Very good work. Thanks for taking the time to bring this to the forum. If Swift earns enough playing time to average 15/9, I will be very happy. This means he isn't committing silly fouls on defense or disrupting the flow of our offense. JH has good chemistry with other players in our 1/2 court offense and this is where I think Swift could have a big challenge as a Rocket. One clear advantage he has over JH is offensive putbacks (if he plays aggressive). On defense, he needs to avoid silly fouls, stay within the scheme and crash the boards. If Swift has problems, JVG will not hesitate to pull him out because it's all about wins. I won't judge Swift too hard if he starts the season slow because it may take time for him and the team to adjust. Maybe not. 15/9 plus the expected block shots, etc is clearly acheivable. But Swift must display a different mentality this coming season than before. I have reservations, but I'm hopeful.
I think Swift's impact will be more on the court than on the paper. Even if you take a look of Howard's stat sheet, you would be quite impressed, but we know Howard+Yao don't quite cut it. It is about the combination of the roster, not individual stats. I will be happy with Swift getting 10-6-2 a night if that helps Yao to get his 22-10-3.
I dont know if this has been posted elsewhere but I think its soo good that the rockets have a consistent guy like Juwan Howard playing behind Swift. I think Swift (by these numbers) has the ability to be amazing. His quickness will help him offensively as well for i see T mac and him running the pick and roll a lot. He'll be a different sort of offensive presence then Howard was. But as we've seen Swift is not yet consistent, so if the guy has a bad game we can always plug Howard in to save the day. Just my thought about it all.
These stat's could be a little misleading in that Swift got to start only in the periods when he actually performed well. So looking at only these games overestimates his general performance. With that said, I sure hope he will play to his full potential with the Rockets.
It seems that most of us assume Swift starts ahead of Howard. But, I am not so sure how JVG will bring Swift in the team. If my memory serves me good, JVG started MoT instead of Howard at the begininning of last season. It wouldn't surprise me if they split the PF minutes (20+) initially, given that Howard clears out of his heart problem. KH
My thoughts exactly. I just didn't feel like getting flamed for taking the stats further and saying that Stromile, if improved by playing alongside T-Mac and Yao, could put up some scary, scary numbers for us. Offensively, I'm not looking for anything more from Swift than finishing off the break, hitting the mid-range jumper, and getting offensive putbacks (and with 2.3 offensive rebounds as a 28 mpg starter in Memphis, I really would like to see what he's going to do if given 35 mpg alongside Yao and Mac). Defensively, he appears to be able to translate his athleticism into an impressive amount of steals and blocks per minute, which I really like. He certainly has the physical tools to be a top defender, and you know JVG is either going to turn this kid into a stopper, or break him trying. Our interior D should be nasty next year. No, not quite. I did do an honors econ program at NYU, though, in which my thesis involved a lot of data analysis in excel. I guess because of that I don't mind occasionally playing around with stats in excel. Definitely agree that stats don't tell the whole story, and that it's how the pieces fit that's most important, however, I feel that Swift makes a much better fit than Juwon, and don't anticipate Stro having the same problems that Juwon had with the team last year. Juwon made his career (and contracts) almost entirely on his offensive low-post skills, and on the Rockets, he was given almost no time to operate within the one-dimension that made him an above average player (17.2 ppg scorer for his career). As a defender, he's never been a factor (.3 bpg career - yikes) and as a rebounder, he's nothing to write home about either (7.3 in 36 mpg career). Stromile, however, isn't renowned for his low-post moves, and has rather found more success with put-backs, mid-range jumpers, and finishes off the break - all of which we not only wish for him to make his niche with this team, but which we feel he'll be better able to do given the attention T-Mac and Yao demand. Of course only the season will tell how it all plays out, but on paper, this looks and feels really good.
Not sure if anyone's mentioned this, but let's not forget the things he'll do for this team that aren't on paper. For example, momentum changes. The swat in the lane that leads into the fastbreak that puts us up by 6 with 1:28 left to go, the tomahawk dunk over the opposing team's center that lifts us out of our traditional 1st quarter funk, altering tons of shots in the lane ala Yao, upgrading weakside help, etc. And of course, Swift allows an aging (but still starter-quality) Juwan Howard to come off the bench against the opposing team's 2nd stringers... Swift's intangibles are what has really got me excited beyond simply predicting his numbers... He might have many LOUD 10/5 games folks...
