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STOCK MARKET: Let's talk stocks and investing

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by SWTsig, Jun 2, 2008.

  1. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Downside to P/E is it doesn't take into account debt/leverage and growth. if interest rates really rise, big debt is bad. For discussion, did back of envelope calculations taking into consideration cash/debt and looking forward just 1 year. Figures from finviz, formula from link.
    https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/how-to-adjust-price-to-earnings-ratios-for-debt-and-cash

    ATKR
    CAP = 3.03b
    P/E = 16.27
    Fwd P/E = 13.4
    Net Debt (debt - cash) = 620m
    Shares Outstand = 46.92m
    Fwd EPS = 5.05
    debt/cash adjusted CAP = 3.65b
    debt/cash adjusted Share price = 77.79
    debt/cash adjusted P/E =18.7
    debt/cash adjusted FWD P/E = 15.4

    GM
    CAP = 73.38b
    P/E = 11.88
    Fwd P/E = 8.29
    Net Debt (debt - cash) = 80.8b
    Shares Outstand = 1,440m
    Fwd EPS = 6.19
    debt/cash adjusted CAP = 154.2b
    debt/cash adjusted Share price = 107.08
    debt/cash adjusted P/E = 24.8
    debt/cash adjusted FWD P/E = 17.3

    GOOGL
    CAP = 1,377.75b
    P/E = 35.43
    Fwd P/E = 24.92
    Net Debt (debt - cash) = -121b
    Shares Outstand = 675.58m
    Fwd EPS = 81.13
    debt/cash adjusted CAP = 1,256.75
    debt/cash adjusted Share price = 1,860
    debt/cash adjusted P/E = 32.6
    debt/cash adjusted FWD P/E = 22.9

    Of course there's no magic ratio or stat, valuation is subjective, but I think there's a strong argument that big tech isn't overvalued relative to other low p/e stocks. When pandemic hit, googl and fb didn't do as well as amzn aapl due to reliance on advertising, and marketing budgets get cut first in a recession. These 2 could also benefit from reopening, esp if travel resumes.
     
    #15521 saitou, Feb 27, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2021
  2. Plowman

    Plowman Contributing Member
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    I've been in and out since before I first posted about LTHM.
    Now, I'm back in @18.27 for the first time in a good while.
    What do y'all think?
     
  3. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    I think stocks will be with negative money soon. Good luck
     
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  4. Downtown Sniper

    Downtown Sniper Contributing Member

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    It hurts so much seeing ARKK drop $20+ dollars a share in the span of a few days.

    What do people think about this Cloud ETF (Australian sorry)

    https://www.betashares.com.au/fund/cloud-computing-etf/

    It's just come into the Market in Australia.

    Top 10 holdings in the portfolio are:

    Name Weight (%)
    ZSCALER INC 5.0
    TWILIO INC 4.6
    SHOPIFY INC 4.5
    PROOFPOINT INC 4.4
    DROPBOX INC 4.1
    COUPA SOFTWARE INC 4.0
    EVERBRIDGE INC 4.0
    WORKDAY INC 4.0
    XERO LTD 3.8
    ANAPLAN INC 3.8

    Do you think this would be a good long term play?
     
  5. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Probably, but current sell off is focused on high sales multiple stocks with little or neg earnings. Have no idea what's going to happen in short term...
     
  6. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    For aussie companies. Im still long on Atlassian. They make project mgmt software that any company that doesnt run on Microsoft uses. Its like selling shovels to dig gold at this point. Also sitting on a pile of cash.
     
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  7. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Jira is good (to use)!
     
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  8. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    Clickbait title aside, it's a very good video on the mechanics of ETFs and the share liquidity problems ark stocks are facing (after benefiting from it previously). 17:15 shows the stocks that will be hardest for ark to sell. I notice MTLS is right at the top, and since mid feb it has almost halved. @Downtown Sniper
     
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  9. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    Step 1: Buy Nokia

    Step 2:

    Step 3: Profit.

    Gonna' be playin' snake on the moon.
     
  10. Downtown Sniper

    Downtown Sniper Contributing Member

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    I'll try and get to watching that tomorrow after work thanks mate - bed time now unfortunately.

    Tl;dr version - should I disregard the fact it's lost so much already (I bought in at $124) and get out while I can?
     
  11. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    It explains neutrally what's going on well, and I think it will help u with decision-making, but it doesn't predict what happens next.
     
  12. adoo

    adoo Member

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    thank you for pointing out additional financial info that corroborates my point that cash-rich GM and ATKR should be considered.



    btw, this article, https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/how-to-adjust-price-to-earnings-ratios-for-debt-and-cash, is less-than-informative.

    it is obvious that the author doesn't know about debt / leverage / asset coverage / debt-to-equity / degearing ratios​
     
    #15532 adoo, Feb 28, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2021
  13. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    4 March is SWBI earnings date, and D&D is excited(?) over another protest on the same date. Long weekly calls on SWBI make sense? It spiked on 6 Jan, and I recall there were spikes at the height of BLM protets as well.
     
  14. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    Gonna need a +1000-1500 kinda gain from you this week mr. Nasdaq

    thanxxx
     
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  15. jsingles

    jsingles Member

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    No idea what to expect for this week. The meme stocks could add unexpected dumps in the overall market like it has several times already. I'm heavy on ZOM, ENZC, NAK and MVIS. Grabbed 20 shares of AMC and 5 GME in case either of those turn into those lotto tickets the reddit and Stocktwits members have been clamoring for. I don't think it happens, so I'm anticipating getting out of those two with minimal losses.
     
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  16. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    My HK shares are up after last week's bleh. Futures are up. Hopefully this week is better. Sdgr earnings have me excited and nervous at the same time. Not sure how legit this qanon thing on 4 mar is. May just buy some swbi calls as a hedge.
     
  17. CCity Zero

    CCity Zero Member

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    For risky plays - I'm watching TRCH still and maybe this OTC - $LTNC I saw mentioned a decent amount - I haven't read up on it and just saw fidelity won't let me buy it so it doesn't matter. it's a very high risk play but at ~3 cents it might be interesting for another lotto play assuming it continues to be mentioned.

    Also, still wasting time w/ Nokia.


    Your AMC play might work nicely, GME just have to watch super close, the volatility was wild. You might get some crazy lottos on both.
     
  18. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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  19. saitou

    saitou J Only Fan

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    TRCH volume looking good
     
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  20. adoo

    adoo Member

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    gme, SPACs and those of their ilk have been hailed, by some, as YOLO trade.
    i've been playing the market since my high school days, have never come across one that I'd consider as such.

    but i spend time analyzing/researching for TINA trades, as in " There Is No Alternatives"
    in this connection, i have traded heavily on tech stocks, CRM, akam, net, nflx. mvda. amd, tsm, FAANG stocks, ibb, xbi, etc. i've also constructed credit spreads on TSLA, GNRC, DPZ, etc.

    until such time as the Fed changes course, after this coming tax deadline, TINA will continue to be my trading thesis

     
    CCity Zero and saitou like this.

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