Wow, so I just checked up on my friend. I was expecting blood shed, however he is actually doing quite well. The reason is exactly what you just mentioned. His main holdings at the moment are AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, BIDU, BRCM and LRCX. All tech stocks, and all down nicely from their 9:40 highs. Meanwhile the SPY hit its high of the day at 10:30. His reasoning is that tech has been the leader of this rally on its way up, while the past few days it has lagged. This is an indication of a Top. That is why he has been trying to short, and short tech. Meanwhile I have been short SPY and barely made anything. This is also why he is the Big Dog, and I trade at the kiddie's table.
When the Market took a breather in May, Techs and Small Caps were among the groups to stall first. With XLE being up over 2.7% for the day, it makes it difficult on your SPY short. GS is closer to the LoD rather than the HoD. I am not saying to go Short, but would be very hesitant to add any Longs today.
Energy and Commodities are still going crazy. TCK and FCX are up another 7% or so today. I think I may have just been stopped out of my BAC stock thanks to that news about BofA being accused of making false statements about the Merrill acquisition. And thank you government for F getting yet another pop today.
Overseas demand is helping the Energy & Commodities continue to bubble merrily along. OIL FUTURES:Crude At 1-Mo High As China Economy Roars To Life <i> AUGUST 3, 2009, 9:39 A.M. ET OIL FUTURES:Crude At 1-Mo High As China Economy Roars To Life By Madalina Iacob Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures rose to a one-month high Monday, as strong economic data from China raised hopes for a global recovery in oil demand. Light, sweet crude for September delivery traded $1.84, or 2.7%, higher at $71.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, close to the intraday high of $71.55 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $1.64, or 2.3%, higher at $73.34 a barrel. While oil demand has been slow to recover in the U.S., economic activity in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, is beginning to take off again. Two indexes measuring the strength of China's manufacturing sector rose Monday. China's oil refiners also operated at a record rate in June, drawing down crude inventories, though stockpiles are still nearly 10% higher than they were last year. It was explosive demand for fuel from fast-growing emerging markets that pushed oil prices above $145 a barrel last year. "Everybody is looking at China for signals that we are coming out of the recession," said Tom bentz, a broker and analyst with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. Crude futures have advanced more than 12% since their settlement below $64 a barrel on July 29. The rapid advance has left some market participants doubtful about the recent rally as crude supplies remain high and demand is still soft. Economists expect the Institute for Supply Management to report later Monday that the U.S. manufacturing sector is still contracting, and leading forecasters still anticipate that global oil demand will fall this year. "The rally, it's unbelievable," said Tim Jennings, broker at Vantage Trading. "I don't think this upward movement is warranted by the fundamentals. There is no evidence that demand has picked up in any of the energy markets...why are we almost $6 higher since last week?" Higher equities and a weaker dollar are also lending support to the crude market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.8% at 9248 in early trading. The rise in investor appetite for riskier assets has hit the greenback, making dollar-denominated oil much cheaper for holders of other currencies. The euro was recently trading at $1.4320 up from $1.4206, close to its strongest against the dollar since December. Front-month September reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded up 5.29 cents, or 2.6%, at $2.0655 a gallon. September heating oil traded 4.90 cents, or 2.7%, higher at $1.8815 a gallon. Both contracts are in their first day as the front month, with August RBOB expiring Friday at $2.0448 a gallon and August heating oil ending at $1.7938 a gallon. </i>
Mango, I took my own advice back in March when I said if China rallies, I'm buying commodities. I only bought TCK, but that's turned out well - my only regret is selling it initially. I finally dumped T after going green on it again.
Speaking of China, I was looking at a chart of the Shanghai composite recently, and that thing has gone parabolic. Look for a retracement of 50% of the recent up move soon, which will have similar implications for commodities.
GS is slightly Green with XOM still Red and not showing much promise at the moment. XOM is still a bit cramped on its Daily Range, so it could breakthrough 70.64 or fall through 70.00 before the day is done. The major Q's (MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, CSCO and AMZN) are all Red at the moment. <hr> Robbie Are you still out there?
GE trying to get through HoD. I'd like to take my 14% and buy back in the low 13s, but still think this has a ways to go.
GE will trade down to ~12.5 to fill the gap on the 30th, possibly within the next week or two. This should coincide with a market correction. Nothing is certain, but this I am pretty sure about. EDIT: Not saying it can't go higher before doing this though.
I don't, but I was going to be nuts and try buying some CIT this morning at around $1.20+.... I didn't have the guts. I'm tempted to just throw some money at it for kicks if it pulls back again.
I've also been watching HOV pop for the past few days when other stocks in the housing industry haven't risen nearly as much. I don't know what's going on there or who's buying.
How do you guys think the Cisco news will affect the market tomorrow? (earnings fall 46 percent, but beat expectations)
I don't think it'll affect it that much. Chambers usually reports something like "we did well, but................ we see terrible clouds on the horizon that will no doubt kill our future" Ok, I'm exaggerating, but he's usually really cautionary on his earnings calls. This one, he appears to have been more neutral-to-not-so-bearish instead. The next 2 days will be dictated by the jobs numbers, not Cisco.
Quick question: What is the cheapest discount broker of the big ones? I wont be that active just want to do some basic trading once in a while. I think it is scottrade but wanted to make sure.
