The trend - situation for the price of Crude wasn't good even before the Election in November. Still... “We will drill, baby, drill,” comes across as unnecessary. Houston will be in recession by summer because of tariffs, falling crude oil prices, UH economist forecasts University of Houston Energy Fellow Ed Hirs says the combined effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported crude oil and falling crude oil prices globally are balancing out for now. But, Hirs adds, investment is already grinding to a halt and companies are planning for layoffs in the near future. President Donald Trump's 10% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude oil imports are having little effect on Houston-area refineries so far. That's in part because crude oil prices have fallen across the globe in anticipation of a recession. But Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston, says a recession is around the corner for the local economy. "The 10% tariff on the inbound crude oil is going to ripple across the retail side, but it's been offset a bit by the lower and slower economy," Hirs said. Houston-area refineries receive about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day from Canada, though not nearly as much from Mexico. "It does matter," Hirs said of the tariff. "But it would really matter, of course, if the Canadians cut off that supply or if we go to a 25%, 35% inbound tariff on crude oils. We'll see that reflected in gasoline prices right away." So far, Hirs said, the tariffs on imported crude and falling crude prices across the globe are balancing out in terms of their effects on refineries and prices at the pump. The West Texas Intermediate price of crude oil has fallen to around $62 per barrel, down from about $80 per barrel in the three months since Trump took office. "The tariffs have backed down GDP and a lot of activity,” Hirs said. “Investment has stopped for the most part, because the corporations are unsure of what the future's going to be. It certainly looks like we're going to have a recession this year. Things will slow down this summer pretty significantly. That will, of course, keep pressure down on gasoline prices, even in spite of the tariffs." Hirs said the anticipated recession would affect far more of Houston's economy than just it's energy sector. "Houston has a number of manufacturing companies, a number of companies that rely on functioning supply chains," Hirs said. "The Port of Houston is going to take a hit not only in terms of inbound traffic but also in terms of outbound traffic. Investment in warehousing, investment in travel is going to diminish due to the uncertainty, not just due to the tariffs but due to the layoffs that are going to be coming here shortly."
It does seem Funky or Clumsy for Bessent to say this at a private event. TLDR:: Not Kosher Stock market rallies after Treasury Secretary Bessent tells a closed-door investor summit that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable After starting the week with a sharp selloff, stocks recovered most of their losses on Tuesday as the S&P 500 rose by 2.5%, driven by gains for blue-chip tech companies like Apple, Amazon, and Meta. The rally was triggered in part by remarks that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered at a closed-door investor summit hosted by J.P. Morgan in Washington, D.C. As first reported by Bloomberg, Bessent told the audience that he expected the tariff situation with China to de-escalate while characterizing the ongoing standoff as unsustainable. Investors eager for good news after weeks of volatility leaped at the Bloomberg report, which was published midday, with stock prices jumping after steadily creeping up throughout the morning....
The Institutional Risk Analyst The author is pro Trump, but I try to ignore his political comments. He posts some full articles and snippets from his premium - subscriber content. His focus is on Banks Other Financial Institutions Government Agencies involved with Finance, Housing and related it is boring if one isn't interested in that type of reading material. Even though he is pro Trump, he gave a nod to the idea that the Tariff stuff would eventually be scaled back and that might be why Wall Street Bulls are feeling energized. The very last paragraph... Trump Volatility: Go to Cash? Or Go Shopping? (April 14, 2025) We suspect that Trump is beginning a grudging admission of the truth of national income accounting that will ultimately result in significant concessions to the trade war and an equal rebound in US equity markets, the ultimate inflation indicator. What that should mean to our readers is do your homework and get ready to go shopping.
It seems the institutional investors came out for Tesla on the bad good earnings beat and faith is restored. The volume spikes on the chart were high.
