I think he said 4 times more every year, and if you can make that much working at an investing job. That's REALLY attractive to me.
I "day trade" on a wider window, from days to weeks to months depending on the state of the stock. Putting stops and adjusting religiously every time you reach a % anticipated gain is probably one of the most valuable and simple things a trader can do. I try to stick to stocks that trade in a channel with higher volatility, and exhibit some kind of behavior I can call predictable in their sector. One of my main resources is from watching mutual fund activity (firstly, pure volume interest in a stock) and whether the funds have a history of success and "manipulation" (do stocks these funds hold tend to go for a wild ride and in the direction people don't expect?). So far I mainly stay within energy (especially renewables when I play upside moves) and semiconductor businesses. If I play short term upside trades, I try to play stocks I also wouldn't mind holding a very long time, even up to a couple years just in case the stock gaps down or on the flip side, takes off. I kind of think Peter Lynch is a joke; he can quote his investment strategies but probably made most of his money from insider knowledge just like so many pocketed finance guys. Real fund geniuses nowadays like David Einhorn and James Simons use almost all mathematical models. Fatty is being a b*stard but I'll bite a little; I think robbie sounds knowledgeable (and obviously has some understanding with his trading job/certificates) but I kind of side with Fatty on JeopardE's empty advices. Still waiting on sidelines to get in, 80+% cash. (The bottom I keep posting about is 10% below current levels).
you will have time to wait for that bottom. just curious why you think lynch with a buy and hold strategy would make his money off of insider trading? also you should keep up with how those quants are getting wrecked now. btw einhorn does a lot of fundamental valuation trading. his leh trade certainly was not based in some sort of complexed modeling algo.
yeah but the success rate is very low...that's the catch and if you aren't making money then you don't get paid a dime...double catch!
Yup! Robbie's good at what he does. He has the systems, temperament, time, resources and dedication to do well. I know a couple of friends who've lost significant amounts daytrading. Most made money at first -- and figured they knew what they were doing. It's like a drug. You don't know you're going down until it's too late! Not going fatty on you. If you keep your wits you can do well. But don't risk more then you can afford to lose. And don't figure you're smarter then you are! Daytrading ain't investing. It's a business -- maybe. But it ain't investing. Good luck all.
Some more links: <b>Energy:</b> Energy Investment Strategies Platts Zman Upstream Online Bloomberg Energy Prices <b>New Energy:</b> Energy Tech Stocks <b>CanRoy and MLP oriented:</b> McDep <b>Commodities:</b> Commodity Weather Hard Assets Investor Futures Trading <b>Gulf States & Middle East</b> Zawya <b>General Ideas</b> Ockham Research Focus on dividends and historical sales to price numbers. Not much in Balance Sheet Analysis. Green Faucet Trading Goddess Many links on this web site. Seeking Alpha Features written by many people with quite a few being Bloggers. <b>ETF</b> ETF Digest ETF Guide ETF Investment Outlook ETF Connect <b>Dividend and Income</b> Dividend Growth Investor Dividend Detective <b>Hedge Funds</b> Market Folly Richard Wilson Hedgeco Dealbreaker Focus on news and gossip rather than markets. <b>Shipping</b> Shipping <b>Gold Bugs</b> Jim Rogers Video <b>Charts</b> Stock Charts <hr> Jim Grant Video <hr> In regards to the debate about Short Term & Day Trading versus Buy and Hold, I have no problem taking quick profits. Both groups are looking for pricing issues to exploit in their favor. The Day Traders & Intermediate Traders are doing it in a much more compressed timeframe than the Buy & Hold types. My recent experience with GE made me much more cautious about doing Buy and Hold which I did in the past. When they came out with the new offering on the heels of the Buffett deal, it was fishy because the new offering was priced below the previous close. For GE to clip their current investors for a few bucks a share and besmirch their good name left a poor impression with me. I sold my GE moments later becasue I didn't feel comfortable with what they were doing and the lack of transparency on their problems. Now there are stories about them seeking some of the government funding. I am heavy in the MLP area and they came through a few weeks ago when the market rebounded. Distributions are around the corner and so far so good with them. Quants LTCM did that type of trading in the 90's and they crashed badly. Green Light Capital (Einhorn) was down for the year on the last numbers that I saw. DoD............send me an email.
