Just wait for it .... USO bounced perfectly off my calculated retracement line at $32 with positive momentum divergence. Currently pushing against the 10 period MA on the 10 minute chart ... if it breaks through that resistance then perhaps the trend reversal is indeed happening.
^^ I meant the 50 period MA. Looking at the hourly chart, the new downtrend that began on December 17 has in fact been broken. Retracing now and finding support on that trend line. Still think there is a possibility that the larger trend reverses today, but it could possibly take some time for the bottoming process to complete.
Anyone looking at TBT. The volume has started pickup and it is kind of bottoming out. Can treasury notes keep doing what they are doing?
I'm usually looking at 15 min and hourly charts. Another H&S on the ES 15 min ... unless we break up above the 892 it looks like we're headed for 872.
I've been sitting on sidelines more because I haven't had the time to observe stocks and sectors as thoroughly as I feel comfortable with. Do you keep a log of times you have been right/wrong on your predictions JeopardE - that is, other than actual executed transactions? I find charting broad indexes not necessarily a waste of time but kind of ineffective or maybe inefficient is a better word... unless you've been identifying all the sector movements that compose the index (in which case, why not play the sectors anyways). -- A couple posters a while back mentioned some of the large losses they took on some trades... I've posted about this before and can not emphasize it enough... One of the first tools to successful trading is learning to use proper stops! (or at least be able to execute orders during the trading day as you are carefully monitoring them!) Unless you are victim of a visceral gap up or gap down, I can't understand having to liquidate a presumed short-term trade at close to 50% losses.
Haven't been keeping a log, but in this market environment most sectors tend to move with the market, although the level of correlation varies. Today was the end of options expiration week, and it was really nothing but back and forth the entire day. Haven't had a chance to look at the daily candle yet but I'm pretty sure it looks very much like a gravestone at the moment. Whether that signals the start of a new move next week remains to be seen. But right now I'm just following stuff and not trading at all... without the ability to day trade, this is just not a good environment to trade in. Also about stops ... always a good idea, but in this market you have to be able to set generous stops and then be disciplined about keeping them updated. Otherwise you just get whipsawed out into frustration. Stops are really difficult to set when even low beta stocks sometimes just whipsaw on you for no good reason. That's why really only full time professional traders are having any kind of fun with this market.
The stock market should recover before the economic numbers do, so it might not be as brutal as your "analysis" predicts
for a counter point...the case schiller is still at 150 and the bond markets are still priced for a depression. it will be interesting to see how things play out.
I have read that the economy will rebound at the end of 2009 or later. If that is the case, now and until six months prior to the recovery will be brutal. I certainly do not expect any good news on housing or jobs or financial institutions holding mortgages (or their derivatives) in the first half of 2009. The economic forecasts could be too pessimistic, but up until this point of late the forecasts have been too optimistic.
