Are you expecting bond yields to go down? I thought the fundamentals would be a return to pre pandemic rates? Bond funds only go up when yields go down yeah?
I was half expecting it cos of last week. I actually think SPACs are cheap now. There are Spacs with Decent managers very close to $10. People are scare.
The theory is that short term interest rates will drag down long term interest rates. Short term rates should be acute real time proxies for inflation though the economy is still stalled right now. https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds So it's going to take awhile for pandemic recovery plus stimulus. If you remember that D&D topic, I was expecting another run. If inflation fears are rising, you'd think stocks such as gold etfs or its miners would be used as speculative proxy for inflation. Sadly for me, it's not. Some would say bitcoin stole gold's thunder as a store of wealth, but cryptos have a technical or price barrier (bitcoin or even eth), so it's harder to gauge its impact on institutional (pension and retirement whales) and old money adoption. Plus the recommended weight risk distribution percentage for cryptos are generally lower than gold because of its implied volatility. Even if this call is still a gamble, I'm very chicken and risk adverse. I wish the bubble would go higher and more euphoric for even me to dump more money into. Ofc, timing is always a b****.
in the current real life scenario, in the short term, the Fed has been buying lots of bonds to keep rates around zero the yield on the 10-yr has been hovering around 1.4 to 1.5, was as low as 0.7 late 2020 wouldn't the diff in yield ( 2-yr vs 10 yr) be the proxy for real inflation
Ugly. Reduced/closed my lower conviction stuff that was down less than SDGR and sold SDGR puts. $5.80 for $100 strike 19 march.
double down on selling Apr 105/100 bullish PUT spread---collecting $2.65 premium---defining my max risk of $2.35 btw, w your naked PUT, how much margin you need to put up? for my 5-pt credit spread, the net impact on my buying power is $2.35 (my defined max risk)
i think i need to maintain full 1:1 maintenance margin; but i have the cash to fund it. whenever i get tempted to dip into margin to buy stuff i hear @Dr of Dunk 's warnings in my head, and force myself to sell and maintain ample buffer before buying shares or selling naked puts so i haven't really studied the margin reqs properly. i know nyse/nasdaq shares have 50% maintenance margin, while pennies and warrants have 1:1 maintenance margin.
Do you subscribe to barchart? I still use it and like the data provided, but hadn't tried their premium subscription yet. I mainly use it for options tracking/data.
Mainly FUBO and FSR I am still watching for an entry. I think you probably could trade these multiple times or just hold after the pullback.
nope i haven't tried. so many things going on macro-wise that i don't understand, and so many views/interpretations, was hoping for a good daily summary to make sense of things.
Yeah there's lots of SPACs near $10 NAV now and I'm tempted to double down but the majority of my portfolio is unassigned SPACs but overall I'm trying to get into cash as much as I can and putting tight stops on most of my non-SPACs. My long-time fear, which has started to come true is there's fewer good SPAC deals to be had compared to 3-6 months ago, but there's a ton of more SPAC managers fighting for those deals or SPAC managers who are lazy or greedy and finding crappy target companies so they can just pocket their cut (example: GRSV and SOAC). The market cares more about fundamentals these days compared to 1 month ago and pie in the sky SPAC investments don't fly anymore just because it is EV/Cleantech/Weed related. I bought some April/May VCIT puts as a hedge in case rates keep spiking and the market tanks.
Ya. Too many SPACs, not enough quality revenue generating companies. Two big ones left are Stripe and Plaid. If IPOF and PSTH can grab those, that would be great. Thanks
ERX and crypto keeping me sane right now. TQQQ is getting BEAT DOWN. Surprised to hear some people think that states "reopening" is hurting some stocks (such as my beloved ETSY) - which seems... like an extreme overreaction to me. But at the same time we're going through ongoing waves of mutilation. So who knows what exactly is causing what right now. TAK (been monitoring because of ARK) & PFE (been monitoring because of Burry) seem to be holding up well lately - any thoughts on those?
There's still enough good candidates (Discord, Reddit, Nextdoor, Oatly, etc.) to keep my unassigned positions on but there's just minimal premium given unless if it's a company with a proven product, and not just growth potential so it's easy to get stuck holding the bag with whatever you paid over $10. On one hand I'm hoping this puts SPAC managers in check to stop pumping over-inflated valuations on mediocre SPAC targets but on the other hand, they could get desperate at the closing window and start rushing crap deals just to get deals closed.
One of the SPACS I am hopeful on.... https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...kman-s-SPAC-Target-Ackman-Is-Paying-Attention
