Then we might as well stop talking about any specific stock and what type of movement it will do. It's anybody's guess in that case too.
Yes, at the end of the day, what a particular stock or the entire market does is anybody's guess. However, it is MUCH MUCH easier to make educated guesses on particular stocks than it is the market. I would definitely recommend people ask questions about particular stocks in this thread because there are people that post in here that have expertise and experience that can be valuable. But they would be the first ones to tell you that they can back up their stock picks much more than they can back up their guesses on what the market is going to do... ESPECIALLY in times like these.
Have to qualify this statement. Individual stocks can be more volatile than the market itself, but at the same time you're right -- it's much easier to analyze and predict where a particular stock is going rather than the market as a whole. And more importantly, it's easier to know where to set a stop and at what point you can determine whether your trade is valid or not and exit if necessary. Also it's fairly common to see individual stocks carry on their own trend in spite of the market's daily movements ... you could have a broad bull market, and yet for a particular bearish stock each rally wave is merely a short retracement, while corrective waves result in accelerated downward movement.
But being that a lot of movement in specifics stocks are influenced (psychologically) but how the rest of the market is doing, I think it's more than a valid question to make an educated guess on what the market might do in general. A lot of stocks are overly depressed... out of normal reason... just because everyone's scared. If the general feeling is that the market will rally up (and stay up) for the 4th day in a row, it's a good chance that specific stock will rise too.
Look up arbitrage. And yes one can make general guesses as what the market will do. But predicting what the market is going to do in the next 45 minutes when it closes? Come on... My beef is with those kind of questions.
which is incredible to me because we already know they'll suck. how in the world is that fear not already priced in to the market? we've had story after story of the dread and gloom and doom coming from retailers with regard to holiday sales.
When Amazon trades at a P/E of over 30 still, I'd say that bad holiday sales aren't completely priced in yet.
I made good money about a year ago buying (and then selling) some DRYS calls. That dry-bulk shipping sector is volatile as hell, and with DRYS selling their shipping capacity at spot market prices as opposed to longer term contracted rates, they're even more volatile than the sector overall. I haven't followed the sector since then, but I'd caution any casual investor who doesn't have a good amount of time to monitor the market to stay away from that stock, because it can move so quickly
I agree about being cautious with DRYS. With so many other stocks beaten down, the selection to pick from is huge.
I remember owning DSX and DRYS at various points. I owned DSX in the $30's and DRYS probably somewhere around $60 or $90. I saw DRYS was around $3 the other day. The credit markets are killing those companies. Any of you see GS? One week ago it was a $47 stock. Today it's trading at $79. Citigroup has had massive gains as well. I don't own either individually, but do indirectly own GS via BRK.B (which has been screaming back since its lows about a week or so ago). DCA'ing has helped my IRA hugely - especially my GE position in which I'm only down about 5% now. MSFT is the one that's languishing for me. WMT, MCD, and KO are doing fine. I just bought into some KFT and JNJ over the past 2 trading sessions, as well. I know, I know... take that whack large cap, low return stuff outta here... I'm getting a bit fearful of this run-up, though. I may enter some stops "just in case".
My unprofessional noob opinion is that GE and GS are not stocks to go long with. GE because of GE Capital and the poor credit risks they took, and GS because their and MS's business model is completely shot. I guess both companies are dipping their hand in the bailout, but the credit outlook aint pretty.
GS - I'm not sure what's up with it rocketing - I haven't been following it in a month or two. GE had gotten beat down ridiculously low even for the industry (much of) it's in. It was trading around $13 when I bought more of it. I think it's time to be careful with all of these stocks that have run up a lot recently, though. I'm waiting to see what happens next week - retail sales reports and the effect they have on the market should be interesting. Some retail stocks have been popping before Black Friday.
your opinion would be correct...winner! step number 1 to market success is "don't be a hero" and these 2 would certainly qualify.
I bought same solar power shares.!!!!It's up to crude oil price....you know,it's falling. If $' value strengthen,it will be good news.
My mom wants to gamble around 800 bucks on citigroup. I say no because the rally has priced in some stuff, but her insurance friend say yes for the short term (she says she'll call my mother to sell). I guess it'll go up if there's another mortgage asset swap or direct bailout, but I still don't like it because of volatility and my mom would depend on her friend for the timing of the sell. 800 bucks isn't that much money for the risk though. She was planning to do 1600. 2nd opinions?
how about a cruise or vacation or something else instead? hell you could throw a pretty fun party for 800 bucks. that wouldn't be a bad idea.
