playing better on a given night rather than just handing it over to the mistake prone guy.

Marion torches everybody, dude. Quit using MVP caliber dudes to make your argument. Besides, the Suns play all their guys out of position to speed up play. Marion is really a SF...just like Amare is really a PF. So of course it is a bad matchup.

Great justification. Thanks for that analysis.

For the 100th time, I told you I will.

But I still contend that players that come through in the 4th are better than players that don't considering how many games come down to the last few possessions in NBA games.

 

Good post. Jopatmc that was one hell of block Stro had last night at a pivotal time in the game, the dood came out of nowhere. Is that what JVG calls an insperational play. It really ignited the team. Love the athletism Sto and Bogans bring to the table, they really cover up some of Yao's weaknesses.

 

"If Stro is being so productive in his current role, why do you advocate changing it?"

Because more of a good thing is a better thing. And less of a bad thing is better.


"We are playing almost .800 ball. How much is Juwan costing us, really?"

In the famous words of one of the greatest presidents to ever live: There you go again. I guess Juwan is largely responsible for us playing .800 ball the last 10 games. And he's not responsible for any of our below .500 record before that. That is what you call, "4th quarter thinking". LOL

"Which #'s. The record seems to suggest otherwise. Isn't that the ONLY # that counts?"

go to 82games.com and pull up player pairs. Look at Yao's +/- numbers with every player. Look at Juwan's +/- numbers by himself and look at them in combination with every player. Nuff said. Or just go to the charts that Durvusa put together in this thread and study them.

"Marion torches everybody, dude. Quit using MVP caliber dudes to make your argument. Besides, the Suns play all their guys out of position to speed up play. Marion is really a SF...just like Amare is really a PF. So of course it is a bad matchup."

I already said that. My point is he would torch Stro less. And I haven't used just MVP caliber dudes. Foster, Pollard, and Harrison are very pedestrian.

"How players keep composed in the 4th quarter is what defines them. Look at Horry. He doesn't do CRAP all game long (career average 8/5) but he is a freaking god. Why? Cause he produces in the 4th quarter."

LOL, you take Horry for the 4th and I'll take Shaq for the first 3 then. Shaq isn't effective in the 4th because he can't shoot FTs. It most definitely doesn't define him. And not to mention, do you really think that Juwan is so clutch in the 4th to use Horry in comparison for clutchness????? LOL

"Both Juwan and Stro have something to offer. Lets just see who is playing better on a given night rather than just handing it over to the mistake prone guy."

Both Juwan and Stro have something to offer. Lets just see who is playing better on a given night rather than just handing it over to the nonathletic, slow guy.

Touche

 

I wanted to chart Juwan and Swift's statistical production, per minute, each game. I'm using Hollinger's "game scores", prorated to 40 minutes. Not quite as sophisticated as PER, but it's a little quicker to calculate:

Game score = (Points x 1.0) + (FGM x 0.4) + (FGA x -0.7) + ((FTA-FTM) x -0.4) + (OREB x 0.7) + (DREB x 0.3) + (STL x 1.0) + (AST x 0.7) + (BLK x 0.7) + (PF x -0.4) + (TO x -1.0)

Anyways, I plotted their games, only considering games where they played at least 15 minutes. The main thing to notice is that Swift has more very good games (in terms of per minute stats) but he's also much more up and down. He can be great one night, and louzy the next. Basically this confirms what most of us already knew.

Juwan Howard



average = 9.0
median = 9.3
standard deviation = 5.9


Stromile Swift



average = 11.8
median = 13.3
standard deviation = 8.0


Note that Stro's average is higher. And his median is also higher, meaning he has more "good games" than Juwan. But Stro's standard deviation (or average variation in game score, game to game) is significantly higher.

 

I meant next season.

 

Krosfyah,

Did you track the numbers for our boys on this one?

How about you, Durvasa?

 

Yoohoo, paging Krosfyah.

 

One thing should be remembered that neither JH or SS are good enough to play Power Forward for the Rox. Neither plays defence , one plays as though stuck in cement and the other play like a wound up spring out of control with no idea of how to be part of the team game.