I'm actually looking to short the market on close today as well. This market needs to do a little bit of consolidation at the very least, if not correction ... before it can continue.
I was more interested in it while it was touching...I'll just wait and see what tomorrow brings now. Not too worried about missing a move down at the moment
I think I'll take some of my GE and MCD profits now since I'm starting to get way too overweight in those 2... and sell my accidental AAPL shares... now I just need MSFT to resuscitate over the next 4 or 5 years.
Were you the one that was tossing around Ford in this thread? I guess in hindsight that would've been a nice short term play
I knew Ford was a good play all last week. I just didn't want to touch it with a ten foot pole amidst all the bailout uncertainty. They're clearly the stablest of the "big 3" and are actually still healthy -- unlike GM, they're not quite at the "give us money or we're going to die right now" stage yet. They certainly have the best survival chances of the three.
^Even sprint has been decent from their lows to sell now. I don't get how people are thinking bottom when the full effects of the recession hasn't been played out. I read somewhere how housing bubble induced bear markets are much more prolonged than stock bubble induced bear markets. Then again, I don't play with stocks much and am too lazy to look daily on prices.
Nah, I don't think so. I thought about gambling on them, but that's all it would've been. I don't think I ever had the guts to buy it. I'd rather take a long-term chance on commodities like steel and mining companies like FCX or something. The move up recently has generally been broad-market, so you could've had your money in a lot of sectors and made some money... look at steel, mining, auto, homebuilders, financial, etc. they were all battered and they all popped a bit over the past couple of weeks. What I fear now is that there will be a pullback - actually I don't fear it, I hope it happens, because I'm back into cherrypicking some cheap stocks if it does. By the way, I enjoy reading you guys' posts. I know we won't agree on every pick or direction of the market, but it at least forces me to think about alternatives.
This is the question I pose to myself right now - I feel a bottom of sorts has been put in only because we've almost faces a global collapse of entire financial systems. The question I ask myself is what can bring the market lower than what has already happened? The common answer to this may be that once the helter skelter trading (or as some may want to call it "range-bound trading") and VIX settle down, what are you left with? You're left with answering to fundamentals again and the fundamentals stink. Which leads to the final question : how much of the fundamentals are already priced or OVERpriced into stocks? Answering that question is what drives me nuts when I start looking for value stocks because I can't tell what's a value anymore. GE in the $13's? Hell yeah, give me that. MCD under $50 with commodity prices falling and foreign demand growing? Sure, I'll take some! WMT around $50 when the middle-class and upper-class are cutting back? Sure. But stocks like FCX, POT, etc. are harder for me to read - are they oversold or were they such bubbles to begin with that they are getting taken out to realistic levels? I'm hoping the market pulls back during the week - I think it will, I've got money sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy.
I think any technician worth his salt isn't going to believe that this bottom is *the* bottom. The general consensus, I believe, is that so far we have been in, by Elliot Wave theory, the third corrective wave out of five which is characteristically the longest and most violent. This is expected to be followed by a wave four rally bounce, and then wave five, which is the last shoe to drop. I don't know how far out in the future wave five is or how low it will go, but I do know it's not going to last as long as wave 3 did (and if you follow my posts in this thread, I believe that we have in fact come to the end of wave 3).
FedEx slashes outlook, shares fall 11 percent <i> FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX - News) said on Monday it expects to report a better-than-expected second-quarter profit, but slashed its fiscal 2009 outlook as a weakening U.S. economy offsets lower fuel prices, sending its shares down more than 11 percent in after-market trading. The package delivery company's earnings warning came minutes after trucking and logistics company Con-way Inc (NYSE:CNW - News) cut its full-year 2008 earnings outlook. Memphis-based FedEx estimated earnings of $1.58 per share for its fiscal 2009 second quarter ending November 30. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.51, according to Reuters Estimates. The company is due to report the results on December 18. But Fedex also sharply lowered its previously announced fiscal 2009 earnings forecast, to a range of $3.50 to $4.75 per share, from $4.75 to $5.25, as "significantly weaker macroeconomic conditions are expected to offset the benefits from lower fuel prices and the announced departure of DHL from the U.S. domestic package market." Deutsche Post AG (XETRAPWGN.DE - News) unit DHL said last month it would halt its U.S. domestic service as of January 30, with the loss of 9,500 jobs, citing a slowing U.S. economy and an uphill struggle against local behemoths FedEx and United Parcel Service Inc (NYSE:UPS - News). Both UPS and FedEx are considered bellwethers of U.S. economic activity. FedEx said it has lowered its target for capital expenditures for fiscal 2009 to $2.5 billion from a previously stated figure of $3.0 billion. Separately, trucking firm Con-way said it was cutting its full-year earnings outlook to a range of $2.20 to $2.35 a share, from a previously announced target of $2.60 to $2.80. The previous target already had been reduced in October from a range of $3.00 to $3.40. "With three weeks remaining to the end of the year, the company is maintaining a relatively wide range in guidance, due to turbulent market conditions and lack of reliable visibility into an economy which continues to deteriorate," San Mateo, California-based Con-way said in a statement. Con-way is regarded by analysts as one of the better performing less-than-truckload operators, which consolidate smaller loads into a single truck. In extended trading, FedEx's stock fell $8.43, or more than 11 percent, to $66.00 after closing up 72 cents at $74.43 on the New York Stock Exchange. In after-hours trading, UPS shares were down nearly 5 percent, or $2.65, at $55.97, while Con-way stock slid less than 1 percent to $25.60.</i>
In spite of all you unbelievers, I'm riding this DRYS train to the promised land. Got in at $6.60. First stop, $11.09. Ultimate destination, $19.30.
well good luck JeopardE.. it looks good for now. And the whole SDS thing started out ok but has fallen. Might be time to get off that one.. edit: though I'm just going to sit on it and assume it's coming later today or tomorrow.. for now
I'm still holding SDS. 904 is a significant resistance level for the $SPX. I don't buy that it's just going to break through that level without retracing a little bit.
To add to the resistance, we're coming up against the 50 day MA. Looks like it could be a great long opportunity if it does close above.
well i did well on my overnight shorts and it looks like we are really setting up for a great squeeze today. a ton of guide downs overnight and the market is up. setting up well for the perfect bear market rally in formerly weak sectors. if we can have a stronger/more manic close than yesterday then...
To add to that, I'm seeing individual stocks rallying on actual volume ... this is something that was absent from previous dead cat bounces. I'm thinking of putting a couple hundred in CVGI ... still close to support, and it could easily bounce all the way up to $9 should we get a market breakout. Daddy wants some new furniture.
