So the market is apparently completely underwhelmed by those staggering job loss numbers (over half a million in November). Smells like a bear trap. I'm going to be quick to pull the trigger on closing that SDS position. The uptrend channel is still clearly broken but this jobs report has failed to break past the resistance of the October lows.
Anatomy of an uptrend: - Persistent even through a horrible November - November lows are significantly higher than October lows - Despite piercing the trendline, November low days still closed above it - Mini bear flag formation in the past few days, precipitating the drop - Drop finds resistance at the uptrend line. I will tolerate it piercing the trend line as long as it closes above... if it does, it will be time to add to the position.
Perhaps the market had already <i>projected</i> a bad number on jobs and the recent price action has reflected it. If one is currently active in the market from either side (long or short), then hopefully the expected things (jobs number, GDP growth, etc) are already taken into consideration before they even becomes published.
Right now I'm inclined to close SDS around the 822 retracement level, since it looks like the market is going to need another push to break below that and head for 792. Is Uncle Bennie scheduled to speak again today?
he isn't important for the second....right now the market cares about the big 3 begging for their money, the crappy jobs number, and rising mortgage delinquincies (which were both mostly priced in). the big 3 are doing such a horrible job that people (including myself) simply unsure whether or not they will get the funding or how it will be structured. people don't know how to position themselves since these idiots are complete wildcards. it seems as if the govt will "have" to do something but if that is a prepackaged bankruptcy then i have no clue how that changes everything. i don't think a lot of other people really know either.
have you had a lot of success recently buying into the rallies? i know you at least looking at relatively stronger stocks but there doesn't seem to be as much value there. i've been killing it by buying extreme short term weakness at support and shorting extreme short squeeze strength at resistance aka "selling the rips and buying the dips".
I've been doing a lot more of following market behavior at significant retracement levels, but selling rips usually seems to work well.
XLF is forming a nice solid base there ... looks like the market support at this point is pretty significant.
Btw I'm leaning towards selling PEC. Something's fishy. If it doesn't find it's way back into the uptrend channel today I'm dumping.
Financials holding up well...commodities are in the toilet still. Wonder which will lead the way into the finish.
insurance stocks very strong today off of hig guidance and pru had solid guidance yesterday but it was largely ignored until the hig guidance today
