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STOCK MARKET: Let's talk stocks and investing

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by SWTsig, Jun 2, 2008.

  1. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    In this weeks barrons they went over the top brokerages and their focus lists. Goldman was 3rd over the past 5 years behind morgan keegan and citigroup global markets. Goldman returned 6.59% versus -10.72% for th s&p 500. Over the past 6 mos they are 6th returing 9.73%.
     
  2. LCII

    LCII Member

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    Loving C right now. I bought it around 3.40 dollars a share. here's hoping it goes up to 10 or 8! Then I can splurge a bit. :D
     
    #3442 LCII, Aug 22, 2009
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2009
  3. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Yeah, I bought in recently during this run-up, but still kicking myself for not buying when it dropped into the $3.80's a few days ago.
     
  4. Mango

    Mango Member

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    Time for a new week in the Markets.

    WTIC is at its June highs while some oil sector names below aren't.
    <center>
    [​IMG]
    </center>


    OIH has not confirmed the upward move in Crude.
    <center>
    [​IMG]
    </center>


    XOM appears to have resistance at 70.
    <center>
    [​IMG]
    </center>


    CVX is also similar to other oil sector names in that it isn't reaching its June high while Crude has.
    <center>
    [​IMG]
    </center>


    Since Fall 2008, DIG is on thin ice when the price gets over 30 and struggles as it gets closer to 33.
    <center>
    [​IMG]
    </center>

    <hr>


    Crude Oil


    The huge dropoff in Crude prices in the second half of 2008 was caused by some combination of:

    1. Slower economic activity and reduced demand.
    2, Reduced appetite for risk.
    3, Liquidity issues for some Hedge Funds and other major players in the commodity markets.

    I have read several stories - analysis pieces about Crude being overpriced and how it should be at varying prices
    from $50 to $30 with possibly a very short dip to $20.

    #1 above is still applicable, but there is plenty of appetite for risk at the moment and with governmental money being pumped into
    the system, liquidity isn't a concern.


    So as long as there is a fairly stable situation in the various Financial, Stock and Commodity Markets, then it is hard to imagine
    Crude dipping below $50. Of course anything is possible after what has happened since January 2008.


    A read about Natural Gas
    Natural Gas


    <hr>

    Monday appears on the POMO schedule.
    POMO schedule
    So it will be interesting to see if there is a <i>floor</i> under the market if we have a Dip on Monday morning.

    Perhaps some trades that will need to be unwound this week since we in a Post OPEX situation.

    There is a possible <i>End of Month</i> impact that might provide a <i>floor</i> later in the week.
     
  5. Artesticles

    Artesticles Member

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    Well I just got in C, obviously meaning that we will now have pullback. Sorry fellas :(
     
  6. OldManBernie

    OldManBernie Old Fogey

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    Hmmm... so I think I sold FNM a bit prematurely. :(
     
  7. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Let me guess... you bought it when it touched $5. :D
     
  8. lalala902102001

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    Market is taking a free fall right now...what's going on?
     
  9. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    it doesn't have to go up all the time ;)
     
  10. Mango

    Mango Member

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  11. LCII

    LCII Member

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    People taking profits
     
  12. Mango

    Mango Member

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  13. OldManBernie

    OldManBernie Old Fogey

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    You really weren't kidding about ruining C for the rest of us. Thanks a lot buddy. :)
     
  14. Aces Rothstein

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    This market action is crazy! Can somebody please explain to me why the market is still up when the damn $ is up by about 0.66% as I type? Also, I'm looking at GLD hanging in there with the strong dollar. Might be poised for a breakout. I was looking at Cxbby's chart analysis on GLD (in the other forum) and I think he's spot on!
     
  15. Mango

    Mango Member

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    POMO Schedule


    Code:
    
    Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule
    
      	
    Operation Date        Settlement Date        Operation Type1   
    	 
      	
    August 24, 2009       August 25, 2009     Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 
    	 
    		
      	
    August 26, 2009       August 27, 2009     Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
    	
    	 
    
    September 1, 2009     September 2, 2009   Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase
    			
    


    This is in regards to this past Monday which was a POMO Treasury day.

    There is more to read and some interesting charts at the link below.

    MBS CLOSE: Fed Buying Sparks Fixed Income Rally


    <i>
    Although the day began on an ugly note with MBS reaching as low as 99-15, an early stabilization followed by some friendly news from the Fed and what was an early 7 tick loss turned into a half point gain by the end of the day. That's a ysp-analogized swing of nearly three quarters of a point. Not bad... Chalk up the early stabilization to MBS following tsy's cues during a short covering rally ahead of tomorrow's auction. The consensus on the bigger mover of the day would be the NY Fed's purchase of just over $6 bln of 2-3 yr notes out of $29.4 bln offered. The offering was only slightly above average for previous repurchases in this maturity range, but substantially higher than the previous repurchase. This was bigger than expected and in seeming contrast to completion of the phasing out set to end in October. Wait, what?

    Plain and Simple:

    On a scheduled basis, the Fed buys back tsy's in order to make adjustments to their balance sheet or as a sort of support mechanism for existing policy. So you can think of it either as an accounting necessity, or simply "fine tuning" of their monetary policy. Either way, today was beneficial.

    The purchases are made from primary dealers who offer up the securities for the Fed's perusal. Today, the menu consisted of 2-3 year notes totalling $29.4 bln. Of this, the Fed took down $6 bln which is higher than expected. In short, this shows a bigger demand-side of the equation than the markets had baked in, thus prices rise.

    But additionally, it goes counter to some of the commonly held beliefs about impending Fed purchasing. Many believe (or believed?) that the amount of purchases would be gradually decreasing into October when the treasury purchase program is currently slated to end. The fact that they bought more than expected AND that there was no deceleration in purchasing in a week with actual treasury auctions causes speculation that they will also be a bigger than previously anticipated buyer later in the week on longer maturity treasuries. In fact, the long end of the curve (longest durations/maturities) was the biggest benficiary of the day.

    As you may already know, when the long end of the yield curve benefits, the general implication is for lower MBS coupons to benefit as well since they have longer durations.

    Whether you care about all that or not, the moral of the story is that today was a good day and came close to erasing much of Friday's damage.....</i>


    <hr>


    If one is looking at shorter trading cycles than <i>Buy & Hold</i> types, then develop a routine - structure of reviewing what you saw in the latest market action and then try to get an idea of why it happened. Then you will be more comfortable when you see something similar happen in the future.
     
  16. Mango

    Mango Member

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  17. LCII

    LCII Member

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    When the latecomers/bandwagoners come in, you know its time to sell the stock.
     
  18. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Member

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    Um....AIG is through the roof AGAIN today (and late yesterday). WTF is going on? STILL a short squeeze??
     
  19. ArtV

    ArtV Member

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    Normally I'd agree but actually I think there is still plenty of room to run for this one. If you look at financials, they have been lagging. And this stock is lagging even in the financials. I know they watered down the stock earlier but there is a major push to get this stock well past 5. I see this touching 8 this year or next and that is some good growth for anyone's money.

    But yea - warn us next time Artesticles ;)
     
  20. ArtV

    ArtV Member

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    That's another stock that had been lagging but I don't have the guts to pull the trigger now as I think it's now getting properly priced since it's reverse split.
     

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