Calendar Cycle Of Promotions Superbowl Valentine's Day St Patrick's Day Easter Mother's Day Memorial Day Father's Day July 4 Back to School Halloween Thanksgiving Christmas New Year's Eve The weight - importance of the various promotions above varies. I omitted some calendar events such as Labor Day, Columbus Day, etc because they don't appear to carry much significance for Retail. The Seasonal Changes (Spring, Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter) also need to be worked into the above. I don't think many companies have a huge amount of surplus space in their Distribution Centers and Stores so they can bring in Back to School. Halloween, etc promotions extra early while they are trying to move and sell merchandise for Mother's Day Memorial Day Father's Day July 4 The same issues of lack of surplus space in Distribution Centers and Stores makes it impractical for companies to have significantly bulged their inventory levels on things that they sell through out the year. Whether non US manufacturers would have been able to rush - accelerate production on things to ship in time to beat deadlines on Tariffs is a discussion for another time. Apple and other Tech companies rushed product from overseas via Air Freight, but that isn't practical for all goods imported into the US. This should be starting to impact Longshoremen now and the Truckers that move Containers from the Ports. I knew a few Truckers that moved Containers from the Port of Houston and they were Independents, so maybe no impact on Teamsters at the moment. As I thought, a Money Guy that doesn't know much about Business Operations.
I have people buying stuff for Christmas and Retailers emphasizing it as an Event that they point to in their sales promotions. If you feel otherwise, please explain why you think differently.
From the very top of my earlier Post. Calendar Cycle Of Promotions My earlier Post was about the Events - Days on the Calendar that Retailers and their Customers gear up for...............not the days that stores are open.
This is so ridiculous lol. If any talks with China were ongoing then they have been completely sabotaged.
Why does the CIA even have a Twitter account? They're supposed to work in the shadows or so I was told...
This is the Commerce Secretary several weeks ago. Howard Lutnick Says Army Of Millions Will Build iPhones In The US, But Could Trump's Tariffs Make The Premium Apple Flagship Cost $2,300? On Saturday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhones could soon be made in the U.S. as part of President Donald Trump's push to bring manufacturing back to American soil. What Happened: In an appearance on CBS's Face the Nation, Lutnick said that Trump's tariffs would incentivize companies to move their production to the U.S., reducing reliance on overseas factories. However, he also indicated that while manufacturing in the U.S. could lead to job growth in certain sectors, it might not create the large number of jobs expected due to increasing automation... Now about some of his children... Cardi B, Rich the Kid perform at dueling bar mitzvah parties (October 2018) The city’s swankiest tweens lived it up over the weekend at dueling lavish bar mitzvahs, we hear. Uptown, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick’s son Ryan was fêted at the Metropolitan Museum’s Temple of Dendur — the same setting as Vogue’s annual Met Gala — with music by Rich the Kid and DJ Irie. An insider told us the performance by Kid probably cost “between $200,000 and $300,000.” One hundred kids attended with 200 adults, including Duchess of York Sarah Ferguson, Melania Trump’s former adviser Stephanie Winston Wolkoff and publicist Alison Brod, taking part in the festivities that included catering by Paris’ iconic Caviar Kaspia... Per what I have read on the Internet, Cantor Fitzgerald has 1600 employees and at least 10,000 when counting those at affiliates. Meet US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick’s sons, Kyle and Brandon American billionaire businessman and philanthropist Howard Lutnick took office on February 21 as the 41st United States Secretary of Commerce. In his swearing-in speech at the White House, officiated by Vice-President J.D. Vance, the former CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald praised President Donald Trump and called Vance his friend. Speaking about his new role, Lutnick promised to rid America of “waste, fraud and abuse”. He added that his goal was to “balance the budget of the United States of America”. To take up his position in Trump’s cabinet he resigned from Cantor Fitzgerald and appointed his two sons to leadership positions in the Wall Street firm. Brandon Lutnick, 27, will now serve as the chairman of Cantor Fitzgerald, while his brother Kyle, 28, will be the firm’s new executive vice-chairman, according to Bloomberg.... ********** If Howard Lutnick was a bit closer to being a Common Man, then maybe I could believe some of what he says. I can't imagine any of his sons working on an Assembly Line putting Cell Phones together.
