Hypothetical here: Let's say I owned stock in Citi group, and next week GS decided to buy C for 8.25/share. Would the stock be valued at 8.25, or would I be cut a check at 8.25 for the shares I own?
obviously hindsight is 20/20, but buying some puts on AIG after it first started collapsing from 20 seemed so easy. it's just been a straight line down since the reverse split, with no sign of abating any time soon. even now it seems like a gimme (which is why it must not be) as there isn't any logical reason to pay more than 0 cents for it, reverse split or no reverse split. someone has made some big money doing this, i just wish it was me.
At announcement, the stock would sell right around $8.25. The deal would undoubtedly take months to close so you would not be cut a check until it closed. Of course there could be "murmurings" that could force the stock to trade below $8.25 if for some reason they thought the deal would not get closed.
I actually tried that on Monday but they didn't have options trading for them on etrade (at least not for me). I think Tuesday or Wednesday is the first time I saw it. By then, the stock was already at $14 or so.
AIG does need to sell itself off to another company. They can't give their insurance away these days. The name is ruined, much like Enron, Worldcom, etc.
[Trading] Technical Analysis Journal There seems to be quite a few traders here, and others at least interested in stocks. Recently I've started an account for medium-long term trading, based solely on TA. I would like to keep a journal of some of the setups I am interested in, for future reference, and also for debate and discussion on here. I know many of you trade off TA as well, so please feel free to post what you are trading, or a nice setup that you are watching. Again, this journal is designed for discussion of technical setups. Fundamental factors such as earnings, P/E, book value, products, and industry take a back seat for the purposes of this thread. I am more interested in things like resistance, support, trend, volume, and price action. I will be updating this journal as I come up with more setups, as well as how I plan on trading them. With that said, here are a few I am currently looking at: <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view¤t=rgr.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/rgr.jpg" border="0" alt="rgr"></a> This is a pretty cut and dry setup. It is an ascending pennant or triangle, whatever you want to call it. Resistance is at 13.0, with a strong close above it on above average volume being a successful breakout. Support is at 11.15 currently, but rising ever so slightly every day. Plan of action: I am currently Long 1/3 of my planned position size at 11.50(entered today). I plan on entering my full position if it reaches ~11.20. If it closes below 11.0 I plan on double covering for a short. If it closes above 13.0 I will enter the rest of my position.
<a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view¤t=gld.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/gld.jpg" border="0" alt="gld"></a> This should have been a reverse head and shoulder for gold. However recent action looks like the pattern seems to have failed. Also to note, head and shoulder formations are typically reversal patterns. Where as in this case, if we broke above 100, it would be a continuation pattern, which is rare. This might have contributed to its failure. In any case, now it is just a quadruple top(believe it or not) at ~100. Plan of action: Short from 97-100, double cover and go long with close above 100 on high volume.
RGR looks like lower level risk play at this point. Nice set of higher highs. I am concerned about the capitulation volume spike on 6/26/09 though. I normally trade alot of these type volume setups, but usually on the short side after a volume spike and then looking for confirming downside movement. I personally wouldn't trade this as I don't see any confirming upside volume other than RGR falling from around 13 to current levels on low downside volume. I would normally short RGR (after the capitulation day) based on another full week of trading action data. This is meaning that I would want to see increased downside volume with low upside volume. If you are going long, I would be careful putting a stop at $11.00 flat. It looks like most all longs eye this same level. Instead, I would place it a bit lower at $10.60-$10.75 or so, as MM love to run through the weak hand money.
<a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view¤t=nvax.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/nvax.jpg" border="0" alt="nvax"></a> This is a flu vaccine company who, as you can see, gapped up 100%+ in a day when swine flu first broke out. In the following week it retraced that whole move and filled the gap nicely(to the penny actually). Since then it has gapped again in early June, to the same area. Both of these gaps are what is giving it a nice support now around 2.3. I've been in this thing for 2 months now and my stop is at this support. Any close above 3.25 means its going much higher.
The volume spike on 6/26/09 was due to the Russell rebalance, not capitulation. It should not influence future price action. I am not advocating a long or short, since it has not picked a direction yet. Long above 13.0, short below 11.0.
Speaking of the Russell rebalance, take a look at ZN. This is the most extreme case of this years rebalance. It shot up 80%+ on it alone! Needless to say it has since retraced the whole move(of course). Its a shame you couldn't short it since it was hard to borrow(maybe another reason it was up so much). This is not a setup I am currently interested in, just a case study on r****dedness. <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view¤t=zn.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/zn.jpg" border="0" alt="zn"></a>
I created that thread for specific discussion on chart setups and TA. This thread is on investing. Two very different things. Also, as a personal journal I was hoping it wouldn't get lumped in a 160+ page thread, especially when we are talking about two different things. That was the idea at least. Sorry.
Perhaps you could petition <i>Them</i> for a specific - niche Forum that a designated person could moderate. By having a designated <i>Moderator</i>, the silly stuff like the Spider Graph could be excised and hopefully that person could be <i>removed</i> from the niche Forum.
Or just simply a specific thread on TA, like I attempted. I didn't know anything and everything to do with stocks had to be in one thread. Since most technicians would think some of the stuff in here pointless.
