Stromile Swift - Juwon Howard Comparison Revisited

But if you look at Rafer....there for a while, I want to say starting with the Orlando game, he was doing stupid stuff. Dribbling the ball of his leg, making stupid passes, taking stupid shots, etc. JVG left him in. Just be consistant. If you yank one player for making bonehead plays then yank them all. I just think that given PT that Stro can be good with this team. He has all the ability in the world, but sometimes just doesnt show up. Keep him on the floor...lets see what he can do.....lets see if he can rebound from a few TOs....lets see what he can do offensively when given the ball.

IMO, I think Stro should get a few more touches then he gets. I like the play where he sets a pick on the strong side wing....then the backside wing sets a pick for him as he cuts through the lane, and he posts up. I like his one-on-one game and think that could be a huge lift to this team. If he posts up and goes one-on-one, then Yaos man will have to help, which leaves Yao open for an easy 2. If Yaos man doesnt help, then Stro has a lay-up/dunk opportunity.

 

You can't compare mistakes by a franchise player to mistakes by a role player. Apples and oranges for various reasons.

Stro OBVIOUSLY is never going to be a franchise player. Don't waste your time developing him. Stro just needs to fit in. If he can't fit in with this squad then he needs to go. I wouldn't support anything that takes touches away from Yao and TMac.

Juwan fits in fine. The only shots Juwan takes are in the flow of the offense. Stro however usually creates his own shots which is great if it goes in but he hasn't learned how to play much team bball yet.

 

Or you end up stopping the player's development as he cannot learn from his mistakes in the flow of the game. analysis paralysis. Come sit next to me so I can rant at you one more time about one mistake.

The only thing that gives a player a chance to really develop a better game is playing time - learning to play with his teammates and against the opposition.

 

I don't have a problem with Swift not getting minutes if he is "off". But if you are gonna be fair...........then when Juwan is "off" and that jumper is clanging instead of draining, he shouldn't be getting minutes.

Sure Stro makes more mistakes. But along with more mistakes, you get the higher upside and the possibility of more great plays made than with Juwan. Stro is just a more volatile player on the upside and the downside.

Juwan may do everything right and play cerebrally but the bottom line is he is overmatched 90% of the time against some athletic 6'8" to 7' power forward that consistently outscores, outrebounds, and outdefends him.

Once again, I really like Juwan, I like his temperment, I like his effort........I just don't like the results. And the reason is basic, he is out athleticized. He needs to be coming off the bench for us giving us offensive punch. He is not a defender and will not give us great defense. He's just another body out there defensively. He may know where to go at all times, but the batteries are run down and he can't get there fast enough.

If we're gonna win enough games to get to the playoffs, Stro has to be a major factor for us. If he doesn't come through, and if JVG sits him in favor of giving Juwan 30+ every night, I don't think we are gonna make the playoffs, healthy McGrady or not.

 

richirich and jopatmc,

I am not a JVG fan and I'm not defending his rotation decisions. And I am as intrigued by these analyses as anyone here. What I am saying is, comparing numbers like these between a bench player and a starter is not totally accurate. If the coach left Swift on the floor even when he's sleepwalking, then his numbers might (I know it's hypothetical) be much worse than Howard's.

 

Excellent, Tango. I don't pretend to be any good at data analysis, and would prefer to let a pro do it. I only thought of looking into the Juwan/Stro comparison because no one else seemed to be interested in it.

 

I do think you've got it. Your theory would explain the following oddities.

I've been exploring the 82games.com site mentioned by Tango and others. From the <a href="http://www.82games.com/0506/0506HOU2.HTM">table of 5-man units</a>:

<table>
<tr><td><center>Unit</center><td>eFG<td>eFGA<td>FTA<td>Close<td>dClose<td>Reb<td>T/O</tr><tr><td>Head-Wesley-McGrady-Howard-Ming<td>.500<td>.394<td>-6<td>35%<td>32%<td>94%<td>-8%</tr><tr><td>Head-Wesley-McGrady-Swift-Ming<td>.565<td>.316<td>-10<td>26%<td>14%<td>80%<td>+2%</tr></table>
eFG = the effective shooting percentage, adjusted for the value of 3-point shots.
eFGA = the effective shooting percentage allowed to opponents.

The opponent shooting percentage with Stro is 0.316 and with Juwan is 0.394. The gap is surprisingly huge.

Another surprise is that our <i>offence</i> is also vastly better with Stro (0.565) than with Juwan (0.500).

Easy's theory, that Stro gets the hook as soon as he starts sucking, whereas we tend to stick with Juwan no matter what, would explain the above numbers.

 

But that wouldn't affect their individual "win-loss" record. And Howard's is much worse than Stro's. Rockets have outscored opponents with Stromile on the court a greater percentage of games than they have with Howard. Other factors come in play -- like Swift probably doesn't play as much against opposing starters and he missed several games in January when Yao and McGrady were out.

Stro gets more touches on offense when he's on the floor (usage rate is third on the team behind McGrady and Yao), and as a result he compiles more numbers at an increased rate. Overall, the stats aren't very conclusive on who's more effective between the two.

