I don't know about you guys, but since our glorius rise from the ashes in March our dollars has since plummeted around 13.88%. Instead of 30% taxes, it's now 43.88% taxes. Do you guys think we are already in hyperinflation? Or is the world just telling us to take our dollars are shove em'?
It has been <i>difficult</i> to be a Bear lately. Bulls have had a good run, but are they willing to hold their Longs over the weekend or take profits today? Are there going to be some bold Bears that will take some risk and initiate a Bearish position today?
Yeah Mango, I would'nt be long right now even with Ron Artest's money. As, a result I'm down quite a bit right now on my S&P puts (Oct & Nov expiration). But, GLD and OIH have been my friends. As long as Mr. Helicopter keeps on printing, I'll keep on hedging with commodities. I'm looking at HYG ETF. It looks like a rising wedge formation. This bond market looks a little suspect!!
I hope you have a Stop under your OIH position because it tends to move a bit more than XOM and CVX. XOM couldn't hold 71 for the past few days and was rejected again this morning. Now it is trying to stay above 70. CVX has had a nice run and probably some will have Stops in place to protect profits. Crude and the related USO don't have the same spring in their steps today compared to earlier this week.
No Labor Day massacre as it turns out. The market is being held up by the deteriorating dollar. This is not due to real buyers, as evident by the low volume drift upwards. The real play here is not a long on equities, but the breakout in gold on spike in volume. As noted in my previous post, the general direction of SP500 should be down if the breakout in gold materializes. Not the next 20 points, but the next 200 points. Also as I've previously noted, the easy trade in gold is through the $960 level($95 for GLD), a breakout of the triangle formation. Once the pattern was breached, we had a vertical 40 point rally. The much scrutinized $1000 resistance is actually a sucker's trade, as seen now by the amount of noise here. Trying to buy/short through $1000 has been suicide, as both sides are in a tug of war. I expect continued congestion here, but welcome a spike higher too.
Good reading material on the prospect of both inflation & deflation at the same time: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1190991990.php
Yes, the weaker Dollar and increased liquidity through POMO activity have helped the Bulls in recent months. Overview: High levels of liquidity fuel equities gains There are various stories mentioning that POMO activity will dwindle some as we approach the end of 2009 and then it will be interesting to see if the Markets are able to sustain current price levels. I wouldn't mind if Gold some off some so I could reload on HL at a lower price point.
Your Long Gold trade fits with this seasonal futures strategy. MRCI's Seasonal Strategy #3486 <i> Gold(CMX)-December Buy on approximately 08/30 - Exit on approximately 09/28</i> Perhaps two weeks from now you might reassess the trade idea?
A writeup about the current state of the U.S. Dollar. Dollar becoming top carry trade currency A short video showing some intraday linkage between ES and the Euro. ES -- Euro
Great read and video Mango. Man this market is on fire. Looks like it's going to S&P 1100. Wonder if my dollar wil be worth anything by then?
It is <i>disappointing</i> that the U.S. Dollar has to get <i>beaten down</i> to make stock prices move upward.
I'm wiping my ass with dollar bills since it's worth less than toilet paper. Dow 10k down, 20k around the corner?
I don't know. I bought into the Dow & S&P via ETF's long ago and plan on leaving it there. My rollover IRA is back to about even. I'm up in my Roth. I'm still down in my trading account and still have a bit to go to break even. I've been looking for a bit of a retracement/correction for a while now and haven't really gotten it, so I've given up. On top of that we're seeing companies report decent-to-good earnings. I piled into higher dividend and solid stocks like MO, KO, MCD, etc. a while ago and don't plan on selling my positions in those. BTW, this thread is awesome - we pretty much recorded US history with our commentary over the past several months.
Note to self: Take advantage of mankind's infatuation with psychologically satisfying numbers such as 1's, 5's and it's known derivatives.
