The warrants aren't really undervalued because they can't be executed right now so you can't actually do an arbitrage. They are basically acting like futures contracts for July 6th and predicting that the stock will come down substantially by then because that's when they'll be executable and all the arbitrage will go away. One of the two (stock or warrant) is wrong, but the smarter money is playing the warrants, while the retail traders are daytrading the stock (and the warrants aren't tradable on places like Robinhood). So there's a good chance the warrants are correct. For anyone daytrading, the stock is fine. But for anyone intending to hold past July 6th, they should own the warrants rather than the stock, I would think.
Yeah, I see what you're saying. Maybe I'm overthinking this. I was thinking people would've bid the warrants higher if they saw the potential for profit. Sure, it can't be traded on places like Robinhood, but even the pros like a bet on "easy" money, so I would've thought those warrants would be bid higher. Even now, I'm seeing the warrants dropped 5-6% while the stock only dropped 1-2%. I just remember watching people talk about those warrants being a steal back when the stock was VTIQ and in the teens, too. Anywho, thanks. I'll look into it some more and probably overthink it more.
I bought more at the end of the day and will probably buy more in the coming weeks and months. I’m probably an idiot though and I will be losing money while you make money on it.
If I think things are getting frothy, what would I reallocate money to? Cash at ZIRP might become inflated. Bonds are propped up by Fed. Precious metals isn't something you bet the farm on. BITC? omg....
I have a bit of cme and considering adding if it drops further. It's already getting close to March lvls. Volatility may be good for business and stop it from dropping too far in a crash (same with virtu). Maybe allocate a bit into gold miners in case gold goes boom? There's going to be a lot more stimulus coming though, i wouldn't go all defensive either.
I bought GLD last August and haven't sold yet. I was waiting for a correction, not a pandemic. LOL. Are you looking at individual miners or something like the GDX? I really wouldn't mind a 5-10% correction here.
I have some MUX, just based on analyst reports I read, it's a small position. Any other precious metal instruments to recommend? I owned GLD for awhile, but while trying to research on precious metals came across gold bug articles against GLD and got spooked (gold stored at HSBC, not exactly the most honest bank). Reading about silver is an even bigger rabbit hole with crazier conspiracy theories so I gave up and haven't touched haha
The other option, in theory, is to go long NKLAW and short NKLA for the next 10 days. Unless I'm not understanding how this works, it seems like a zero-risk $25 premium you collect regardless of what direction the stock moves. However, NKLA shares are virtually impossible to short (my broker says 150% interest rate to borrow). And since the broker is not going to link the two assets, your NKLA short would be considered a naked short, so you could run into margin call issues that are a nightmare to deal with.
via spreads, on jun 12, i had shorted nkla and long tsla tried to sell bullish put spread on nklw, but the premium for a 5 pt spread is way less than $1
Hmm... don't know anything about MUX. I usually don't buy into individual mining stocks because so many things can go wrong, from the commodity itself, to governmental issues wherever they mine, etc. If there was one in the past I would've bought it would've been NEM because their assets and operations are scattered around the globe from what I recall. But I haven't looked at them in a while, so I have no idea if I'd buy them again. I got beat up by SLV a few months ago. I bought it and it tanked, so I got out and it came roaring back. I hate that thing. I was thinking about looking into copper in the event of a 5G/infrastructure play, but haven't thought about it seriously. If I did try to play it, I'd probably also look into something like FCX which years ago used to be my combo copper/gold play, but has been obliterated the past few years probably due to tanking copper prices. Copper prices have started to make a rebound since March, but I'm still wary. I really need to dedicate some more time to looking at a possible infrastructure rebound and 5G buildout, but every time I start, coronavirus news gets worse, so I don't know how far away we are from that. A lot of stocks in both sectors have already run up a lot on speculation as well as this recovery from the March crash.
FYI : Fed puts restrictions on bank dividends after test finds some banks could be stressed in pandemic https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/fed...some-banks-could-be-stressed-in-pandemic.html
I should have sold at 2:59. Lol. I bought at $95.13...I’ll see what it looks like in the morning and probably dump it. I thought everything the fed said was already assumed or priced in but I guess not.
Eh, if you are going to hold, it doesn't really matter if they don't pay the dividends..it just remains as cash on their books...now if you believe that the banks are in for more pain than is priced in, might want to sell.
Point taken re: idiosyncratic risk, I'll prob pick up a gold miner index fund. Re: Copper - sadly it's too useful and connected to the real economy. Even before Rona we were in a manufacturing recession. Looking for assets/instruments that can thrive with a **** economy and mmt haha.
Bought 50 shares of Vaxart at 2.50 a few weeks ago. Absolutely no good reason, I just wanted to grab a random, cheap vaccine related stock. I checked my ticker this morning and it's up 300%. Feels like I won big on a scratch off.
closed out my position for a nice gain though not much of an offset against my long positions...I actually think it will head a bit lower as we see more scale back on restaurants in the near term but figured it wasn't worth the risk. If they do get closer to 60 again, I will probably play their earnings with a put again...
Was tempted to hold shll till the ticker change, but decided to close at $28.50. with my luck I'm sure it will now go to $70 and become the next nkla