Hayes is another story.

 

By the same token, most of Juwan's minutes come with Yao and Mcgrady on the floor and most of Swift's minutes comes with at least one of our top two on the bench. Coach does leave Howard on the floor too long when he isn't hitting that jumper. The only thing Howard is good for is that 17 footer. When he ain't hitting it, he oughta sit for awhile and give Swift and Hayes some minutes.

 

Seems to be Juwan's problem tonight against the TWolves.

 

Juwon's the better player.

His real flaw right now, besides his obvious physical limitations, is that he still feels compelled to "get his." You can tell when he tries to take a player who's athletically far superior than him earlier in the shot clock. He'll do this when he feels ignored.

Regardless, Howard has a nice jumper and occasionally rebounds the ball. His D isn't good - but he seldom makes huge mistakes.

Swift is a walking disaster. He's enormously physically talented - but I've seen very few players do less with more. He doesn't even seem to work hard. Add to that a complete lack of a jump shot, no rebounding ability, very little shotblocking ability, and the propensity to look stupid on D - and what precisely is he supposed to add to the team other than a ferocious dunk once a game or so?

 

By the same token, you may say that most of Swift minutes are against weaker opponents. Anyway, I think you still have not answered the bench player vs. starter discrepancy.

BTW, Swift's jump shot eFG% is a whopping .287. That's not gonna help spreading the floor offensively when playing along with Yao.

 

Got to give it UP for Swift today, guy was hustling all over the floor..he may not have a great jumpshot % but I thought we wanted the Otis Thorpe Prototype who can hustle, rebound, and play D and that's what Swift did tonight..

 

We need more games like this from Stro.

 

Look, the floor spreaders are supposed to be the SF, SG, and PG. Ideally, the PF is by the basket helping out the big man underneath, setting screens, rebounding, and cutting to the rim for layups, alleyopps, etc. Swift has way more ability to do this than Howard does.

I'll take dunks over 17 footers any day, everyday. There is no way a PF can get any offensive rebounds when he is shooting 17 footers. It's just not efficient, high percentage basketball.

Weaker opponents???

Who gives us a better chance of success guarding Garnett, Swift or Howard???

Now, take it the other way. Who would make Garnett work harder defensively, Howard or Swift???

Come on man. It's as plain as the nose on your face. Swift is a knucklehead, no doubt. So what. He gives us a chance to compete at the position. Howard is a great guy, a consumate professional. So what. He loses his matchup 28 out of 30 games.

 

Our opponents want Juwan to shoot the ball. If Yao gets doubled, Juwan doesn't cut, and if he did, he wouldn't be able to finish. He just stands there, waiting for the ball, and throws up his ugly shot. Every shot he takes is wide open and his FG% still sucks.

I could overlook this if he contributed ANYTHING else. But he doesn't. He's a below average rebounder, and a terrible defender who often exposes Yao to fouls, instead of watching Yao's back. I'd rather have Mark Blount playing the 4 for us than Juwan. He does the same things as far as shooting from the outside (even has more range), but is taller and stronger and probably not any slower.

 

Amen.

 

I know a PF who shoot 3 pointers and rebounds like a madman. Ever hear of Shawn Marion? KG rebounds and shoots 17 footers. They aren't mutually exclusive at all. In today's NBA, an ideal PF can shoot and hit a midrange jumper, especially when you have a dominant low post scorer like Yao taking up room close to the basket. Want more? Chris Bosh, Jermaine O'Neal, Pau Gasol, Al Harrington, Antawn Jamison, Troy Murphy, Jirk. Even Zach Randolph can hit the jumper. PFs need to have good rebounding instincts also. Anybody can dunk. JH gives us a sweet spot in the offense when he hits the jumper. Too bad he's been sour most of the time lately. Stro, on the other hand, needs to dedicate himself to his craft (for a change) and work on developing some skills. If he did this and brought a good effort every game, he could be a starting caliber player. But veteran dogs rarely learn new tricks.

 

I honestly don't think Stro is a bonehead. I just don't think JVG has a very solid plan for how or what our PF should be doing. yea you say grab rebounds and protect yao, but his body build isn't built for that and everyone knew that bringing him in. Juwan doesn't do those two things very well either.

If JVG designed plays to match Stro's strength, i'm sure he wouldn't look so boneheaded. I just think sometimes Stro tries to be the Stro JVG wants him to be (which atm isn't very good stro) and every once in a while, he wants to flash some of his brilliant natural talent but **** just goes wrong. Then he ends up looking like a bonehead.

Yao said it himself, Stro is a hard working dedicated guy. I like him, everytime i watch him play i see him trying his ass off. When he talks, he doesn't sound r****ded or unintelligent. I just think JVG doesn't do a real good job at designing the roles of a PF like Stro.

Look at Juwan, he's supposed to grab boards and protect Yao, he doesn't do that very well either. Given PT, Stro will learn what works with Yao on the floor and what will not. Then he will make the right moves at the right time.

 

And I guess Hubie Brown didn't either?