And I ended up hoping on the long oil trade for the short term. We might be able to get a bounce to the mid 30s. I shorted DWTI because I am a maniac. Hopefully it keeps working.
Thanks and I ended up covering today. I could have held it longer, but I just said **** it and banked the trade. We probably do continue the rally in oil on Monday. These bear market rallies with oil are usually at least 3 days. Maybe catch some sort of face ripping squeeze early and then try to get short some of the smaller crappy oil stocks...well that's my hope.
Can someone please explain why financials are tanking while beating estimates with lower expenses and higher profits? I saw ROE is down, but is that why??
Because no one believes the reserves they have against energy exposure is adequate. For some reason the Fes is allowing them to under-reserve on some pretty ugly loans. Fear of sub prime all over again. Probably isn't anywhere near as serious...lower leverage at the banks and issue is (currently) much less widespread...but fake accounting spooks people. Plus lower fees from new debt issuance and lower M&A activity.
What do you guys think about this? At first I thought the premise was silly, but it makes sense and could be worrisome when you think about how huge passive index funds have become. http://www.businessinsider.com/ackm...nd-it-risks-turning-america-into-japan-2016-1
So I've lost a lot of money over the past year by holding on to my stocks hoping for a bounce back. How do you guys think the market will perform in the next couple of years? I am long and don't want to sell my stocks and take a loss. When will it return to the levels from a year ago?
Vale has a decent chance of going bankrupt. AAPL is fine but will probably trade lower in the near term. I'm hoping to buy some in the mid to low 80's. If it got to 75 I would buy too much. I don't expect AAPL to trade up to that 120-130 level for a while. AAPL has a "problem" that they make a lot of money overseas and the dollar is very strong and it drags on their earnings. They are stable and they are expected to continue with their dividend increases and share buybacks. KMI I think the stock has stopped going down, but don't expect it to go back up anytime soon. It will be many many years before KMI gets back to the price level it was a year and it likely won't ever return to that price. I got slapped around a bit trying to buy these pipeline stocks as investments, but you have to recognize when throw the towel in if you are going to be in individual stocks. The SPY is still by far the best and easiest way to be invested in the market for people that don't want to do anything other than consistently contribute money to the market. Overall, I expect the market will continue to trade lower maybe 10%+ below those prior lows we just had. It could go lower, but that's just my guess. Either way I wouldn't expect a market rally anytime soon. Sideways to down is the way I think we are going to trend over the next 12-18 months. Too many indicators are pointing that way. Also, a recession for America is looking more likely.
Just put your money in a low expense index fund. http://fortune.com/2015/02/03/berkshires-buffett-adds-to-his-lead-in-1-million-bet-with-hedge-fund/ The data says close to 80%-90% of money managers will lose vs index fund. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-beat-active-90-of-the-time-really-2014-08-01 I don't understand why people think they can beat the market. The odds say you can't especially over the long term. Do you think you are one of the 10%?
I know several people that have very closely perfected the art. To them it is not gambling at all. But for me, oil might as well be gambling. Oil is the one thing that always gets me. I'm not stopped out yet, but probably will be tomorrow. I should stick to the /es and /es related products, but I just can't seem to leave oil alone. But we will see with the oil trade. She's getting near resistance that will give her some trouble.