Nice post,excellent work. The knock on SS is his heart, having a cream puff playing along side Yao is not what we need. When talking about complementing Yao we need not only the great athlete and shot blocker/rebounder but an enforcer mentality to complement Yao's good nature. I hope SS can bring that fire.
Other things to factor in that are not there but will be important to watch are FG%, PPS and jumper%. His FG% has been fairly consistent and positive, as high as 48%, and as low as 45%. His PPS has been as well, ranging from 1.24 to 1.32. More variable is his jumper %, which has gone varied from 28% (04-05), 39% (03-04), and 32% (02-03) the last two years. I think 14 points is probably an upper bound of expectations, as Tmac and Yao will be a lot more of the offensive focus that anything Swift had in the Memphis. I like his chances at 7+ rebounds and 1.8+ blocks more, because these are things he can do off the ball and benefit from being more of an afterthought to Yao and Tmac. His e-jumper is really going to be important to watch. If it is close to 40% like Howard routinely hits he will be close to equal or superior to Howard in every way. But if that jumper is shaky it will be more of a split role thing as in some respects our offense will be better with JH. Swift will get more overall minutes and still start, but JH will play a lot and in some key situations could be our PF on the floor. Personally I say 27-29 MPG, 13-14PPG, 7-8RPG, 1.7-2.0BPG is a solid projection. If he can get his FG% to 47% and PPS in the 130s and jumper % above 35% along with that he will be a tremendous contributer. Anything more is gravy.
Hmm.. I put my money on player's 'intangables' as well as their stats. I feel that 'Stro will come out with 'something to prove' and have a monster season. We also obviously have a very positive atmosphere and that tends to bring the best out in players. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping that he concentrates on defense, rebounds, and garbage points, ala Dennis Rodman or Chuck Barkley in '97 (his highest rebounding average of his career). His scoring might dip, but so what? Look at Ben Wallace. I'm not saying that 'Stro will be that good, but it's what we need him for. J
Well, the best predictor of future performance is past performance. Swift actually has been fairly consistent for like 4 years. It is more a case of what you see is what you get--some good qualities and some modest qualities, than the upside of a star player, IMO. If he ups his defense and rebouding a little, while maintaining offensive production in the upper range of his efficiency, that is enough for me. It does not revolutionize the Rockets the way Tmac or Yao can, but really helps us. Expecting Swift to revolutionize the Rockets and put up 17 & 9 & 3 OR be a Ben Wallace type factor defensively I think is setting yourself up to get dissappointed.
I think Swift will be a great asset because of what the ROCKETS need him to do. His Strengths: Athleticism on the Defensive end Offensive rebounds in traffic Weak-side shotblocking Mid-range jumper Ability to catch and finish in traffic Those are the factors of what exactly we need with the rockets. Memphis saw the four spot as a creation of shot area w/ Gasol, which Stro just isn't. He has a lackluster back to the basket game, cannot dribble-penetrate and really just can't create his own shot. With JWill/Battier/Posey etc, I don't think there were true creators (Esp when Hubie shackled Jwill's game) so Stro would go out there almost expecting to be a focal point of the offense which he simply can't. He was also expected to play center and guard centers while playing at 6'9 with a slight frame. Memphis was also riddled with those athletic swingmen that can get rebounds like Bonzi/Posey/Battier, whereas those will be his in Houston. In Houston he just needs to bring it every night and do what he does best. He doesn't need to have a great turnaround jumper or drop step. Just hit the open jumper, and cut to the hoop for a monster jame when teams can't deal with Ming or McGrady or both at the same time! Imagine McGrady bringing the ball down.....uses Yao as a screen and as Yao rolls to the basket (which is almost unstoppable) he then also has a cutting stromile to slam it down if the four comes to help out on Yao. That with a guy like Barry/Wesley on the wings to spread the floor??? We'll be unstoppable.
Well, I dug up an old Rockets game on tape...the first game against Memphis way back in Nov. 04, just to check out on Swift. I was very impress...this kid hussles and plays hard, always goin for a steal and loose ball. He's quick to get back on defense and he almost got a steal on Lue where the ball bounce out of bounds. He actually has a nice shooting range from 10-15 ft. I really can't see how he would fit the label as being lazy, and not working hard. From what I see from the video, he's the opposite of that.
