For all you professionals, I watch this market everyday, I don't play. I really don't understand some of your longer term positions. I understand that you guys are trying to make money of short term plays, but I keep hearing things like finding a bottom, and I personally don't think we even know how bad this economy is. Even if the market agrees on a bottom, I don't think you will see increases in stock values till early next year. Any thoughts?
I feel the same way except I am "playing the market." It's getting to a point where the money I'm making going short is not getting me as excited because the whole world is about to end. Every week some well-known company is on the verge of death. I work for one of the companies that has already died. It's fun to make a little bit of money here and there but I would rather keep my steady paycheck. NaaMean?
I'll just say that the market has been INCREDIBLY weird over the past couple of weeks. Even today's action has been really, really weird. Significant support levels being broken but even then there isn't much confirming volume, and the market just doesn't seem to know where it wants to go. It's almost like the market is being forced down reluctantly. Right now I feel like if we get back down to 8,000, we're not going to stop there. All the bullish theories are being flushed out with the bathwater right now. It looks like there are still demons left to be exorcised here, and this painful ride isn't over by any means. It makes life pretty tough for those of us who thrive on being able to see where the market is going and ride with it. Even day traders are basically living off extremely short term trades with tight stops now.
I have mentioned quite a few times in this thread that the market will be limited on the <i>Upside</i> until Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds and Individual Investors have worked through the selling issues in front of them. There will be some attempts to move to the <i>Upside</i>, but they will likely be met by selling pressure from those who still want to get out with lesser losses than they currently have. So the rest of 2008 will likely be choppy. Will 8000 hold? It doesn't look like it will. Then again, they haven't designated a person to <i>Ring a Bell</i> when the <i>Bottom</i> is reached so everybody will know it is safe to go long again.
i haven't been bullish on the market in awhile. i've been clearing out equities in my personal account for some big percentage losses but nothing i can't handle dollar wise. it's disappointing because i was up pretty good in my personal account but i didn't take profits like i normally would have because i didn't want to pay the short term taxes dumb dumb dumb...oh well live and learn. i still believe the market is significantly overvalued and i don't think a long term bottom will be in place for awhile.
I wish. The computer here has had issues in the last week in getting to my trading site.. so I'd have to do it in the morning before leaving. Which means tomorrow.. now that it's under 7 cents and I'm in at 17.5.. I'm inclined to ride it out and just hope. I would have sold at 12 if I had another chance, but probably not now..
This is the transition into the realization phase of the correction that I have been waiting for (beginnings of a reverse about a year ago, then there was heavy capitulation last few months and still ongoing) and my majority cash position is waiting for the middle of this realization phase. But part of me worries the US will go into long term recession like Japan and in that scenario, stocks could continue to slowly slide to even worse levels, even below the 7500 target I have been waiting for. I guess I will be watching earnings reports to see how projected PE's are being adjusted. Because right now, citing how low the avg PE's just isn't comforting enough even for investing down the long haul. Although in general I try to invest in globally invested stocks that are taking as much advantage of low-cost labor overseas, I am starting to wonder if dedicating a majority % of any future portfolio to burgeoning countries in Asia, South America, is actually a safer play for once.
For anyone interested this crazy market has provided a unique situation. OVEN is trading for $3.30, but it is being acquired by MIDD for $3.67 in cash plus a small fraction of a share in MIDD. It seems extremely likely the acquisition will be completed as both sides still want it. Therefore, this is a relatively low risk way to make some money in the next 3 to 6 months. Of course, the deal could fall through and you would be stuck owning a dog of a stock.
BTW, most big media news sites have to give a reason for a big jump or big drop in the market even though at times the relationship is very misplaced. Today's reason is that the Bailout Funds will not be used for buying failing bank assets. I know my immediate two catch flinch reactions were: - Is it because the failed banks are in such a dire situation that they are irreparable and can't turn a profit? How much worse will the economy get if they completely go under? - Why is it that the Treasury is having to change course? Do they not know or have an exact plan on how to fix the economy? And where are these funds going amidst a time when people are already so belligerent and questioning the transparency of the use of our tax dollars? My questions were actually mostly answered with this press release right at market close: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...w-TARP?tickers=AIG,FNM,FRE,XLF,AXP,^DJI,^GSPC I find this change refreshing in that it is forcing firms to raise their own capital and not just blindly injecting money into firms that should own up to their mistakes in the first place. It will be interesting how the market reacts tomorrow but AH action shows continued selling across the board.
The Dow could drop or rise 800 points and I wouldn't really be surprised. A flat day would shock me though.
watch a show called Fast Money on CNBC at 4pm (i believe if reairs at 11pm if you can't dvr it) if you want to know the reasons behind the market moves of the day.
Who knows, but INTC just announced some ugly numbers and they tanked about 10% after hours, I think. Tomorrow WMT announces earnings. It should be an interesting day.
That's my favorite market-related show. A very good show, but don't take their recommendations as gospel... some of them have odd recommendations... especially Najarian. I love Jeff Macke : "Jeff, what positions are you in?" "Dylan, the only position I'm in after today's bloodbath is the fetal position!"
