The problem is that the SKF doesn't measure anything. It's a daily inverse of the financials, but not an actual one. For example, SKF was around 200 back in mid-July and again October 10. The XLF (financial index) was 17 in mid-July, 13 on Oct 10, and 11.50 today. So the SKF isn't actually tracking an index - it just seems like a fun daytrading tool, but it doesn't seem like it would serve as any kind of sign for a market turnaround?
Whoops - my bad. Same principle though. IYF was much higher in July ($57) than today ($40), despite the SKF being the same at those periods.
Probably no meaningful Rally this week. Perhaps next week, but it will be interesting to see how far it will go before stalling again. Plenty of cash on the sidelines waiting for <i>The Bell</i>, but probably some Hedge Funds along with some recent buyers that would like to get out on the next rally. Instead of people hoping for 9500 and the optimisits waiting for 10,500, the new goals might be 8500 at the low end and 9000 for the optimists. Hoping that Crude Oil can find a bottom around $47 - $48. <i>These are interesting times.</i>
I was feeling lucky today and bought some VTI @ $40. I should make a bundle when I sell it in a year and a day
Still sitting on AAPL that I bought around $89. IRA's getting hit pretty hard, but not worried yet. 401K is about a 4.01k now... There are so many stocks I want to buy now knowing dang well they'll be ok in a few years. Anybody trading options/LEAPs (not necessarily as a hedge against stock positions) for the long term? Any long calls?
I guess I'm going to be paying a LOT more attention to treasuries from now on, because that last graph I posted of the treasury yields predicting this crash NAILED it. It remains to be seen if the lows will hold, though. If not, there are lots of very attractive shorts lined up. Here's looking at ya, AAPL. Target price: $45.
So... question is now, how low and how long will this go? The thing that kind of scares me so far is that the sell off has been almost too calm, gradual and calculated. If the market were to shed more than 800 in one day, I would be a lot more confident getting in the next and calling a bottom. Doesn't seem the US automakers will be bailed out. That's 250k jobs for GM alone. Then there's all the manufacturers, suppliers, marketers etc... that depend on the US automakers buying their goods and services. Oh yeah, and then there's all the other hundreds of thousands (millions?) of layoffs in the rest of the economy. Doesn't seem like there's a super collapse coming either and seems there's plenty of business as usual. Just worried the economy or market will continue to shed value for years to come.
Depends. I think AAPL will eventually get there...when the market finally realizes that people can't blow cash on iPhones anymore. That said, this particular crash may not last long. In fact, we are pretty close to hitting the 50% retracement level on the S&P that coincides with the 2002 lows, and I think the odds of that triggering a violent bounce are pretty high. That retracement level is 775. This would actually validate my previous theory about an expected bounce...I just didn't have the support level right... In case you're wondering, the lower trend line is all the way from the 30s. If that trend is violated, I think all bets are off. It would probably coincide with the US debt rating being lowered or something horrible like that happening to government debt obligations.
It looks like the majority of Buyers are bargain shoppers and the panicked sellers are going to dump to get out. We would need a 25% Rally to get back to the 10,000 neighborhood. That might take a while to happen. The funds are there, but the sentimnet -- mood isn't. Shorter term, a bottom between now and Monday. Not sure if it is <i>The Bottom</i>.
I was just thinking yesterday how much of a microwave society we've become. Everybody is looking for capitulation and some massive wave of selling that forces the Dow to drop 1000 points in like 10 minutes, and they probably won't get it. Just look at that chart above. How is this *not* the most violent selloff this world has ever seen? We're talking about the neighborhood of $10-$15 trillion dollars of wealth that has been wiped off the face of the earth in a matter of two months. Anyways ... the tape this morning is being weird again, and there doesn't seem to be much volume on the follow through on yesterday's selling (which I guess was triggered by options expirations). I'm still looking for the reaction off the SPX 775 retracement level, but it looks like oil has already reached the bottom of a multi-year channel (per Slope) and may be bouncing sooner rather than later.