nice list mango...a wealth of info there. also i'd like to invite pippendagimp to drop in and post his market insight in this thread. he called me out in the GARM for being a liar so I'd love to hear his opinions. I never profess to be right all the time. I only try to go with the flow and hope to have a decent understanding of the macro aspect of what drives events in the market. so since I don't make a dime trading I'd love to have him help inform me of my idiocy when I post or make a trade. hell I wouldn't mind it...i know I can be a much better trader and if you can help with anything i'd be grateful. so please mr. gimp don't be afraid to drop by and talk about how big of a whale you are in the market and how much you have made off of being a robbie contrarian. I mean clearly I have to post every single market thought and trade I make on cf.net so I would be grateful to hear how you and your boys have pwn3d me. btw...i got stats and $$$ on my trades and trading so if you want to call me out then don't be afraid to back it up. I don't want to turn this into an internet manhood measuring contest but if I get called out then I don't mind stepping up to the plate. ...yeah the internets iz this important!! lulz.
Hey Robbie, Alot of pro. traders on equity desks I know are calling for some sort of crash this upcoming week. Like a thousand point down day. Do you get the feel that something like this is due to happen in the next week or next few weeks?
As someone who considers trading/investing to be my 2nd job ( really primary the way its been going), I can't believe I haven't commented on this thread earlier. 2008 has been my year- I've nailed almost every move up/down- but mostly have made my $ shorting the market, specifically the nasdaq100. I short the index and also trade options- and have already made $50,000+ this year so far trading. I have a portfolio where my all picks have been listed http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-...nt=open&PortfolioName=recommend&usernm=omar23 Almost everyone one of my rec's ended up in the green. http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/recommend Ranked #21 amongst all the traders there. I mainly use technical analysis/study the chart patterns. My opinion is that we are almost near a SHORT TERM bottom. Not a bottom to this bear market, but I have a target of appx. 1100 in the nasdaq 100, which is about 100 points lower on the nasdaq from the last close. Once we hit that level i'm going long/closing my short positions. I mainly focus on the nasdaq, and at those levels I see a 20% rally in the nasdaq as likely. There are several other good buys, things that I think have hit short term bottoms. One is Natural Gas- ticker UNG. Last at $27.50, and I have minimum targets of $35-$40, especially with the winter months upcoming. Another would be Silver- if silver gets down to $8.50 or less, I am buying in as well, with a target of $14+. Silver can be traded with the silver fund SLV. So this upcoming week is important, i'm looking for one more closing low, and i'm taking my profits with my short positions and going long again. And I'm expecting quite a sizable bounce to follow.
One upper? jk What is your time frame on the UNG and SLV trades? What is your stop loss point on both of those trades?
LOL- I actually used to talk to robbie about the market all the time- I'm still on AIM, if you wanna talk robbie, hehehehe. My time frame for both of those would be 1-2 months. I'd like to get in SLV at 8.50 ideally my stop would be around $8. UNG I like at current levels, stop maybe $25, but i'd be suprised if it got that low. I'll post more on here- don't be a stranger rob!
If you are intent on buying UNG, you should sell (to open) the November 26 puts and collect $1.00 in premium per contract. That way you collect premium and can own the stock if it hits 26.
That would work , but I've already bought UNG at around $30. Also my broker, scottrade, won't even allow me to sell puts like that in an opening transaction. I'm going to continue to monitor UNG closely. I haven't bought SLV yet, but like I said really like it as a buy , but think it'll have one more push lower. But i think this week is very important, one more new low in the nasdaq, and I'm exiting all of my short positions. So I will wait and see what happens this week- looking foward to this week!
