BTW anyone here besides Mango follow the TA thread? NVAX trading through resistance since Friday. Bingo bango bongo? Giggity giggity giggity? Probably too early for that. Lets at least wait for $4.00. I talked a little about Swine Flu in that thread, as well as in the Swine Flu Pandemic thread. I hate to trade on fundamentals, and I don't, BUT I do like it when a sector is in play. This means volatility, momentum and action. And there is no denying that the swine flu play is in right now. There are many people short these stocks because they believe swine flu is overblown, and at worse it will be like a mild case of the common flu. This may all be true, however as traders we shouldn't care about that. What we should care about is: Is it possible that it could be something worse? Is there fear of it becoming something worse? You see, reality matters little to us because we do not have to hold these stocks indefinitely. As long as there is fear, these stocks will rise, regardless of reality. In another 2 months or so, once flu season is in, one of 2 things will happen. 1. Swine flu has mutated into something serious. FDA fast track approves all related vaccines. Mass panic. Hysteria. These stocks will eventually rise 1000%+ from where they are at now. 2. Swine flu is nothing but a common cold. Flu play is over, momentum dies down, these stocks eventually fall back to their pathetic lows. HOWEVER, this is not to say they haven't already risen 100-200% in anticipation in the meantime. So in the end, did it even matter how reality played out? You either hit a home run, or still possibly profit if it fails. So much of the market is driven by fear and greed as opposed to "reality" that those are the only things that should matter to a trader. Is it really correct to short now if they can run much higher before falling? Who cares if you are "right" or "wrong" as long as you make money? Timing is more important than correctness. Momentum is more important than reality. 1. Identify what is in play. 2. Use technicals as entries and exits. 3. ?????? 4. Profit! Simple as that.
BUY BUY BUY! Past couple weeks have been fantastic...simply moving up stops to maintain more profits. Props to GS for the fantastic tip.
Since you seem convinced about the <i>worthiness</i> of this upward move, then why are you using <i>Stops</i>?
I've been thinking we'd pull back for the last week or two. F, TAN, and TCK have all done well for me so far the past few days/weeks. I keep moving my stops up on them, but I get the feeling I may hold F for a while. I'm leaning toward getting rid of my SSO and QLD afterhours, but I want to see how this "rally" holds up in the close.
AAPL is $16 - $17 from its 52 week high. A person does have to wonder how much is left in this upward move.
anything specific you lookin at? I'm also still looking at SWHC for the low on the handle. Do you think this will still happen?
I have been building a short position last few days. I think the news is bad even if the market is going up. Of course I have stop losses so I don't lose too much.
Nothing specific. Just shorted the entire market at 3:35. Financials, commodities, REITS, none shall be spared! Covered at close, looking forward to the gap down tomorrow. Market put in a nice exhaustion gap today. Maybe maybe no? This is happening as we speak. I wouldn't load up on the "handle" though, get in half at most. The other half at the breakout, which looks to be 7.0. Stops put in at 5.48.
If the Gap at the Open isn't too big (-8 or less SPX), then it is possible that it will get bought and we will see some action on the Upside. If Friday finishes up or relatively flat, then Monday will likely be down. If Friday finishes down, then Monday should see some bounce. <hr> Based on recent earnings reports, the oil sector stocks are likely fully priced and perhaps a bit overpriced.
So we didn't gap down on Friday like I thought we would, which puts a damper on the Thursday's "exhaustion gap" theory. We finished flat. And now we are about to gap THROUGH highs, presumably because of HSBC news? Although I am 100% long in my swing holdings at the moment, I have been taking out since last week. I have started to look for some short setups, however nothing of note yet. What is it they say about "catching a falling knife"? Does that apply for trying to "cap a shooting rocket" as well? I am interested in how today plays out. One of our top traders here just told me he is shorting aggressively at the open. He says he will keep shorting unless we are still making highs at 10:30-10:45. He believes today has the "potential to be one of the biggest trades of the summer". He says if it works we could fill the gap on the S&P, presumably to as low as 975-965 today. I am not as convinced, however neither am I as experienced. On the other hand, the last time he was so adamant was on the 23rd. He lost $100k that day. So what is it they say about "catching a falling knife" again? EDIT: I remember now: Don't.
Does your firm get upset if you are in too much <i>Cash</i>? Crude is getting <i>Bulled</i> for no logical reason at all and the Market would be lousy if XLE wasn't looking well. Even with XLE being nicely Green, XOM is seriously lagging other energy names like COP, CVX, OIH and so forth. PCX is going crazy again and it leaves an impression of Speculative - Momentum people playing around in the Energy names rather than what I call <i>Strong Hands</i>. The Speculative - Momentum people will head for the exit as soon as the Energy play turns against them.
Absolutely not. It has long been my stance that introducing logic and reason to trading is an invitation to pain. XOM catching up now. I agree. No matter which market, be it real estate, equity, tulips, as long as the majority of the money is speculative, the move will not be sustainable. Only when most money is invested with no intention of selling will there be a "bull market". The problem with this is deciphering between the Speculative Money and the Strong Hands. How can you tell which is moving the markets at the moment? Maybe using volume as a indicator? I can never say with any certainty, which is why I trade instead of invest. Wow and it is 10:30 and we are making highs! Maybe I should go check on my buddy. I shorted light at the open, but covered after some small profits. I don't know about him though, he was looking for a much bigger move. PS. What do you think about that NVAX/BCRX hedge? I was expecting a nice hedge, not to be profitable on BOTH. Using any chance I can get to pat myself on the back. Sorry but they are few and far between.
I sold some Longs this morning and am building Cash. Yes, but at the moment, they don't have it leaning to go higher. If it had gone through 71.50 with some conviction, then I would have thought of a more Bullish scenario. Not being able to hold 71.40 leaves doubts. Of course, they can run it up this afternoon. Check the TA thread on what I watch intraday in XOM. I read about <i>Market Profile</i> this weekend, but it is heavy on Time spent at various Price Points rather than the Volume actually moved. Some good ideas, but I am looking for a way to give Volume some weight - importance. The reason that I mentioned PCX is because it is something that often gets kicked around. DRYS is similar in that it goes Up & Down quite freely, but doesn't really go <i>Anywhere</i>. You have good ideas and I need to heed them more.
GOOG, CSCO, AAPL and AMZN are up 1 % or better today while MSFT bounces around + 1% for the day. Yet the NASDAQ as a whole is lagging the DOW and SPX. Perhaps a flight to quality Tech names or the Speculative money that would often be in the other Tech names has switched over to the current hot play in Energy.
