Here are the computer models...It's way too early to tell, but it looks like a possible South Texas/North Mexico landfall. Falcon's Talon better gas up that new Mustang.
Chris is really struggling right now. The upper level low to it west and dry air all around it is really doing a number on it. It may not make it the Gulf of Mexico even if it continues heading in that direction. This has been a strange year theres plenty of heat content out there in the Gulf but nothing is getting there because all of these upper level lows just shearing apart everything.
What do you think I do, laugh after other people's misfortunes. Truthfully, it pisses me off to take several storms, rebuild and move on with our lives to the best we could, and at the same time you(U.S.) take one and rollover like a b!tch. But at the same time I can't imagine the pain they're suffering and neither can you unless you're a victim. People gonna lose their homes everywhere a hurricane strikes, PRAY AND PREPARE!! Lazybum, there ain't no spectacular survival stories here, the only fatalities are those who for some reason decide to stay on their boat. Just basic fundamental preparations we do. Joe Joe, storm surges and flood damage devastate them because of poor drainage. In NO's case, it wasn't helping them do be below sea level. Apathy!!?? At times I do consider reaching that point, but I'm too nice. Read Psalm 91 and you'll be just fine.
It has been really a "normal" year compared to the last 10 years of increased activity. The combination of a southerly jet stream (a primary reason in the record highs in both the northeast and southwest), high wind shear throughout the Atlantic, African dust blowing into the Atlantic basin and cooler water temps than last year (not by a LOT, but a couple degrees can make a big difference) has really squelched hurricane activity thus far. But, we are now into the busiest part of the season, so... Chris is also a very small storm and effected to a much greater degree by dry air than bigger storms.
looks like theres only a small chance that it will hit us, but i'll wait a few weeks before I either get really intrested or not at all.
It seems to be heading to below average. I don't have time to look up how many is an average amount of tropical cyclones by Aug 2nd, but 3 weak ones seems below average. The Saharan Air Layer was there last year and the difference in water temperature is minimal. Its the shear that is running rampant this season that is the real cause of this "down" season. Just look at the ULL to the wnw of Chris. How can anything survive with that thing out there.
Yeah, you are correct. Here's the latest from the NHCC... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CHRIS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 55 KT AND A DROPSONDE SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF 55 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THE VERY SMALL INNER CORE...I.E. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ORDER 10 N MI...THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS DISAPPEARED. FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA NOW SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 N MI FROM THE CENTER. ALSO THE PRESENTATION FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER SUGGESTS A LESS-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ARC CLOUDS EMANATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STORM. ALL OF THE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT LITTLE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE WIND MAXIMUM COULD CONTRACT AND INTENSIFICATION RESUME. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE STORM AND...BASED ON THE RECON FIX...WHICH IS NEAR THE 5000 FT LEVEL...AND THE RADAR FIXES...WHICH ARE NEAR THE 25000 FT LEVEL...THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF CHRIS...WITH THE STORM LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER OTHER GLOBAL MODELS....SUCH AS THE U.K. MET... SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER WINDS MAY NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE. THE LATTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CHRIS COULD ENCOUNTER A SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AND IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PREDICTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...AND THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE U.K. MET. IS THE NORTHERNMOST...HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL LOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAYS 4-5. Track has shifted more to the south and the intensity forecast is down a bit.
What this thread needs are pictures from the ISS of the strongest Hurricane ever recorded... Yes, I do love those pictures.
Chris has been utterly beaten down by shear the last 24 hours. I'm surprised they're still calling this thing a tropical storm. There isn't any convection near the center at all and with all the shear there probably won't be. Check out the visible loop here and you can see the all the convection just fly off to the south as the low continues moving west. Pretty remarkable. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Don't give up on it yet, you guys remember how quickly they can strengthen given the right conditions. Right now it is getting battered by winds to the North of it, but as it passes and makes it's way into the Gulf, anything can happen. I hope it drags its merry butt over Cuba....and then into Southern Texas as a small TS......we need the rain in Austin. DD
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=442&tstamp=200608 Chris continues to become better organized, and may become a hurricane later today. The latest hurricane hunter eye report at 7:09am EDT found flight level winds of 67 knots, which translates to about 60-65 mph at the surface. There are upper level lows to Chris' east and west, and Chris is embedded in a low shear zone of 10-15 knots between these two lows. The lows are helping enhance the upper-level outflow from the storm. The satellite presentation of Chris has improved substantially, and we now see a more symmetrical storm that is not sucking in so much of the dry air surrounding it. Radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico, shows an eye-like feature developing (Figure 1). Chris is over warm 29-30 C water that is favorable for intensification. The key question, as always, is wind shear. Chris is a small storm that is very vulnerable to wind shear. Any movement of Chris towards either of the upper level lows surrounding it will bring hostile wind shear that will weaken the storm. However, the current model forecasts call for Chris to maintain its position exactly between these lows, and for the shear to drop to 5-10 knots. The most likely ranges for Chris' intensity on Sunday when it is expected to be near Florida range from weak tropical storm (45 mph) to strong Category 2 hurricane (110 mph). It now appears likely that Chris will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and be a threat to the Gulf Coast. There is a trough of low pressure that will be moving across the Eastern U.S. on Monday that may turn Chris more to the north; high pressure is then forecast to build in on Tuesday and force Chris back to the west-northwest. Given this forecast, there is no region of the Gulf Coast that can assume Chris will miss them.
Max, that blog entry is from 8:18 am YESTERDAY. If this were the 1995 playoffs, Tropical Storm Chris would be David Robinson and the wind shears would be Hakeem Olajuwon...
Max: Note that Jeff Masters hasn't made a post since yesterday morning. In his previous blog, he noted that he was going to be off until Saturday with a promised committment to his family. This storm is getting shredded by wind shear and if it interacts with any land mass (Cuba, Dominican Republic), it is toast. At this point, only 2 of the primary models is forecasting it will survive and one model has it hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. The other reliable model hasn't run since 8pm last night. Da is right in that storms can re-form, particularly in the warm waters of the Gulf. But, even the NHCC believes Chris has only about a 5-10 percent chance of survival at this point. If it stays to the south in the Gulf, conditions are not as favorable there as along the northern Gulf coast. I'd be surprised if the storm survives the next 72 hours at this point.
