rumor of a secondary offering out there. it's a rumor that would actually make sense but who knows. goldman is going to be a shell of what it once was since they can't do what they were great at anymore.
It is the last Ibanks whose stock hasn't completely tanked. Without leverage what will their earning be? I couldn't fathom paying 70 bucks for a Ibank that earns 6 bucks.
Are you planning on holding things for a while? I am going to sell some things into the Advance over the next day or two and not hold as much going into the end of the week.
I'll be watching the markets closely, but right now the plan is to hold for a few days at least. I believe we're seeing a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern slowly completing, and the resolution should result in a massive, massive rally -- 200 points on the S&P. I'm not sure how long it will take for the pattern to complete, but it will likely be resolved by thanksgiving.
I think it was at <i>Slope of Hope</i> or similar that some were discussing the Inverse Head and Shoulders formation. The technical aspect bears watching, but some other things point to limited buying power. Some have said that the spreads on Merger & Acquisition Arb like HPC -- ASH is a bit wider than normal because some of the traditional players can't obtain the funds to do it. Also, some Hedge Funds are changing things and actively discouraging people from withdrawing funds. Citadel has said that they are OK, but the rumors still persist that they are hurting quite a bit.
Yeah, in the past couple of days Tim seems to have caught on to the H&S idea. I'd been looking at it over the past week, and I became even more convinced when I looked at the S&P weekly chart. The fact that last week's close was just 10 points below the prior October peak despite the harshness of the selling is very encouraging.
After the harshness of the selling last week, wouldn't you expect more of a bounce than what we had on Friday and through this moment today? The <i>Go Go</i> Index ETFs like UWM, SSO and DDM aren't doing much and it has to raise a cautionary flag that the expected buyers are MIA.
well it is a half day for the bond markets and they are closed tomorrow for veterans day. for some reason equities are open tomorrow so we probably won't have much activity til wed.
I didn't know the bond market being closed for one day would influence stocks that much. I understand that bonds are an alternative investment and the markets prefer to have as much information as possible. With so much bad news over the past several months, it seems that most scenarios would be <i>wargamed</i> by now.
Well the action in the bond markets is often very indicative of what's going down with equities. For example, last week bond prices started spiking well before the stock sell-off started. Bonds and treasuries are the traditional safe haven for investors fleeing a plummeting stock market.
A distant friend of a distant friend trades in the bond sector, so it looks like I need to get cranked up on bonds.
There are 3 factors working here, I think : 1) The economy sucks! 2) GS may have its first quarterly loss ever as a public company (this streak goes back to 1999) 3) I've been reading some rumors that GS and C may be talking merger/buyout. If you guys remember, I bought into GS around $90 thinking it was nuts to be trading that low. I ended up selling quickly around $94-$97 (don't recall) just to keep profits when it was going back down. I don't have the guts to get back into it again at any price until I know for sure what's going on.
I think what Robbie is referring to is that since they have changed their <i>status</i>, they won't be able to use the same amount of leverage. Also, things will have to become more transparent to regulators which is a change from the past. You mentioned: <i> until I know for sure what's going on</i> The firms involved appear to be slow in knowing <i>what's going on</i> and it makes it nearly impossible for the outside investor to know. What is pathetic in this mess is that Scholes was allowed to crash again. They should have taken his <i>computer</i> away from him after the first time.
If I gave the impression I was disagreeing with him, my apologies - that wasn't my intent. I enjoy reading his takes (and others') and add them to what I think when making decisions. I was merely adding what I've been reading hearing on GS since it's a stock I used to own a ton of and always thought they were untouchable when it comes to screwing up.
If you look further back in my posts, I kept saying GS was not going to be unscathed. I know quite a few people working in GS and they are scared and don't know themselves how bad it can get. WFC and JPM on the other hand, seem to be a lot better off and did not get as involved. That isn't a buying recommendation though . Dirt cheap acquisitions are great and all but can easily go sour. And more importantly, their stock prices haven't really come to an interesting level. Wallstreet has already priced them in as the financial safeguards.
No problem, it is just my <i>nature</i> (as you know by now). Overall, I think this thread is extremely nice with plenty of informed posters. I wish that it was even more active than it is because some post far too infrequently. Here is a nice read that I have been meaning to link to for a while: Don't Be A Clueless Stock Seller Finally, <b>STP</b> slid back today.
Not me. Of course I don't know if it'll have a bad day either. Still on the sidelines mostly. Isn't there a hedge fund redemption date/deadline coming up soon? Something like November 15th?
