OPEC meeting coming up on the 17th I believe...although they've been pretty ineffective lately. I'm wondering if $40 holds...can't really see oil going up too much in the near future until there's some kind of economic turnaround.
i've been trying to figure that thing out....it is totally jacked up. DXO and DTO should be up and down the same percentage in a given day but they aren't even close anymore. it has to be something with how these products were designed. i don't get it.
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I don't understand the oil market well, but... http://www.powersharesetns.com/products/crudeoil/ All of the PowerShares DB Crude Oil ETNs are based on a total return version of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index-Oil (the "Index") which is designed to reflect the performance of certain crude oil futures contracts plus the returns from investing in 3 month United States Treasury bills. The Long and Double Long ETNs are based on the Optimum Yield™ version of the Index and the Short and Double Short ETNs are based on the standard version of the Index. The Optimum Yield™ version of the index attempts to minimize the negative effects of contango and maximize the positive effects of backwardation by applying flexible roll rules to pick a new futures contract when a contract expires. The standard version of the index, which does not attempt to minimize the negative effects of contango and maximize the positive effects of backwardation, uses static roll rules that dictate that an expiring futures contract must be replaced with a contract having a pre-defined expiration date. Investors can buy and sell PowerShares DB Crude Oil ETNs at market price on the NYSE Arca exchange or receive a cash payment at the scheduled maturity or early redemption based on the performance of the index less investor fees. Investors may redeem PowerShares DB ETNs in blocks of no less than 200,000 securities and integral multiples of 50,000 securities thereafter subject to the procedures described in the pricing supplement which include a fee of up to $0.03 per security.
It has set one every day for the last few months pretty much as it was only invented back in the summer. The oil thing is too crazy for me to follow anymore. Plus it's an ETN, not a real ETF with underlying assets so if something goes wrong you're just an unsecured creditor, it's a simply a daytrading toy, IMO.
You're right about this, I just loaded them both up and they looked to be marching in tandem till about mid October then the curve steepens for DTO and flattens for DXO - of course had it kept up the same way DXO would now be worth something like -$28.00 right now, must something to do with math that smart math people can do about curves approaching zero or something. Anyway I guess the takeway is that if you want to go long on oil you short DTO and end up with a better return at least until DXO prices approach the $20 range then it switches back.....I'm sure a smarty pants could come up with some graph telling you which strategy is the best at a give price level.
Arrghh.. bloody work, I missed out on the fun! OK ... CRITICAL test for the market again. Pushing up on the 20 day MA of the SPX which happens to coincide with the 3 month downtrend...if we push up higher from here it's bull bull time.
I'm up 11% on DIG and SSO for today...wondering what Monday holds for us...not sure if I should dump or ride it
i'm holding into monday.. just grabbed some AAPL and GOOG pretty close to their daily lows.. edit: I have no basis for doing this.. I'm no expert (always need to put that disclaimer in in this thread..)
I'm tempted to do the same...the market really rallied off of crappy news this week. Could get bullish for a while.
Many are predicting oil to go lower... some even saying down into the $20 range. I gave up trying to figure it out. When T Boone can't figure it out or predict it, I'm not going to say I can.
What a finish... the DOW apparently traded in a 540 range today. Holy crap, how do you set stops in a market like this? That being said, thank God for the boring stocks. MCD and WMT have been beautiful.
I think that it will probably go lower, but when I hear analysts saying $20 oil, I just have to remind me that they were calling for $200+ not so long ago.
Exactly. Goldman, T Boone, and others were saying $150-$200 oil was possible. And here we are in the $40's. But look on the bright side - gas is cheaper... maybe we'll see $1 gas again.
I think oil has significant resistance around 40, and it's going to be hard for it to continue sliding in face of a bullish equities market and an anticipated production cut...but I'm not touching DXO until I see a trend reversal.
there seems to be a definite pattern -so far- on how the market is working. i've made a pretty penny(several grand) by stop and limiting certain stocks. it's almost been like clockwork
