some of these didn't hit but are you buying here on gld and oih? also uso is probably one to avoid if you are an energy bull since it is a losing game with that trust.
Do you think that those with Short positions will cover at the Close or will they carry overnight with expectations - hopes of more downside on Tuesday?
I'd be careful going long USO until the contango is worked out of the oil market. Not bullish for the short term supply/demand picture. I'm sitting on DTO right now, enjoying my profits. short term play
It looks like some others did the same because we didn't have much of a bump at the Close like we sometimes do.
I don't know guys. It isn't looking to good from my charts. I don't think we can dismiss this as any pullback. A 2.5% pullback in the S&P and 3.6% pullback in the Hang Seng barely even put a dent in my stochastic indicators! I think we are on the precipice! I went so far today as to go all cash in whatever was left of my 401k and SDS shares for Roth. I thought there was going to be a large two-week pullback starting today to ~900 S&P. But, at closer look at my charts this will be a massive pullback until April 2010. Im talking 500 S&P! There may be some mini rallys here and there. But ultimately, I don't think we will just test the March lows; we will crash right through them. We all know that this rally was B.S., but we can't fight the market. So I urge you to short everything except commodities. You guys seen oil off about ~3% today. But, then we saw buyers coming in and buying the dips and oil finished off ~1%. Im not saying oil won't go lower, but as soon as this two week dollar rally is over. Oil & gold WILL rally until December. If you think about it. Where else are the hedgies other institutions going to go? Treasuries again? I think not. This is just my opinion backed up by my chart analysis. I would like to here from you guys on where you think we go from here in equities and commodities.
I too think we're in for a sizeable correction. Here's a clip from Shadow Capitalism, which partially explains the recent run-up in stock prices (which I agree with) "the money rushing into the stock market driving this rally is not from real investors like you and me, but from the Fed, which channeled cash to banks to be used to re-inflate asset prices so they could shore up their books without needing to be nationalized. It does, indeed, look that way. Only $400 million has shifted from money market accounts, yet the total stock inflow since March is $2.7 trillion."
I just bought some SDS to hedge against my piddly holdings in my trading account. We'll see what the week holds. There were a lot of stocks that bounced big from the open this morning. I think C dropped to around 3.80 and F dropped to around 7.12 or so before coming back an hour or two later (not all the way, of course). We'll see what the week holds.
Interesting, don't know if this relates well to what you say but a lot of people on this site, Robbie and Invisible Fan in particular have been claiming that the rally is suspect because of lack of volume
Art my man. You are making my point. If you read my previous post on 8-14-2008 @ 8:17 a.m. check out my FAZ opinion. I said the rally in the financials will last until the end of Tuesday. FAZ will go down. FAS will go up. Right now Im short GOOG, FXI, and the S&P. Im puying SPY and SDS puts at the top of this rip as we speak. Don't get caught without a chair when the music stops!
I was being sarcastic. Who knows, maybe he's right. We'll see tomorrow? FAZ looks like it hit a valley at 1pm @ around $27. If he's right, that would be a pretty nice entry point.
I'm still kicking myself for not buying some C yesterday around 3.80-3.85 and make at least a quick $0.30 on it. I did buy some more F though. I keep expecting a takedown in this market, but it never comes... let's see what happens at the end of the day.
It's amazing how C has an impenetrable wall at $4.15. Sell in the 4.10s and then short at the same price, then cover and buy back in the 3.70-3.90s, and then rinse and repeat.
