Something to note is that the expensive large Caps such as AAPL, GOOG, GS and IBM are still Red today while SPX is still Up. Also, those four stocks are running on lower than usual volume. Some type of move might be looming around the corner and it could be Down before more Up.
SPX is an inch away from its 200SMA and about 3 points shy of its retracement level. I would put some on if we start to show some weakness in the afternoon. Otherwise, if we close near the highs, I would stay away and see how it reacts tomorrow.
I am still unsure what will happen, but having those four expensive stocks just sitting on idle and not close to tracking the overall Market is something to think about. The alternate Bullish take is that they are being <i>held back</i> and will get moved Up towards the Close to move the Market higher.
i get the levels and risk/reward, i just meant how do you handle noise around key levels on these longer term trades. When you say your stop is 1103, are you literally out on the first print over 1103 and that's that, and if not, what sort of confirmation, such as a daily close above 1103, are you looking for to tell you the level has been broken and to get out of the trade?
1103 means the next print at 1103, not end of day close. When I am unsure about the risk/reward, I give it a standard 3 point stop. When I am more sure about WHERE the target is, I give it a proportionate stop to handle the noise. So if I am looking for a 100 point trade then maybe a 5-10 point stop. A 200 point trade, I actually gave it to the level ABOVE the one I got in on(1120), 1150. So a 30 point stop. Once the trade starts working in your favor, I start to trail my stops. EDIT: Showing a little weakness as I type. EDIT: BTW I usually do not get in on one shot. I scale in. So for example, I actually started to short very minimally at around 1100. Then added at 1120 for an actual position. Then added again when we opened at 1130 that day. So my average was about 1120. But had we gone higher, I would have added again at 1140-50, right before my stop. So the final ROOM that I give it would have been less than 30 points, since I would have had a higher average than 1120. Always scale to deal with the noise. HOWEVER. You must be an experienced trader to handle scaling. If done wrong, it is the most dangerous trading technique there is. You could just short and short and short and keep adding until you get blown out. You HAVE to have a predetermined, planned, stop. Making decisions on the fly, while scaling, is a recipe for disaster.
The takeaway seems to be that TA masters like Tim and the CXbby's don't seem to have much of read on the market lately.
Ha. Nope. Not much of a read at all. Sucks to be short from 1130 and 1200. At the end of the day, TA masters don't concern themselves over whether they are right or wrong each time, just how much they make when they are right compared to how much they lose when they are wrong. We are not in the business of predicting the market's every move- those are called magicians, who deal with magic. We are in the business of playing the odds, and making money.
If one wants to be <i>selective</i> and pick specific <i>Snapshots in Time</i>, then that can be said about anybody who does this regularly. If one does have some ability, then it will shine through on a long enough time horizon. Both Tim and Cxbby have shown flexibility over the time that I have been observing them while <i>Atilla </i> from <i>xtrends</i> has been more rigid in his POV. What do you base your decisions on?
I hear the "As long as you never sell when down, you never lose!" methodology is very popular. When you're never wrong, you never have to manage any risk! Practical and simple. Does it work AGBee?
I'm sticking with financial astrology for now. It's can't miss! http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-pre...omments-for-the-week-beginning-july-26,-2010/ On Saturday, July 24, the 13-year waxing square of Jupiter and Pluto takes place. Since Jupiter turns retrograde at this time too, it will square Pluto a second time just ten days later on August 3. This is a signature that implies exploding world debt (again), as well as the potential for large losses due to natural or man-induced disasters (it has an orb of a few months, but could relate to the crisis in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as a drought). On July 26, the fifth and final passage of the 45-year Saturn opposition Uranus aspect will take place. You may remember the first time this happened on November 4, 2008 (the USA Presidential election). You may also remember the last passage of this same aspect on April 26, which still stands as the yearly high in many world stock indices, including the USA. On August 16, the second passage of the 20-year Jupiter-Saturn opposition will take place, which also refers to major changes in the direction many world governments. And finally, the third and last passage of the 32-37 year waning square between Saturn and Pluto takes place on August 21, which has correspondence to world-wide government debt, much like Jupiter square Pluto does. The difference between Jupiter-Pluto square versus Saturn-Pluto square is that the former wants to attack debt by increasing spending (i.e. economic stimulus programs, ala Keynesian economic principles), whereas the later wants to attack the exploding debt by cutting back on spending programs (i.e. austerity measures and economic contraction).
