Stromile Swift - Juwon Howard Comparison Revisited

I think Juwan is a better post scorer and Swift is the better rebounder/defender - Swift just seems out of control when he posts and Juwan looks slow on defense. Both have a good jumpshot though.

I'd like to see Swift play more with Yao, because Yao is the only post threat needed when he's on the floor. Juwan could get more touches when Yao is resting and Deke or Swift and pick up his rebounding/defensive slack.

 

I used the +/- numbers at Popcornmachine.net to chart how Howard and Stromile have progressed in terms of how well the Rockets play relative to the opponent with them on the court. The data is up to the Minnesota game on 3/7.


It includes the games where they didn't play (Howard's missed two, and Swift has missed several at various times during the season). I just zeroed out the per-game values for those games. 5-game moving average looks at the last 5 game they played. The per-game +/- isn't adjust per 48 minutes; it says exactly how much Rockets outscored the opponent each game with that player on the court. The moving average is adjusted per 48 minutes, however.

Juwan Howard's plus/minus On Court


Howard's +/- was way down for most o the first half of the season, and though it continues to be mostly negative it's not quite as bad. This can probably be attributed to the fact that Tracy and Yao have played together in the starting lineup more often the past month or so. The only time Howard's presence resulted in positive team results for a good stretch was in early January.

Stromile Swift's plus/minus On Court


Swift's +/- appears to be up and down, but more recently it's been positive (when he's on the court, of course). He had a really terrible stretch in December, and maybe that's sticking in JVG's mind.

 

When MoT was here and starting, Juwan was coming off the bench. Juwan was absolutely and consistently useless as a bench player (much worse than now). When MoT proved to also be useless, Juwan got the start and immediately started producing.

Juwan is averaging 11/7.
Stro is averaging 9/5.

Together, that is 18/12. Not bad from the PF spot.

If we put Juwan on the bench, he'll avg probably 4/3.

So do we think Stro is gonna increase his productivity to make up that difference? There has been no evidence in his career that he is capable of averaging anything close to that.

So starting Stro hurts our overall productivity.

The problem with your logic is Stro is Yao's backup on most nights. If we start Stro, then it screws up our rotation cause both Yao and Stro would need a rest at about the same time. Deke is only a suitable backup on certain matchups. Most of the time, Stro is our backup center.

Okay fine. You got me. But last night was a top 5 performance. He needs to be more consistent.

Who backs up Yao at center against the likes of the Suns if we start Stro. Deke?

Look, let me break it down real simple like, ya hear:

1. Our rotation works just fine with Juwan starting because he is more productive starting.

2. Unlike Juwan, Stro is still capable of being productive off the bench. So let him.

3. Stro needs to come off the bench since he is normally subs for Yao at center against smaller, atheletic teams (which is most teams since nobody has true centers anymore).

 

This doesn't make sense to me. Howard will come in for Yao, just like Swift comes if for Yao now. And Swift will just move over to center while Howard is with him. When Swift goes out, Yao will come back and we'll have Yao and Howard together for a few minutes while Swift rests.

What's the problem?

 

"Swift's +/- appears to be up and down, but more recently it's been positive (when he's on the court, of course). He had a really terrible stretch in December, and maybe that's sticking in JVG's mind."




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Compared to what, Juwan's great December????? LOL

 

Playing center is more physically challenging esp for somebody who plays it out of position like Swift. You want Swift fresh when he comes in.

If you start Swift at PF and then move him over to center, then he has to switch positions after playing 8-12 minutes at PF. That is asking a lot of him.

Bottom line is this:
We can't lose more than 5-6 games the rest of the way. We've been playing outstanding with our current rotation. Why switch it up now? If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

Yeah, I know. Howard's +/- consistently sucked throughout December. Swift was going very well first half of December, but second half it went way, way down. -30 per 48min 5 game average is just atrocious.

 

Most games, even of late, we're getting outscored when Howard is on the court. Swift has been better in this regard.

As I've said earlier in this thread, I'm not squarely on one side of the Howard vs Swift debate. Both have big weaknesses, and it's hard to say that one is definitely more effective than the other.

I'd be quite happy with Chuck Hayes replacing either one, actually.

