The stock market is a funny thing. I have a hard time long term holding my money in instruments subjected to the everyday whims of fragile masses. What does it matter if the company is "solid" when the value of the paper that it is traded on is based on the confidence of the herd. Rather than standing in front of an impending stampede to defend the "solidness" of my investment, I would rather concede and look for a "solid" short. There are quite a few more of those.
Nothing has changed since September. Why would you expect it to go back up without a real reason to do so? There hasn't been a catalyst yet to mark a bottom. You can't put a number to it just because it's a nice round figure. The govt has only thrown a 6 month lifeline that cost about 1 trillion. The only way out of it is when a few of these companies actually go bankrupt and debts are reset.
Without anymore hopeful Christmas seasons and end of year sales for another year, i think we will finally see where the bottom is. we get new lay off news now daily, new bankruptcy news weekly. I don't think anyone has an idea where the bottom is.
"Feel"-based investment is rarely the most prudent. 7? 6? 3? 2? Why not? Rather than looking at what it "feels" like we should look at what it "is". It's a house of cards sitting on T-N-T. Anything is possible. In the world of the Stock Market, the same world of pixie dust and unicorns, there is no true "value". It is whatever you believe it to be. And currently, we are sorely in lack of belief.
i'm gonna let you in on a piece of info that may help you in the rest of life: you're not nearly as smart as you think you are
oh don't worry i pull the trigger but actually sticking with the entire trade can be difficult when things aren't planned out perfectly.
yes just based on valuation. is there any particular reason why you feel 8000 is significant? the market is still not very cheap relative to very questionable earnings. further, this bounce off lows has been relatively weak and people are still not willing to step up and buy and they don't really have a good reason to step up and buy.
Maybe because the companies selling annuities might have <i>concerns & issues</i> if we spend a significant amount of time below 8000.
I'd bet a serious amount of money that the Dow will stay under 7000 for at least a month at some point in the next 4 years.
The <i>Financial</i> Sector has already been under huge pressure in recent years and the Dow being under 8000 much less 7000 for a noticable time interval would be another blow to them.
Do ya'll know why Oil have gone back up over $40 while DXO continues to slip under $2.40? It doesn't make any sense...
I'll just say that I don't like what I'm seeing at all. 820 has now turned into overhead resistance for the S&P and the market looks like it's too weak to even break that...nothing more than a dead cat bounce today. A couple more major earnings bombshells and we could be looking at a major washout. The fundamentals are still not back in play, and I'm refusing to go long anything until I'm convinced that fundamentals are back in play.