Concerns in the overseas markets will be setting the tone for the Open of the U.S. Market. <hr color=RED> China Stocks Slump, Briefly Enter Bear Market on Loan Concern <i> Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks tumbled, briefly driving the benchmark index into a so-called bear market, on concern economic growth will falter as banks rein in lending. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 4.3 percent to 2,785.58, as Citic Securities Co., the nation’s biggest brokerage, slumped 7.8 percent and China Vanke Co., the largest developer by market value, fell 5.6 percent. The gauge has slumped 19.8 percent since Aug. 4, after more than doubling from November, as China rolled out a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package. A plunge in new bank loans in July, disappointing earnings and concern the government will seek to damp property speculation has sapped confidence, driving losses close to the 20 percent threshold for a bear market. “It’s irrational selling that has shattered market confidence,” said Larry Wan, Shanghai-based deputy chief investment officer at KBC-Goldstate Fund Management Co., which oversees about $583 million in assets. “Some mutual funds have been reducing their stock holdings as they are pessimistic about the economic outlook.” China Everbright Securities Co., which had the smallest first-day gain of any new stock in Shanghai this year, slumped by the 10 percent daily limit today. About 10 stocks fell for each that rose on the benchmark index. “It’s scary,” Xu Xuehong, a 64-year-old retired worker in Shanghai who had about 300,000 yuan invested in shares, said in an interview at a branch of Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. “The decline is too rapid; I am not going to make new investments.” Share Sales The market slump follows the lifting in June of a nine- month moratorium on initial shares sales that triggered about $1 billion worth of IPOs by eight companies including China Everbright, China State Construction Engineering Corp. and Sichuan Expressway Co. The Shanghai index, the world’s best-performing major market from Jan. 1 to Aug. 4, remains 59 percent below its record level on Oct. 16, 2007. Of the so-called BRIC group of emerging economies that includes India and Brazil, only Russia is in a bear market. Chinese stocks are “extremely frothy” and investors should have an “underweight” position in the country’s shares, said Devan Kaloo, who oversees $11.5 billion as head of global emerging markets at Aberdeen Asset Management Ltd. “I’m worried about a correction in a market that has been driven by cheap money,” said Kaloo, whose Aberdeen Emerging Markets Fund has beaten 98 percent of peers this year. Tighter Loans A slump in China’s July lending to less than a quarter of June’s level and disappointing earnings from companies including Yunnan Copper Industry Co. have weighed on shares. “The current correction is reflecting the tightening in lending,” said Andy Xie, a former Asian chief economist at Morgan Stanley, who correctly predicted in April 2007 that China’s equities would tumble. “We’ve seen the peak of this market cycle.” An estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of loans were invested in stocks in the first five months of this year, China Business News reported on June 29, citing Wei Jianing, a deputy director at the Development and Research Center under the State Council, China’s Cabinet. The market may fall a further 10 percent, Xie said Aug. 17. The Shanghai index is trading at 30.3 times reported earnings, against 17.5 times for shares on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and remains 53 percent higher than at the start of this year. The economy expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, rebounding from the weakest growth in almost a decade. Still, exports last month fell 23 percent from a year earlier, while urban fixed-asset investment and industrial output both expanded less than economist estimates. Construction Bank China Construction Bank Corp. President Zhang Jianguo said that the nation’s second-largest bank will cut new lending by about 70 percent in the second half to avert a surge in bad debt. “We noticed that some loans didn’t go into the real economy,” Zhang, 54, said in an Aug. 6 interview. “I feel that some industries are expanding too rapidly. For example, housing prices are rising too fast.” Real estate developers led today’s decline, with the China Se Shang’s Property Index falling 7.5 percent. China Vanke fell 5.6 percent to 11 yuan. Poly Real Estate Group Co., the second- biggest, dropped 5.6 percent to 23.76 yuan. “The Chinese market is very trend-oriented because there are many individual investors,” said Philippe Zhang, chief investment officer at AXA SPDB Investment Managers in Shanghai, which oversees about $220 million. “It can rally very quickly and go down strongly as well.” Metal Stocks Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. fell 7.5 percent, the most in nine months, after posting a first-half net loss. Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s biggest producer of the metal, lost 8.4 percent as the metal slumped to its lowest in more than two weeks. Everbright Securities tumbled by the maximum after yesterday advancing 30 percent on its debut. The first-day gain for the Shanghai-based brokerage trailed the average 109 percent of the seven other companies to list shares in China since the moratorium on IPOs ended. “The rally is over,” Wu Ruiling, a 70-year-old retired teacher in Shanghai, said at the Shenyin & Wanguo branch. “All we heard is funds are exiting the market as the government tightens bank loans. If I sell, I will have big losses.” The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which measures Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies, dropped 1.6 percent today to 11,260.83. </i> <hr color=RED> With it being a <i>POMO</i> day for the Federal Reserve, the expectation will be for the Market to flatline rather than to have a continued decline after the first hour or two. We will see how it goes and watch for a <i>POMO</i> effect.
Hey guys. Don't know what to make of this market action today. Didn't expect the dollar to drop like it did or I would've cashed out on the dip this morning. Lets see the bond market is booming, the VIX is still positive for today and it looks like we'll see $3 on the pump pretty soon. Expiration weeks are crazy.
