Actually I slid into some UYG 14 calls today at market close. It's my only long position. Im goign to be watching the JPM 40 calls. I think if it bottoms then JPM will trade back to 48-50 which would make the calls 8-10. Great profit at a basis of 1-3 wherever they end up at.
As they were saying on CNBC yesterday, 25 more trading days at the recent rate of the last few weeks, and we'll be at Dow 0, and that will serve as a buying opportunity.
You'd have to jump on that. You could buy an infinite number of stocks for no money. The PE at the bottom of the the Great Depression was 8 so we could go down another 50%.
Absolutely. The best investment strategy is trying to time the market. The only better advice is trying to time a specific stock. This nugget should be forwarded to every joe six-pack investor out there. Brilliant.
Time to short retail? Somebody told me that most retailers make 50% of their profits in November and December. Is that just an exaggeration? This will be the worst holiday shopping season in years. This could cause a wave of bankruptcies in the retail industry.
closed all my longs on financials that i bought before close yesterday. Guess, I guessed the timing right on the rate cut. Anyhow, it's a head fake. Dow still going to bottom at sub 9000K. More pain to come.
RTH is the retail holders ETF. Ive been short this since 100. figured how can it be at 100 when the economy sucks. 100 was really the year high. Ridiculous! Id just short this thing. It's kind of hard to pick which retail stocks will crash.
In case nobody pointed it out yet, the Nikkei is below the Dow. We passed the point of rationality a long time ago. Don't try timing the market or prognosticating, you'll get burned. It has come to a point where I can't buy a security and be confident that it will hold its value in the next 30 minutes. There is widespread despair out there. An entire nation (Iceland) is on the brink of bankruptcy. It looks like the Dow needs to drop another 500-800 points for us to finally hit the rock bottom we're looking for. And that's even optimistic, considering people are projecting a low of 7,000 already. It's bizarre. OK, some good news. T-bill yields have been rising all day. Maybe the credit crunch is starting to turn a corner after all.
You guys trying to time this thing are well... courageous. There are no fundamentals or technicals being adhered to - this is just a market gone nuts. I'm content waiting on the sidelines for this to settle down a bit. I'm tempted to buy some calls, though - I just don't know what. This is a good time to look around and see what you think is "way too undervalued". Of course you probably thought they were "way too undervalued" about a week or two ago, too.
Exactly! I've been buying 'great deals' for weeks now! At cheaper and cheaper prices . I'm thinking I should wait it out until the stocks are expensive again. This cheap stuff is way too costly.
Ok, take my further points with a grain of salt - but I hate to see people throwing in their cash only because they hear, "the best time to invest is when the market crashes" and don't put in some due diligence. Don't gamble, and have some kind of effort and reasoning! Three generalized and not so good reasons not to get in yet: 1. Earlier a poster mentioned Great Depression and PE of 8. Our crisis is as bad and Iceland is having to sell Bjork CDs for 30 cents. This would put a first loose benchmark of 7k. 2. Peak was at 14k, two previous "stable points" were 10k (2004-05) and 8k (2003 sell off). Our crisis is worse than 2003 and a bad but firstline benchmark here would be to expect a weighted 4k redirection below 10k. Again, this is close to 7k. 3. Take a closer look at individual stock prices across the board vs. projected future earnings. The "discount" most people are getting is still not that great... it's the fact that we were so heavily inflated. Buying here might be a stock you baghold for 5+ years if the US goes into a period like Japan. Then a not so generalized benchmark? You are just not seeing money moving in yet. The simplest thing you can do is monitor some large funds or an index that monitors institutionalized money. Every day, the pattern is still the same. Large volume at end of market, and continuation of losses the next day. Easy guess - that volume at end of market is being used to sell off the next day. There just haven't been enough signs of an end to capitulation yet (ok, as I write this, there's a first sign) - why catch a falling dagger?