 

I have no problem with JVG starting Juwan over Stro, if 1) Juwan is more productive as a starter; 2) Stro is a potent offensive spark off the bench while he can also play solid defense; 3) both players are comfortable with their rotations.

In coaching his championship Bulls and Lakers teams, Phil Jackson used to have more experienced veterans to start the games and susbtitute them with younger and more athletic players minutes later -- often to the extend that the starters actually ended up with playing substantially less time than their replacements. No complaints were heard from those players involved. Of course, Phil Jackson is Phil Jackson.

 

How could that be if we have won 13 out of our last 17? Juwan averages 31 mpg while Stro avgs 20.

The end result is all that matters. We have been winning. Why do you want to completely shakeup the lineup if we have been winning with our current rotation?

 

LOL, you guys trying to find excuses for Howard. Howard's longest stretch of negativity is 7 games. Swift's longest stretch is 6 games.

Howard has been even more streaky than Swift on the downside. If by "consistent" you mean consistently outplayed, I'll take that.

Come on guys. You can analyze these numbers til the cows come home but you can't justify Howard's play as "good" or "better" than Stro's. Not using these numbers. But you can make a case that Stro deserves just as many minutes as Howard........using these numbers.

 

The reason is that when Howard has been on the bench, we've just been much better of late.

Keep in mind that Howard and Swift play several minutes together each game. Yao/Swift combination has been much more effective (as far as us outscoring the opponent) than Yao/Howard. At least, that's what the numbers show.

http://www.82games.com/0506/0506HOUP.HTM

Scroll to the very bottom.

Yao/Howard: -28 in 820 min (-1.64 per 48min)
Yao/Swift: +56 in 339 min (+7.93 per 48min)

 

I'm afraid I do it in a fairly dumb way. I copy the game logs from cbs sportsline into Excel, and than I just go to each game page in popcornmachine.net manually and enter in the +/-. Haven't yet looked into how to pull the data programmatically, but it would probably reduce chances of errors and also save me quite a bit of time!

 

So by your analysis if we play Yao/Swift together for 48 minutes then we will dominate? I havn't seen Swift playing better simply because he got more minutes.

Swift has yet to show me that he can consistently play. Often he just doesn't look like he is putting in the effort. He should be the 1st guy back on defense every time ...but more often than not, he's the last. Last night he finally brought some energy. I hope he continues that.

I WANT Swift to take the starting role. But I support JVG's decision to just not give it to him.

Regardless of your +/- stats, we are 13 for our last 17. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

No, but playing Yao/Swift together more and Yao/Howard together less will, most probably, improve our point differential -- and consequentially lead to more wins.

I agree. But sometimes a player who makes more mental mistakes, however annoying, is still more effective overall. JVG needs to allot minutes proportional to effectiveness to maximize our performance.

Wins/losses can be fools gold. Sometimes, you win inspite of things. In the long run, we'd probably be better off playing Howard less. But like I said, I don't know if Swift is definitely the answer. I've been supporting giving Chuck Hayes 20+ minutes a game for a while now.

 

i honestly believe that if JVG give STRO more time on the court he will develope into the great player, and be our twin towers along with YAO, he's still very young, the same age as yao i think, , he's not gonna learn anything by sitting on the beach, and i also think he can teach YAO that aggressive mindset, ya know DUNK the damn ball everytime he IN THE PAINT, not just one feet away, but when he in the paint area, he's gonna dunk it....

 

Pls stop using this rationalle folks...at the very least for the remainder of this season.

We don't have time to "develop" Stro. Either he can help us get to the playoffs or he can't. If he can't, then he belongs on the bench. Now isn't the time.

At least Dervasa is arguing that he can help us immediately. I hope so but I'm not convinced just yet. A few more games like yesterday may change my mind, however.

Nevertheless, there still is the problem of screwing up chemistry if you bench Juwan. Stro is happy coming off the bench and we are currently winning.

 

if stro doesnt start getting the nod over juwon then im going to really start wondering if jvg will have the courage to make changes. juwon really just isnt cutting it i think he needs to start playing agains non-starters maybe that would help.... SOMETHING needs to be done.