I'm not comparing the two events directly, I'm comparing the choices that the Fed has. You either tackle inflation or you focus on maintaining employment. The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain low inflation and high employment but when inflation is hot AND there are risks to employment (which a war in Ukraine could do), then you have to make a choice. You either tackle inflation (raise rates) or you focus on maximizing employment (keep things as is). But you can't do both in this environment. Today we have rising oil prices, potential war and global supply disruptions. Those are triggers for things like stagflation like effects since they both increase prices (inflation) while inhibiting/impacting businesses (lower growth/employment risk). We're not in a 1970s/early 80s environment yet because GDP growth and employment numbers are still quite good but the point is that the Fed has also learned from the 1970s and can't be reactionary. So given the current situation, I'd bet on the Fed takes a cue from the 70s and early 80s and raises rates regardless of geopolitics.
the ukraine issue is a political one, i see little, if any, impact on employment. pls educuate me as to how it will impact employment.
Sigh, was hoping the Ukraine situ would be just "officializing" the defection of the cities already controlled by the separatist pro-russian forces for years. Looks like it's a full scale invasion?
Depends on how you believe the wording and actions. Smh. The market is taking a beating early. I'm actually down on my NVDA shares I bought a week or two ago now and breaking even or so on my AMD that I added around then. Gonna add to the NVDA shares if it dips harder. I really didn't think I'd have to worry about either, but oh well. Still sticking with buying on this dip and hopefully for the people of Ukraine, there's not much in the way of casualties/bloodshed. The world kind of sucks right now.
I don't think anything from the 80s or even 10 years ago applies anymore. It is all about the printing press.
back to where i was a year ago. this is why i stopped adding $ to market after covid dip resurgence. feel selfish thinking about money when putin over there ruining lives. like most here looking to pick up more AMD, NVDA, MSFT. when... i dont know waiting game. i see nvda getting close to $180. also keeping an eye on green energy stocks as i'll rotate back into them when they find a base. in the mean time make money on my paper silver and oil.
should NVDA fall below $200, i'll buy some bullish CALL spread, using LEAPs as the long leg. in the same context, falling below $700 will be the signal for TSLA; and for AAPL, falling below $150
Man, basically on this - Tuesday buy puts and print on Wednesday/cashout all on high premiums before close, then buy lotto calls at close to wreck the shorts you were initially with... It's investing, I mean gambling. I am glad we didn't take any risk trying to chase this trash though.
I've been trying to catch the massive dips this past week pre-market as hopefully opening positions or adding to existing positions. I have a $195 or so limit order out there for NVDA to add to the opening position I started a week or two ago, but unfortunately it didn't hit today. I baaaaarely got into MRVL at 61 before the market opened today. I'm thinking about selling that as easy winnings. I should've probably put buy orders in for more MSFT, but didn't. What a market turnaround -- the DOW was down 859 points earlier and it ended up 92. The NASDAQ was down 3.5% earlier and ended up 3.3%. Unreal. Awesome day. Now to see if it tanks tomorrow. lol.
I'm sure there's some FOMO, but I think it's mostly algorithms. A lot of the FOMO today was probably to sell, too, which apparently was a mistake at least for today. The market always instantaneously overreacts to a lot of news like this -- it's always been the case. The problem is that we can drift lower from this point (or tank again). I'm just mad I didn't put more limit orders out there. As far as the market was concerned, I didn't think the Russian invasion should hit the markets as hard. I'm still watching to see what these sanctions do as far as the markets and then, of course, the rate hikes throughout the year. I'm just trying to get into positions relatively low and have them go up gradually.
Can anyone even try to explain why the market acted this way? Fear of war initially then investors brushing it off? I missed the opening and was waiting for another dip but it never happened. Tomorrow will be interesting.
I think it's a chain reaction of algorithms selling at the open (and before), people's stops being blown out at the open, followed by people getting scared at the open and dumping stocks. But I've always thought it's started/exacerbated by algorithms almost "trying" to make it happen. After everybody's done selling, bigger investors and algos start coming back in and buying cheaper followed by FOMO saying "omg, it's going back up, jump in ...". The stops being blown out were probably placed because "I want to be safe in case there's a sell-off" in the event of rising rates, impending war, etc. I've never believed in the "investors brushing it off" because I don't think mom & pop are out there colluding or on ZOOM saying "ok, guys... at noon we're gonna go back into MSFT!" They may all get scared at the open to sell, but they sure ain't gettin' together and buying all at once at noon. I don't know if this is what actually happened, but whatever it is, it always happens during times of huge market movements. Much of the market is algo/computer-driven. The problem now is will it go down hard again or dribble out of the glass slowly or ... *shrug*.