That is interesting because Merriman has been around for quite some time. The really interesting part is that I have been debating posting a link for a while, but wasn't sure if it was appropriate. Now that you have opened that door, the inhibitions are gone. Rare “Cardinal Climax” Planetary Alignment This Summer Puts Stocks at Risk, says Veteran Sky Watcher
That's only a half-assed approach and not nearly fiscally-assertive enough. Suze Whorman told me I should be 'dollar cost averaging' as well - when you're down big, buy more and just lower your overall cost basis. Over time the market always goes back up and your doubled-up doubled-up lots of penny stocks eventually get back to the highlife, so it's a can't lose stratagem.
I am no expert, but why ride the wave of failure, when you can reassess and get out early and take that wave and turn it to your advantage?
I definitely wouldn't call it a "can't miss", nothing is. But I have brought up Merriman when talking about book recommendations. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=5379088&postcount=3923 Those are actually the "unconventional" TA that I have been talking about lately, which are decidedly negative well into August. I know some of the indicators you look at have turned bullish, like the positive divergence in the McClellan Oscillator at the last pivot low. But these unconventional cycles have really been spot on(one of the reasons for my 1200 short). So I am willing to wait a bit longer to see a confirmation of... something. Either these cycles are wrong this time, or the markets are about to fail. Either way I will give it a little more time and room, since there is such a conflict between conventional and unconventional TA. AGBee, not sure if you were joking when you brought this up, but it definitely surprised me, reading that on a Rockets BBS, of all places. HA!
Prada, sarcasm does not translate well on the internets. But I do not want to get anyone hurt. We are being disingenuous talking about "averaging down" and "holding losers".
I read lots of blogs, newsletters, and yes, this thread Most of my posts are sarcastic or gentle ribbing and shouldn't be taken seriously. And nobody should read a post here or on any other forum and think that they've found a silver bullet for the market. I love Tim Knight's blog. I share his sentiment in wanting a trending market and not this vomitron that we've been on this year.
Tim Knight is a terrible trader. I used to read his blog back in 2005/2006 or so and he is the master of the illusion. He would list about 25 stock patterns and setups and then when one of them goes his way he would act like that is the only stock he is playing. He would then conveniently forget to mention all the other plays that didn't work out. Another thing I noticed with him is he is a perma-bear. He refuses to believe there is ever an upside to the market, and when there is upside to the market he conveys the reason he was wrong is solely due to government intervention and not his own improper analysis. The best traders have no market bias as to bull or bear. They only react. It is funny you mentioned that he would like to see a trending market. The reason anyone would say that is because anybody can make money in a trending market. My 80 year old grandmother can ride to riches in a trending market and she doesn't even know the difference between the NDX and S&P. The real traders like at the shops of Goldman and SAC Capital are the ones who make money in any market. Day in and day out they out perform everybody. It always strikes me as funny to see amateurs try to beat the professionals at their own game. Trading equities, commodities, futures etc..should only be left to the professional. This is the only line of work where an amateur thinks he can be better than a professional. You don't see an average Joe off the street represent himself in court or start treating sick relatives thinking he is a doctor. But then again, it is good for the professionals to have these amateurs participating in the market, because there has to be dumb money in the market for the professionals to scoop it up.
So what exactly is your point? Never claimed to be a professional. Why wouldn't I want an easier to trade market? Man, somebody must be losing money to be this pissed
Oh apologies, I wasn't targeting you or anyone in this thread. I was just criticizing Tim Knight. The only criticism I had was in you saying that Tim Knight is a good trader. His primary business isn't even trading, but rather software production and blogging. I don't trade even trade stocks. I only trade Gold Comex contracts for my firm.
