Couple of things people don't understand about XOM and the market in general: 1) It's plebes that get wowed by the record profit numbers. XOM has record profits because it is the biggest company in the world. Analysts are not blown away by the numbers -- their actual profit margins are quite pedestrian, and their future outlook isn't very good. 2) Buy the rumor, sell the news. The markets are forward-looking predictors. Often by the time you're hearing the news, the market has already discounted it into the stock price, and people are busy taking their profits (or covering their shorts). Now XOM's CEO is telling us that 4Q might not be so hot because of Hurricane Ike. Well that's good to hear, but the smart money already discounted that in when they made their decisions to sell today.
There are conflicting opinions about this. Some people believe that these worst case scenarios have already been priced in with the crash that we had. Others, like rhad's dad in the quote above, think that this is a fake rally and that we're still going to plunge another 1200-1800 points on the Dow. The third group, which I agree with, believes that we've seen the worst for this year already, and this rally is for real -- will likely last for several months, but there is still pain to come later and we will yet see another major crash before we start to see true recovery. There is likely some truth to each point of view -- the issue is timing. I personally feel that the bears have gotten too greedy and they are overdue for a small nap.
Oh I understand but I still don't agree with WS "logic". They made more than they were projected by a few billion so today's report numbers were not priced in - should have seen a 5% pop before profit takers took money off the table. And I understand that they won't make as much next quarter but name 1 company that is projected to make more. And to me, regardless of their size, they make a boatload of money each quarter regardless of the ecomony. While other companies will struggle over the next year to make a profit, they will still make billions. And what's up with buying AIG or F or ...? Do buyers really think they are going to make money this year? Next year? The year after? 2020? How long can they continue the bleeding before they file bankrupcy? How bright is their future? I'm heavy in energy and this is just a small holding. All my other energy stocks are doing very well today and this 1 is just a small dip but it's just stuff like this that frustrates me.
I think that some of the current purchasers of <b>F</b> and <b>AIG</b> aren't looking out to a year on those companies, but view them as short term trades that they can hopefully take a 10 - 20% profit on a bounce. There might be a few that are expecting those companies to have a significant future, but probably not many. For Exxon, things are probably reversed with many people having long term expectations and a smaller amount with a goal of a short term trade. <hr> I had bought <b>FRO</b> and switched over to <b>DHT</b> . Wouldn't mind going back in to get <b>FRO</b> again. If <b>FRO</b> can keep the dividend at roughly the same levels, then the stock is paid for in 2 1/2 years. I am expecting the tanking sector to hold up a bit better than the container and bulk sectors. <hr> I think that there will be another wave of Hedge Fund and Mutual Fund selling before Christmas. Some more bad loans that will need to be dealt with and probably a few <i>Zombie</i> companies that will bite the dust in the near future. <b>CC</b> should have been gone a good while back.
I hate when I get stopped out of positions where I thought I had big enough stop limits in place... my DDM, SSO, and GS all sold yesterday. I'm still in AAPL, though ... hot damn that thing is rockin'. All the WMT, KO, MCD, MSFT, etc. I mentioned buying during one of the big dips are still there... won't sell them for years... or unless there's another Depression. lol. I still feel like there will be a December'ish drop in the market, but I'm ready for it.... ready to pile in. If no drop, I may start buying anyway. I don't know if we'll test the 7700 DOW lows again, but I'd imagine there are people out there that want to take their profits by year-end... and I doubt all those people are "small time players" like most of us probably are in comparison.
Its hard to put a stop into GS . The range is sometimes 8 to 10 bucks a day. I wouldnt be putting stops into the long ETFS. I just have limit buys in place to keep buying it. DDM at 28. QLD at 28 SSO at 30. Thats where I have them. Probably need to move them up now. Worked twice already.
So I hear RA and AB have soared within the past night. Just bought a ton of them... plan to sell them around June.
Thanks for recommending LDK, I've made 10% on it already. I'm playing long though, so we'll see how that goes.
There's a 30%+ short interest on that... if they ever cover, you may make out big... of course the fact that there's that much shorting of it probably should be considered, too. Hehe.
I ended up picking up some more STP instead of picking LDK, but now that I'm hearing about 30% short interest ... I think I'm going to pick up some LDK on Monday. I'm expecting solars to fly post-election. I'm so pleased with what the last couple of days have given me -- 22% in AA, 20% in STP, 20% in TXT. AA is particularly delicious because it's now forming a very bullish consolidation above the 10 day MA ... this could possibly wind up being my first doubler.
Any of you guys see what Office Depot did the past 4 days? It more than doubled... yeow. Of course this is after absolutely getting destroyed over the year.
Im holding all my shares till 2012 at least. Also have some Jan 10 2010 calls. Also have Nov 20 and Dec 20 calls that I will keep past earnings. Earnings are Nov 11th approx, and I expect them to beat. If the market keeps going up, and some election rally happens, then LDK could be at 25-30 by December. But it truly is a good value to where it will be in 2012.
LDK doesn't have 30% short interest anymore. It is no longer on the Regulation SHO listing. It has 11.3 m shares short out of 106mm. So around 10%.
Hey, have you seen that website that lets you invest in NBA players and trade/invest in them like stocks?
