Wow, this is just BS lol. I'm a skeptic when it comes to conspiracy theories but there has to be some manipulation behind this. Some people out there are really enjoying the rollercoaster ride that they start and stop themselves.
I'm an Engineer currently working on my MBA. From all the finance courses I've taken, the current market doesn't follow ANY fundamentals. First, everyone cheered the new stimulus stuff and we went super green even though unemployment numbers kept climbing. Now Geithner talks about the plans and suddenly the big firms start to panic and selloff ensues. I'm not saying the illuminati or freemasons are involved lol. I'm not really serious about the consipiracy stuff. Just the thought ran through my head. Before I was a die-hard, "the market is doing what its suppose" type of peson, but for the past couple months, the square peg fits the circular hole.
And before anyone starts to claim I wrote my background in just to show you I'm superior, think again. I'm just stating that I am practical on approaching stuff (due to engineering background) so I don't fall into tinfoilhat mode often.
If you are going to drag <i>fundamentals</i> into the conversation, then there were some <i>fundamental</i> things that were violated over the years and now things are regressing to the mean. * Dubious Loans that <i>fouled</i> the Financial system * Too much leverage being used * P/E ratios at lofty levels * Failed Assumptions about the ability of Housing -- Real Estate to maintain a fairly positive increase in value over time. If you are more concerned with Rallies that continue to fail, then that is the nature of Bear market rallies. There might be some nuggets uncovered at nice prices, but it isn't time for Bulls to buy in 100% unless they are able to stomach the chop and possibly lower prices. <hr> Now to more Current events and the very recent selloff. XOM had already retreated yesterday because it had failed to breakthrough resistance around $81. Since XOM represents over 5% of the S&P, then it is difficult to move forward if XOM is going to be an anchor on the index. Oil and other energy related companies have profit concerns with $40 crude. Since Financial related companies have been under tremendous pressure over the past year, they aren't going to be able to carry as much of the weight they did in the S&P as they used to do. With both Financial and Energy related companies having <i>issues</i> in the current economic environment, it is difficult for Bulls to move the market significantly higher than current levels. <hr> Was there something else more specific that you had in mind?
I am not talking about the long term market advances/losses. I mean the day to day 300 point jumps and drops. It's just happening too often since June 2008. I remeber a specific day when the market tanked and then in the last 30 mins, just recovered everything and more. Then in like the last 7 minutes, it tanked again (although not quite to that days low). I know that there is an expected climb in subjective reasoning and speculation when in a crisis but this is ridiculous in my opinion. What I can't help to think is that why these crazy jumps/drops happen? Is it possible for firms to sell stock at an agreed specified time (ladder selling/buying). Then when the price is low enough, the these same firms are the first to start buying together to spark a bullish mood. I know it's probably not legal but is it possible? Maybe I just have had enough of these crazy rallies and then falls to make me delusional. =/
I will Central (Houston) time in this. 8:30 am -- just before 9:00 am Try not to do anything in this interval unless you have a very specifc plan of action. Market orders and other things being handled in this timeframe. 9:00 am Might see some direction in the market after the opening rumble is resolved 10:00 am -- 10:30 am FTSE (British market) closing operations and can sway the US market in unison/sympathy. If somebody was Long and wanted to go Flat, then they would buy. The opposite machinations if they were Short and wanted to go Flat. With many doing similar things in the same short timeframe, things can get moved around. 10:30 am -- 11:00 am Sometimes a mild opposite reaction to whatever impact the FTSE close had. 11:00 am -- 1:00 pm Usually a quiet time because of lunch hour. 1:00 pm -- 2:00 pm Sometimes the markets are <i>Tested</i> if there is uncertainity on which way the closing hour will go. Sometimes there will be a headfake in one direction and the close will go in another. 2:00 pm That is the deadline for large buyers of Proshares ETFs to submit their orders to Proshares. Subsequent buying or selling occurs shortly afterwards dependant on what Proshares has to do to balance their accounts. 2:40 pm This is when Direxion starts its balancing operation and it usually is in the same direction as what Proshares did earlier in the hour. Direxion is smaller, so its impact is not as great. 2:45 pm -- 3:00 pm Same scenario as during the FTSE close when some wish to go Flat and do what is necessary to achieve that. If there is a sense of overdone Panic buying or selling, then others will be bold in the closing minutes and step up to take the opposite side and carry the position overnight. <hr> Program trading and similar? I am still looking into that.
Forgot to mention, but the momentum -- trend players get whipped to death in this type of environment unless they are really nimble. If you are a Value -- Buy & Hold person, then the daily ups & downs shouldn't matter to you becasuse you buy only when something is underpriced.
to put it simply and truthfully it is just buyers and sellers. there aren't agreed upon manipulative transactions that are going on. it is literally some guy just blowing his load one way or the other getting out of these heavily leveraged positions. further the manipulation you are talking about could cause you to get blown out baaaaaaad if you get caught on the wrong side and run out of buying power. edit...after watching people do this in the market for almost 5 years i no longer feel like the person on the other side is "smarter".
Nope, 5th longest in the Hangout...World Cup 2006 was the longest http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=113373
Ahh, a classic. I had 89 posts in that thread alone...and that was only the 9th most. Some had over 200.
I'm wondering if this would be a good time to jump back into BAC. I ended up selling yesterday at 6.65. I'm thinking I should hold off and see if it drops below 5.
Although true, that's beside the point. I'm wondering why the daily ups/downs happen of such magnitude. I don't get why the market would rally 3 days when you got ungodly unemployment numbers coming out those same 3 days. And today, the market nose-dives due to SPECULATION that the bailout is not good enough. Someone or some groups start the selling process so who ever got out first, made madd cash today. I can't help but to think that when these big ballers see fit, they start buying which in-turn sparks a rally. Rinse and repeat? Fundamentals and earnings are suppose to guide the market. I'm not saying what the S&P should be at. My point is that it should be somewhere, not jumpin all over the place.
The market is forward looking. The market is concerned about earnings going forward. I posit that the market volatility is caused by the great uncertainty of where the earnings will be 3, 6, and 12 months out.
he is talking about more of the insane moves that happen within minutes which are attributed to deleveraging and people just selling at any price or covering a short at any price.
