None taken. I think I have predicted it to go down once before in this thread. Maybe twice. Not too concerned with 0-2, when you are trading. And my point has always been, this thing isn't going to last. And saying it will be down over 50% is a little more than merely predicting it to go down.
I see a drop but not one that big or that long. Aapl generates some pretty serious cash during Christmas.
They are trading nowhere near book level. I am not saying they are going to 300, but tech tends to swing very fast. Look at rimm.
That is a fairly dangerous way to look at the market. The market is forward looking, and when you look forward, there are no certainties. Cash position is meaningless if the future of the company becomes questionable. You may not see that happening, but that is what makes a market.
cash + earnings + margins + dominant ecosystem = not going away in 18 months and please tell me how aapl is going to become questionable in 18 months. i think you were saying aapl would crash to less than 100 18 months ago or something ridiculous. the earnings may flatten out, but i think the market has already priced that in. even with flat earnings they could have close to $200/share in cash in 18 months while earning close to $50/share. also, i feel pretty confident in saying they will likely increase the dividend within the next 18 months as well.
RIMM also refused to adjust to the market. There are no signs that AAPL is going the way of RIMM in 18 months. I understand your point about tech earnings being volatile and I agree 100%. That is why AAPL isn't given a premium P/E multiple.
How long have you been trading stocks? You are telling me I was wrong before? Better get used to it if you want to survive in this business. Here's a shocker, I might be wrong again, that's what makes a market. But if I am right, by the time you figure out why AAPL SHOULD be worth $300 fundamentally, the price would have already been sitting there for months as you are still holding the bag.
Nobody is saying AAPL will go down 90%. There are a multitude of factors that can cause a 50% correction. Bag holders being the primary one.
No it's not that you were wrong, but how dead wrong you were with your call and your logic for the call. I think the last time we had this conversation you didn't even know how much cash AAPL actually had and I had to show you in the SEC filings. I know you can't and won't do it, but i'd love to hear you explain your fundamental analysis that yields a $300 price for AAPL. I know you don't care about cash, cash flow, earnings, div yield, etc. so let's hear it. Maybe you should look to structure some longer term options trades if you are so convinced of such a titanic move.
This is a good read. http://www.boombustblog.com/blog/item/6207-after-my-contrarian-calling-apples-3rd-miss-accurately-i-release-my-apple-research-track-record-for-2-1-2-years
I agree lack of diverse product portfolio is the main risk with Apple. That is why they trade at such a deep discount to the market despite their growth and cash position. That future may play out for Apple but it is hard to see that happening within 18 months.
I have Apple fair value at around 630 dollars per share. I think its a good time to make a quick buck. robbie your right apple is flushed with so much cash that you need to calculate that into the price of the stock.
First: Anyone think the exchange rate flucuations from China will factor into the markets for the next couple years? From 2005-2008 the rate was exponential, then flat throughout the US recession, and then became linearish from 2010-2012. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DEXCHUS I wonder if the rate will begin to show what it did this past summer for the next few years, and will ultimately flatten out again. China has helped out many companies these past few years. I feel that everytime they change their rate to go up, it will lead people to pull money out of China, which could negatively impact their domestic demand. Any chance the current downturn in Q3 reporting was due to losses through currency exchange in both China and Europe? I know companies like Walmart and Apple are dependent on China for almost all of their sales growth. Second: Greece has to approve budget controls on the 11th of this month, the EU will issue a report on the feasability of a further Greek bailout on 13th, and the Spanish are issuing new bonds. My question, what is the degree of certainty that Greece will default by the end of this month? I am going to hold cash for the next few months.
Well most of my stops were hit today. Sitting in cash and will wait until they get this "fiscal cliff" issue fixed. I might miss some profits but I'm going to lock in and wait.
Fox News Channel suggests that gold and silver make excellent investments in times of crises (aka Democrat Presidencies).
