I want to see the S&P close above the 50 day moving average (another 20 points higher) before I put money to work on the long side. I'd also like to see the VIX drop back down into the low 30s, which is where it appears to be trending towards at the moment. If we don't see these events, I'm guessing we retest the November 20 low
I don't know what's making some of these run up this much other than an impending Obama inauguration. Any ideas?
I heard them talking about it sometime around market open this morning on CNBC. I haven't heard anything true/false with regard to the rumor. It's been out there for a while, but never substantiated.
I'm pretty long oil right now, and today is a very, very good day. The time to get into DXO was the past few days - the short squeeze appears to be on.
Also - the S&P is now above the 50 day moving average, and the VIX is back down into the 30s. I'd like to see this confirmed for a few more sessions, but this is really bullish for the medium term. I'm looking at buying at-the-money call options on IWM, the Russell 2000 small cap ETF
based on the light volume contratrend moves that occur during the holidays that normally get sold during the new year.
Closed BGU and DIG for nice gains. Nibbled on some BGZ and SRS right before that dip...tight stops...we'll see what happens Friday.
I went short in last 30 min as well at around Dow +140. Lots of buying on weakness on all the short/ultrashorts. The Dow Chemicals [DOW] story has me intrigued and I think might have opened up an opportunity to go long. I like how they are globally integrated and have a considerable bioplastics segment (wish Cargill was public). Anyone follow DOW?
i would definitely pass on DOW. they have had a round of credit rating downgrades since they lost the k-dow deal which they needed for long term growth. now they are saddled with the ROH purchase that they have to find someway to renegotiate to a lower price so they don't trip debt covenants if they go over 4.25:1 leverage. btw i am short DOW and i am looking to short more as the ROH saga develops.
oil is stroooong again today. very interesting stuff going on with USO as well. it had it's biggest volume day ever on wednesday and today the volume is strong again.
It would not shock me at all for some of these oil-revenue-dependent countries that are looking at financial budget crises to cook up a war or some other extreme supply shock to boost the price of oil. Venezuela can't make their budget work with oil under $90. Russia is in deep trouble. Iran and the other Middle Eastern countries have grown used to $100+ oil. I think the Israel/Gaza mess may give some of the ME countries just the excuse they need
