They never saw the max strength. 175mph winds over the water doesn't mean it hits land. Miami is still standing. Charley and Bonnie in 04 dissintegrated within a few measly hours. They are measured by the eye, when the eye approaches land, the warm waters are gone, and the storm gets weaker. IT WILL NOT SUSTAIN OR GAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER LAND. Any portion that hits land is the most you'll get. 125mph winds is cat3, which I said earlier are the most you'll get. I thank you for helping my case. Cat5 winds, I don't think so. My prediction for Chris is that it will go NW and might hit the Carolinas like Fran did. Hurricanes and storms that pass north of us usually go off in that directions and miss the states entirely.
There was A GUST OF 160MPH. WOW 205mph was IN THE GULF. 190mph NEVER SAW LAND. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille
it says there was a lack of wind reports near the center...picayune, ms was not where the storm made direct landfall....that's where the gust was recorded. meterologist estimate that cat 5 winds were present at landfall. even if you're right, though, do you realize how ridiculous everything you're saying appears when you consider the devastation that storm brought??? this was a major life-changing affair for lots of people.
To me, this storm seems far too far away yet for us to even begin to concern ourselves. I'll start paying attention in a week.
anyways...correct me if I'm wrong, but no hurricane that has formed in the Atlantic has hit Texas, right? Conditions would have to be perfect for a long time for a hurricane to travel that far and hit Texas dead on...
where did rita form? katrina formed in the atlantic...it could just as easily have made it to texas as to louisiana. gilbert formed way out in the atlantic and ultimately hit northern mexico.
Rita formed north of Haiti and Katrina formed north of Cuba. I think that technically counts as the Atlantic, though I still think of it as the Carribbean. Perhaps I should have said the far Atlantic...
Techically, there have been hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic and made it to the Texas coast, but only a couple. It's rare. Also, "Atlantic" is a relative term. The Atlantic stretches to east and south of Florida so a hurricane that forms there is more likely to reach the Texas coast than one that forms in the Atlantic Basin far to the south and east. As for Sextuple, I am the first one to tell everyone that there is nothing worse in a hurricane than overexaggeration unless it is apathy. A strong category 4 Katrina levelled Bilouxi. Camille caused devastation hardly imaginable. It is RARE for a category 5 or even a category 4 storm to make landfall. It just doesn't happen that often outside of last year, which was, by all accounts, an anomoly. To underestimate the devastation of a storm is simply foolish. Even a tropical storm can bring tremendous destruction - see: Allison. By the way, I never said a storm doesn't weaken over land. When the eye makes landfall, it does begin to weaken and that de-intensification continues appreciably over the next 12-24 hours. Within 18 hours, most storms are at tropical storm or even depression strength. HOWEVER, to say that all storms weaken before making landfall is just plain WRONG. Land interacting with the EYEWALL leads directly to weakening, but not with the outer rain bands.
Oh, and Fatty Fat is correct. This storm is WAYYYY out there and its forecast track and intensity forecast (particulary the latter) are HIGHLY subjective to change at this point. Three day forecasts tend to be fairly accurate and the current three days out shows it moving northwest to slightly west of northwest. It should be noted that the the NOGAPS and GFDL, two of the more trusted models, have not run since 8pm and 2am respectively. When those run again this afternoon, we'll get, I think, a somewhat clearer picture of how they are interpreting the changes in the upper atmosphere north of this storm.
Does dropping a category matter that much for Texas? I would assume it would help a little, but does the storm surge created by the Cat 5 winds in open waters have time to dissipate before landfall even if it hits as a Cat 3? On a side note, I believe the shallow waters in the gulf will cause significantly higher storm surges in Texas versus the same strength storm in the Caribean.
Great thread to read guys! Thanks! Hmm...wonder if we can somehow relate Tim Duncan's skills to some super hurricane survival stories in the Virgin Islands?
It matters for some things and not so much for others. Katrina was a category 4 hurricane in terms of pressure and wind speed, but she had a storm surge equivalent to a category 5 storm because of the size of the hurricane. I'm not sure the Bay or the coastline along the Texas coast is any more conducive to storm surge than anywhere else along the Gulf Coast or even in the Caribbean. We have unique issues in Houston because of the ship channel just as NO had unique issues because of the levees. The good news for us is that, while a direct hit (a storm coming up Galveston Bay from southwest to northeast) from a big storm would be a disaster for the Houston area, flooding would subside rather quickly as water would flow back into the bay rapidly. There is a real scenario that the Chron laid out a couple years ago where a cat 4 or 5 storm came through Galveston Bay on that trajectory and essentially put most of the east and southeast side of Houston under water while sending flood waters from bayous into many of the areas impacted by Allison. In order for that to happen, a LOT of things would have to go wrong and those odds are still pretty long. Even with NO, it did not sustain a direct hit that they feared. The problem for them was the storm surge combined with the rainfall that knocked down severely weakened levees. In reality, their doomsday wasn't really even the worst they could have sustained. My point is that it doesn't require a perfect scenario to create some serious disaster conditions, BUT the odds of even being close to the perfect storm are still pretty long.
Just a quick update. The latest hurricane hunter aircraft found no increase in strength for Chris during the heat of the day. It's pressure has dropped to 1007mb from 1001mb this morning. That isn't significant at this point as it is probably going to go through a lot of fluctuations over the next day or two. The model runs have started to shift more to the south. I would not be surprised to see a revision south in the forecast track at 4pm by the NHCC. The midpoint of the current models would actually take the storm VERY close to if not over Cuba. If the tracks continue to converge tonight and into tomorrow, it would not be at all incomprehensible that we could see the storm run across the length of Cuba and dissipate over its mountainous regions. Obviously, that would be bad for Cuba, but better they sustain a large TS or moderate category 1 than the Gulf Coast gets hit with a major hurricane. The model runs tonight should be really interesting.
