I am not suggesting to go Long on the Treasury Operations days, but at least think twice before going Short on those days. Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule
I'm about a third into the Murphy book. Still pretty skeptical, it seems like there is a tool that explains every outcome, but it's hard to see any consistency of process.
Bonds absolutely ripping, probably means lower equity prices to come. Keeping stop on medium-long term short at previous pivot high of 1130. Short term shorts were stopped out a week or so ago at 1020ish, doh. EDIT: potential support around 1050 on SPX. Could get ugly below that.
Great call. That is my line in the sand, right around 1140 which is the 61.8% retracement from 1220 to 1010. If we break above that I will probably start to look for long setups, otherwise still looking to short for medium-long term. Short term just play the waves, maybe a long around 1050 if things setup.
I haven't done much trading personally the past 3 weeks, still in the process of doing paperwork for a new position. I should be opening up a new account in 1-2 weeks. I plan on starting a new thread then and track some of my own trading. Also at the same time explain the setups. Thanks for the interest.
I have a question. Why is the volume bar Red when the day was up? Is it because it compares the close from the day before and the close of today? Also, are Gaps between days usually caused by international trading?
Price bar is green = close higher than open Volume bar is green = close higher than previous close Earnings, premarket data, international trading, general buying, general selling etc. etc. Anything that causes price fluctuation in non trading hours. In other words the same reason the market goes up and down in regular hours.
Notice what is taking market leadership these days? While tech(semis) and financials lag, the strongest sectors have been REITs(IYR), Utilities(XLU) and Gold. This has been going on for months. So money is chasing yield(IYR/XLU) and safety(GLD/GDX), while ditching growth(SMH/IWM). In the long run this is obviously bearish, and does not contradict our longer term stance. This is not to say we can't buy in the short run when good risk/reward presents itself. Like on 8/25.
There looks to be some structural changes for the moment with the higher risk items like JNK, HYG and various MLPs appearing to be toppy. With an apparent reduced flow of funds into those areas, it might be too late to dive in. It is still to be determined if interest rates are truly at a reversal point, but Larry Williams thinks that they are. <a href="http://www.ireallytrade.com/TVStation/LarryTV.html">Larry Williams videos</a>
I don't think it is yield alone that money is chasing, as JNK/HYG have not outperformed. It is more high yield along with low risk. Utilities would be a prime example. A sector that your guys have been pointing out for awhile. Not sure I view that as a bullish indicators for the general market though.
Risk/reward no longer favors the long. Would take profits here and initiate short term short position. Medium-long term no bias- in trading range.
I like the index shorts at this point. The index that affords the best risk/reward is the N.asda.q (N.D.X). N..Q short at 1900, with fairly gracious stop at 1945. Max risk $900 for every contract taken.
I assume cxbby closed out those Apple shorts some time ago. New highs after everybody said the stock price was toast.
Apple has a lot of room for growth, and they have a few emerging markets cornered. They're going to be profitable for the next 5 years, but I don't expect their stock to grow by more than 20% in that same time. Their market cap is redic already.
