Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

If you rearrange the letters in the title of this thread, they spell

"Mamba Swap Omit"

Coincidence?

I think not.

 

Another phrase formed from the first letter of each word in the title:

"Mamba Womb Pat"

I feel like I'm onto something here.

 

I'm not sure I agree with your list relative to the term "star" but not sure it matters. Conversely, one could consider Josh Smith a star cause he can create his own shot, but he clearly isn't a star, or even a player I care to have or not have on my team.

Carl, I'm not sure if I can stand a repeat of the Dwight threads, only with Lebron... even though I'm sure it is a strategy DM is considering.

Honestly, though, unless somebody (Lebron or his people) has said something behind closed doors about him considering a change of scenery, which I seriously doubt, the odds of it happening are so so slim. Considerably smaller then the odds of us acquiring Harden were, which were themselves ridiculously small odds.

 

Those of course aren't superstars. But stars good enough to be the best player on playoff teams? Many of those already are. And to be the second best player on contending teams? Well that's the question. It largely depends on how good your best player is, and the rest of the supporting cast, hence my comments on Harden and Lin.

Josh Smith is underrated here because for all his shot creation, he is merely average on offense. He is a Rudy Gay on offense. So if shot creation was his only value then I would agree with you. The reason why he is underrated is because his true value lies in his gamechanging impact on the defensive end. He is elite, and up there with Duncan, Marc Gasol, KG, Noah, and of course, Asik as far as defense goes.

 

Any good role player contributes meaningfully to winning. Millsap is a good role player, sure. Is he top 20? Definitely not.

Is Millsap an upgrade from Patterson and Morris? Of course. Can he push us over the hump and make us a contender. I don't think so, not unless Asik becomes a true star who can be a force on both ends. But if that happens, any one of our current PFs may be good enough already.

Bottom line, Millsap is not a difference maker in terms of pushing us into contender status. I agree with leebigez. Unless we are getting a real star, I'd rather stay put and see if any of the young guys we have can develop into stardom.

 

Statistics are a great tool. But we also have to augment our statistical comparisons with what we see on the court and with an intelligent appraisal of what players are really capable of.

For instance, LaMarcus Aldridge has been banged up this season, and is obviously capable of putting up better shooting numbers than he has in one half of one season. So we have to factor in his capability of putting up all-star numbers on great shooting seasons when assessing his value as a trade target. Otherwise we're making claims no more reasonable than "Dirk Nowitzki has a PER of 15.18 this season, and Amir Johnson has a PER of 17.65 this season. Amir Johnson is a better player than Dirk Nowitzki." I cited to an advanced metric. It's true, Dirk's PER is lower. But it's led me to a ridiculous conclusion.

 

I'm pretty sure the Rockets will trade for Millsap so then we will see who's right and who's wrong. I am guessing that Morey relies more heavily on advanced metrics than the "eyeball test" that posters are recommending. The Rockets are based on efficient players with unreached potential who come at good value, and that is Millsap in a nutshell. He happens to be the only guy that is possibly attainable among all of those players that are constantly thrown around on this board. I think this is a no brainer- the biggest question is who the Rockets give up? I hope they find a way to deal Morris and Patterson and hang onto Douglass. Probably would need a third team to make this work somehow.

 

I've heard Utah may want to keep Milsap and let Jefferson go...

But is he worth a max contract...???

That dude is short...

 

Milsap is averaging 14 points and 7 rebounds. That's not much of an upgrade over Patterson.

 

That is fine. I'm down with that.

That wasn't the topic though.

 

If you've watched any of our games during our big streak the past month or so, I can't see how you can say we're not more affective with small ball. It's so evident.

 

Millsap would see less usage on our roster, not more....

 

Zbo on trade block!

 

This is the type of player we need to go deep in the playoffs. We don't need an above average offensive PF. We need a defensive stud who can guard the paint.

 

True. As it is, Morris/Pat mostly sit in the corner waiting to shoot and we have the top offense in the league. Smith seems like a really good fit if an elite player isn't available.

 

If said stud can't shoot from the outside though, our top-10 offense will drop significantly. The Rockets for this entire season have alsmost never featured a lineup with more than one non-shooter. They only did it in short spurts with Asik and Smith. Otherwise, it's Harden, Lin, and shooters galore.

Josh Smith has always been a horrendous outside shooter. But he seems to be hitting the 3s this year. If he can simply make that corner 3 at ~35% clip, he'd be the 2nd star to push the Rockets into contention. But that's a huge IF.

 

Morris, PPat, Parson, and Lin are all inconsistent at 3 this year. Josh is shooting at .356 at 2 3PA/36. I don't see how it can be detrimental to the offense.

I actually think our offense will be better with Harden/Lin PnR lobs to someone who can play above the rim. Our offense will be more leathal with Josh as the roll man instead of Asik.