Not that I agree or disagree, but what are you basing any of this off of? If you expect anyone to take this stuff seriously, you should probably talk about what led you to those conclusions, instead of just giving predictions. Fundamental factors? Technical? etc. Incidentally, I agree with some of your view points, specifically regarding China/US equities, and Gold. I look at charts and technicals. I would list my reasons, but I am not the one giving predictions. EDIT: If it is just your opinion, then never mind. But we all have those.
I'm just basing this strictly off of chart analysis. I threw all the fundamental analysis out of the window in this crazy market. These are just my opinions based off of my research. Time will tell if my predictions are credible or not I guess.
Absolutely agree. I am more interested in the "research" part than the "predictions". Divulge some of the indicators, processes that got you to these conclusions. Whether you end up right or wrong shouldn't affect your credibility. Holding anyone to that standard is assuming the stock market is predictable in the first place, which is false 90% of the time. Instead, if you demonstrate that your research is based in logic and reason, you will be credible, whether your predictions pan out or not. Just stating the predictions doesn't tell me much. Anyone can make them. And if they turn out right, it doesn't really provide any credibility, since anyone can get lucky too.
Cxbby, you probably wouldn't believe me if I told you about my method. Also, you may probably get quite the chuckle. I don't use charts to identify the the usual suspects (i.e. pennant, head and shoulders, cup and handle or various entry points etc.) like you, Robbie and Mango do so well. My method just gives the time horizon, direction and the magnitude of the move of a certain equity or index.
Sorry, I can't hang with CXbby and robbie on the TA work. I am fairly primitive looking mainly at Support & Rssistance, MA crossovers and trendlines. TA work beyond those areas are a bonus for me. Other methods that are in use: Cycles Astrology (Arch Crawford) Gann What you described sounds something like cycles, but not exactly.
so if u guys wanna see what the mkt trades like when goldman can't put out orders to the nyse check it out. completely different and less liquid...cool stuff. nvm....nyse is down. ok well then i change my original idea. pretty cool to see how well the market handles this without completely coming to a halt now.
Trust me, I would be more than happy to hear about any new strategies. There is never an end to what one can learn from the markets. The last thing I would do is laugh. Unless it is based on reading tea leaves or something... but then again, most professional money managers consider chart patterns tea leaves, so who knows! One thing I can say about different strategies is there isn't one that is perfect. As long as you have a plan and adhere by it, then you are already ahead of most average "investors". Whether your strategy has any statistical significance obviously matters, but what is more important is probably your money management, risk/reward management etc. If you don't have those, even a profitable strategy would fail. As long as it is working for you, I would love to hear about it. I apologize if my initial posts sounded confrontational, that was not what I meant. It's just that so many simply state: "Get in XYZ!" or "ABCD is going to 200!" That means absolutely nothing to me. Even if they eventually turn out correct, I couldn't care less. I would much rather hear about how they got to those conclusions, and determine whether their logic made sense. I try to do this when I talk about setups in the TA thread. In the end it is the process that is important, not the result. Since nothing is guaranteed.
Here is what I see coming in the markets: -SPX Short term: The rally is still intact until midday today. I would sell the rip we have at the open. Long term: There will be weakness for two weeks starting next Monday. Followed by a mini rally. Then I fear that none shall be spared. -FXI S: A short term by signal midday today. This will expire @ the end of Monday. L: Sell signal until mid-September. The Chinese market is toast for right now. U.S. will surely be there after the rally today. -DXY S: Still weakness in the $ until late on Monday. L: After Monday there will be a rally in the dollar for around two weeks. Painful two weeks for equities. -VIX S: Major sell signal yesterday on top oof the previous sell signal. This means the continuance of the rally until the end of today. L: N/A -FAZ S: For some reason the financials will rally until the end of Tuesday. I think they will be the last to start falling in the two week pullback. L: N/A -GLD/USO S: Buy all dips!! L: I see a rally until December for Gold and Oil. Good time to go long. ** Hang Seng has issues a major sell signal. Monday the S&P will have that same sell signal. Prepare your self for the worst. The bear market rally was very profitable and good while it lasted. Now let's make some money on the way back down. - Stakes are high
Why are you expecting Crude and Gold to rally coupled with a strong Dollar? Some (all?) of the recent momentum in Crude prices was the perception of <i>Green Shoots</i>. The correlation between $WTIC and $SPX isn't perfect, but close enough to make it hard for Crude to stay near current prices with the Stock Market correcting or worse. A major <i>geopolitical</i> type of event would be able to cause some situations that maintain or strengthen Crude prices while the stock market would suffer, but you haven't mentioned that occurring.
Mango, I think you mean Green $hits. LOL! But, I think that the correction in oil will not be that bad compared to equities. Thats why I'm buying all the dips. Right know I'm buying OIH JAN 130 Calls on the dips. There will have to be a decoupling of the $ from commodities. I dont know when. But when the charts show it I will post it. You are right though, there may be some sort of societal acrimony or geopolitical event that may occur. I dont know.
In the three month S&P chart, it seems that GOOG is in a pennant formation that starts in mid-July. All my bets will be that the breakout movement will be down, down, down with the equity market. To tell you the truth I think the Q's rally was unwarranted from the start. Most tech companies P/E's are at 50-60x earnings. Anyhow, Im looking at SEPT 400 puts. Yeah I'm saying a $60 drop in about a month. - Stakes are high
GOOG is in a rising Wedge formation. This is indeed bearish and does not bode well for the NASDAQ and general market. This also fits with the previous chart of Shanghai breaking down. I don't usually trade GOOG so I will post this here instead of the TA thread. I use it more as an indication for the market than a trade.
Since this is the active thread at the moment, I will post my charts here. In the first chart, there has been some decoupling between movements in OIH and WTIC over the past month. OIH is charted with candlesticks with WTIC using the solid line. <center> </center> In the second chart, there has been some decoupling between movements in XOM and WTIC over the past month. XOM is charted with candlesticks with WTIC using the solid line. Perhaps a few dollars more to the downside for XOM to the 66 - 65 area. <center> </center> In the third chart, there is still strong linkage between the movements in SPX and WTIC. SPX is charted with candlesticks with WTIC using the solid line. <center> </center> Overall, I take it that the investors - traders in oil sector stocks have accepted that the "OK" profits announced in July are the reality and to pay less attention to short term movements in Crude Oil when making buying decisions. If we have some solid corrective action in SPX, then I would expect similar for Crude Oil. SPX Bulls should hope that a correction would stop around the 950 area and not go lower to cover a Gap under 910.
