always believed in myself and never stopped working. my parents were trying to push me away from it since i wasn't really making that much money but i saw what others were making and i knew i could do it too. i always knew i had an ability to do this early on based on my ability to pick big winners and i always felt i had a natural "feel" for the market. once i learned how to hold on to those trades longer i really started making a lot more. also when i started avoiding situations where my risk wasn't in line with my potential reward that helped a ton as well. also, with more experience i have got better at gauging my percentages with respect to the trade working. i got better at that by continually thinking of all the crazy random scenarios that could happen while i am in the trade. the main thing is to always keep working, thinking creatively, and believing in yourself if you feel you can do this.
For those that really like the juice, try BGU.......just came out today. http://biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/081105/83_id.html?.v=1
EEV is similar in strategy of course to SDS but with more volatile swings. For very short term plays, great. What steers me away for any longer trades, two things. One, it has an even more extreme gap up or down based on world markets and therefore you have even less control at times. And two, world markets have been gaining more of their own character (instead of following US markets) and are getting harder to predict. Just from a personal standpoint, I know a lot less on how to read foreign markets. Whenever buying an ultra short ETF, it's good to watch its inverse - in this case, EEM - and get a feel for a pattern. You will find they don't always respond in a direct double inverse proportional manner which might seem surprising for first time traders and you can often gain additional info on how it might be traded: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader I will say that EEM is one of the easiest thumbs up choices I have for a person investing in an ETF when recovery is plain in sight. Money will not stop moving to places in the world with cheaper labor and this is one of the easiest, more risk averse ways to benefit off of it. Another specific emerging market ETF I'm waiting on is Vietnam. Market Vectors has one slated and I think Vietnam is just in an amazing position to benefit off of Asia.
crossover, robbie, Thanks for the comments on EEV. I've traded EEM in the past successfully and have to admit the chart on EEV lately had made me a bit tentative, but I'm not betting the bank on this, so if it dips, it dips - I don't mind losing a bit if it does go down. Either way, I don't plan on holding this for long at all.
Thanks for sharing your story. I've been option trading for 2 years now. I was a former i-banker, ironically underwriting all the structured products that subsequently have blown up recently. ha ha. anyways, its hard to hold on to the trades "run" the profit. I had a huge problem with that my first year. the key for me is to go for your first instinct. 8/10 trades that come to my mind are profitable. I agree with the risk reward. I usually dont make a trade unless its 3:1 on the reward /risk ratio.
Well the key to any short ETF is to buy when you think the market peaked. In my case it was after the election. bought into it at 112. Financials are coming down. Will plunder tmw as WF had to raise another $10B. Another thing thing to note, C doesn't look to good. I think it may hit single digits.
I agree ultrashorts are not good investments because of the volatility in them as of late. I do like these ultralongs for long term holdings though when the dust settles: uyg, ure, uym. Right now I just use them for : 1) momentum trading 2) hedges.
robbie380 Thank you for the response about your early years in the business. Is there something the author is overlooking in this story? Ashford REIT
well my initial glance at them tells me they have a crapload of debt like most reits. the author notes all the positive stuff but if they are potentially in violation of debt covenants then everything goes out the window. the way the stock trades it has the chart of a stock that is living on borrowed time. and there is no way in hell they payout that div. they don't have enough cash to do all the things they are saying they are going to do either. doesn't make sense in my eyes but that's me. btw...seekingalpha usually has a bunch of garbage on there passed off as real articles. think of it as the hoopshype or bleacherreport of the stock market blogs. and check out the other ashland/hercules trade i was talking about.
I know that seekingalpha has plenty of bad mixed in with the good. That is why I sought a second opinion. Several weeks ago, I looked for stocks with minimal debt, selling at favorable prices and paid a dividend. Sent you an email and ASH was on that list if I remember correctly. So I saw that arb play for the acquisition a while back.
use finviz.com to try to find stocks like that...very good free screener. didn't get the email....robbie31580@gmail.com
robbie380 Thank you for the link. Will check it out in a bit. <hr> Nice trade, but don't get in a rush.
Well... Dow support at 8800 needs to hold. If it doesn't, there are some very bad things in the air. I'm waiting on the turn for a buy signal.
yeah i didn't have too much long overnight. i didn't really like the support in the stocks i was looking at. i'd prefer that nice rip down to more solid support before i jump in to 60000 shares face first.
more on that aht you were asking about from briefing.com Ashford Hospitality Trust: Beats Q3; no dividend cut yet, but likely in Dec - FBR (2.22 +0.15) : F.B.R says that AHT's 3Q08 FFO/share of $0.26 was $0.02 above their expectations and consensus. They say -0.9% YoY RevPAR growth was stronger than their -2% expectation, although upside was also from stronger property level margins and lower than anticipated interest expense. The company did not cut the dividend concurrent with the earnings release; however the firm says the co currently anticipates making an announcement on or around December 17 as to the status of the dividend. The firm believes it will be cut significantly from its $0.21/quarter level.
Don't know, really. Might as well take your profits now ... in times like this it doesn't hurt to risk leaving a little extra money on the table if you're not too sure what's going to happen next. One can always re-enter if the key support levels are broken.
