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STOCK MARKET: Let's talk stocks and investing

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by SWTsig, Jun 2, 2008.

  1. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    any of you guys use toggle ai? any specific things that you pay attention to?

    took a look cos druckenmiller praised it, but don't know how i should be using it. it's predicting futu will go up 142% in 3 months, that seems to optimistic lol.
     
  2. Plowman

    Plowman Contributing Member

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  3. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    For the finance/bank part of portfolio i've been consolidating in RILY only. P/E of 3. I think the issue with the stock is that the earnings will always be lumpy and hard to predict hence the low multiple. If we are indeed going on a bull run, stock prices will be elevated and companies that it already services will issue more shares, and Riley gets a 2.5% cut for underwriting. A return of spacs would also be good for RILY.

    B. Riley Stock Is Soaring, and CEO Bryant Riley Scooped Up Shares

    In response to a request for comment, Bryant Riley wrote in an email, “Whether [the shares] are up 10% or 500%, I look at the valuation that the market is placing on the company, and clearly I think buying shares at that price is a good investment.”

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/b-riley-ceo-bought-stock-51623437169?st=mugzu0acfmgn5ku
     
  4. adoo

    adoo Member

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    fwiw, indigenous to the banking space, book value per share is more relevant metric.

    many of the top banks, insofar as BV / share, are selling in the low single digits.
    RILY is selling ~15 times Book Value / share; in that connection, it is expensive
     
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  5. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    RILY's price to book is 2.55, is that the stat you are referring to? They are also not a pure play in that they own a few businesses and brands to generate additional income.
     
  6. adoo

    adoo Member

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    yes,

    as compared to C (less than 1), WFC of ~~1, BAC (a tad above 1), JPM and MS of ~1.8
     
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  7. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    Boardwalktech Signs First Recurring License with Existing Fortune 10 Customer

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...h-existing-fortune-10-customer-301312496.html

    I started a medium sized position on this last week @95 cents. What convinced me was their deal with a fortune 50 company which was very heavily hinted to be FB. was hesitant to share this cos its very speculative (even for me), but latest PR gives me more confidence. tiniest cap i've invested in, and last year wasn't a good year for the company, didn't meet their projections due to covid. Based on their backlog (if you believe management), revenue could grow 50%-75% this year and this was b4 announcement of latest deals. At fwd p/s of 10 for a SaaS stock without debt potentially growing at this rate, i think there's a lot of upside. plenty of risk too (higher chance of fraud with small cap?, simple incompetence to execute, etc.), so dyor if u likey.
     
  8. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    so we back to inflation fears again? sigh
     
  9. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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  10. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    saitou likes this.
  11. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    yeah, depends on your risk appetite and how much you are already holding.

    risk/reward is still strong, but there is still a small chance that the trial doesn't get halted early - positive results aren't enough, they need overwhelming evidence without any patient complications that would make the committee want to see more data and the trial continuing. they had overwhelming results in phase 1 and 2 which is why everyone is so confident, but there's a reason treatments don't get approved based on phase 2, the longer and larger phase 3 may still reveal some complications the earlier trials didn't reveal. my guess is that if it doesn't get halted early, it could fall back to $1.50.

    it keeps temping me to add more, but it's already my 4th largest position. i shall try to resist :p
     
  12. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    closed PLTR to concentrate on other positions. only 10% return after holding for months this 2nd time round. congrats to those still holding, i predict shares will rocket up now that i've sold haha.
     
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  13. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    Fed sees faster time frame for rate hikes as inflation rises

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it may act sooner than previously planned to start dialing back the low-interest rate policies that have helped fuel a swift rebound from the pandemic recession but have also coincided with rising inflation.

    The Fed's policymakers forecast that they would raise their benchmark short-term rate, which influences many consumer and business loans, twice by late 2023. They had previously estimated that no rate hike would occur before 2024.

    In a statement after its latest policy meeting, the Fed also said it expects the pandemic to have a diminishing effect on the economy as vaccinations increase, thereby allowing for more growth.

    “Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened,” the Fed said in a statement.

    The central bank also boosted its forecast for inflation to 3.4% by the end of this year, from 2.4% in its previous projection in March. Yet the officials foresee price increases remaining tame in the following two years. That outlook reflects Chair Jerome Powell's view that the current inflation spikes stem mainly from supply shortages and other temporary effects of the economy's swift reopening from the pandemic.

    In addition to having pegged its key rate near zero since March of last year, the Fed has been buying $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage bonds to try to hold down longer-term rates to encourage borrowing and spending.

    The Fed officials are widely believed to have begun discussing a reduction in those monthly bond purchases at the policy meeting that ended Wednesday — a first step in pulling back on its efforts to stimulate the economy.

    There was no mention of paring those bond purchases in the written statement the Fed issued after the meeting. But the topic is sure to come up at Powell's news conference later Wednesday.

    https://www.barchart.com/story/news...-time-frame-for-rate-hikes-as-inflation-rises

    Seems fairly dovish tbh, but growth reacting negatively. Not sure what ppl were expecting. *shrug*
     
  14. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    Idiot reporters outdoing each other asking different versions of the same qn to trick powell into an answer they can use for a doomsday headline and tank the market. Grrrr. Good thing uncle J is slick.
     
  15. adoo

    adoo Member

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    @saitou,

    both AMD and XLNX (w a Golden Cross to boot) up 5+% so far today,

    what is ur take?


    ===============================================================================================




    2023 is still18 mos away.


    my gut feeling is that,

    yes, inflation pressure will continue to rise,

    but there is only one "re-opening"----insatiable global demand for goods/service-----
    once-in-a-multiple-generation economic phenomenon​
     
    #16715 adoo, Jun 17, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2021
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  16. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    AMD tech roadmap looking really good, merger with XLNX getting approved would be accretive. A big qn mark previously was how much prod capacity they can get from tsmc, and Su said it's improving. I won't be adding as I already have other bets going and low on cash, but AMD looks like a good play.

    I came away from Uncle J's interview seeing a greenlight to take risk for next few months at least. Simple message to the reporters - i'm not messing with rates for quite awhile yet, i'm watching inflation but it could be transitory and i'm not acting unless it gets out of hand, and don't bother getting me to commit to your set of arbitrary metrics by which i have to act in future.
     
    #16716 saitou, Jun 17, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2021
  17. adoo

    adoo Member

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    last Fri, when ADBE ~ 542

    had a nice ERS yesterday; pre-market today, ADBE is trading 569
     
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  18. TWS1986

    TWS1986 SPX '05, UH' 19
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  19. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    Averaged down on this to $38 avg. Looks like finally stabilizing at $36. P/E of 7.8, fwd P/E of 6.5. Business looks strong - CEO gave strong guidance and he has been buying. Stock has been weak because a big shareholder (Crestview) has been exiting its position creating an overhang, but that will pass eventually.

    [​IMG]
     
    #16719 saitou, Jun 18, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2021
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  20. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan
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    TWS1986 likes this.

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