There were some people in the poo forum claiming companies were price gouging. Americans are fed up with inflation and with media ringing doom of recession and jerb losses it brings, there will be a consumer revolt for goods of inflation is that bad. I don't think it can be as bad as 2021 if rich people are reeling from stocks, but it's only a feeling. I guess we'll see if gouging in retail is true or not in the coming months lol.
The future will mirror some situations of Covid and Post Covid years while situations from decades ago will be more applicable to our future. Was there some price gouging as we exited the Covid situation? Probably so, but Interest Rates were definitely lower then than now and all concerned (Fed, Governments , consumers etc) had some room to adapt. Now, Interest rates are higher and there is more friction - splintering among all (Countries, Governments, Central Banks and Consumers) than during the Covid situation. Even though there was Inflation, there was some positive vibe that we had seen survived and had gotten past the worst part. Now? I don't think that anybody can accurately say when we will have seen the worst and things will start improving. Hope for the Best, but prepare for the Worst.
I'm not optimistic. Assuming he doesn't cave, we'll see more of Elon's mgmt school of FAFO, where he starts plugging yuge gaps with EOs or he throws Powell out a window. The changes he wants can't all conceivably happen within 4 years, but there were things he started the first term that was picked up by his successor. He wants his cake and eat it. I don't think his master plan is set in stone, and more like feelings where his cronies and their think tanks fill in the blanks.
the closest situation is the roaring 20s dirty30s from a century ago https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression Fourtinlty, Trump in his 3rd term will do just fine ,it's byound Economy, it's a Golden New World Order
Federal spending as a percent of GDP was significantly lower and debt as a percent of GDP was dramatically lower as well. Globalization was not a thing and there was no sustained unusually high deficit spending. Yes the tariff issue has similarities but tariffs were already high prior to Smoot Hawley. The banking system much more stable than it was in the 20s and 30s. There were also major debt imbalances between Europe and the US post World War I. The Europeans eventually defaulted on their debt repayments to us because Germany couldn't afford to repay them. There is no comparable situation like that today that I see. Now if we start to have bank implosions in Europe and China then yes I would start to agree with your point. It doesn't seem that we are heading that way yet, but China and Europe are more at risk than we are. China can also devalue their currency too. There is no gold standard today which allows the money printer to go brrrrrr and deflate currencies. A deflationary depression seems unlikely. The Fed has room to cut rates and M2 money supply has been trending higher since late 2023. In your favor one thing to note is that goods trade as a percent of GDP is a good bit higher than it was back in the 1920s. Trump absolutely must iron out a deal with Canada and Mexico (Japan and South Korea as well) in order to minimize shocks. Someone correct me but I believe something like 80-90% of automobiles and parts qualify for exemptions from tariffs if they meet USMCA requirements. In my opinion both Mexico and Canada bullying harken back to the Monroe Doctrine and also are attempts minimize Chinese economic power in the Western hemisphere. It's not about drugs that issue is a red herring in my eyes. It's a fun exercise to go back and look at the causes of the Great Depression but it's a different world and different triggers for a depression exist today.
I searched it up and found this : Households debt 1920 was 7 billions equal to ~110 Billion today But US GDP was around 60 Billion. Today those no. roughly 18 trillions for Household and GDP is a bit higher ,& was so rosey back then (Radios were big hits) Different chairs and tables but still serve as dining table, Big banks were aggressively pushing for deregulation, JPMorgan serve now as a Whitehouse advisor and deregulation in the process [bas2]. currently both EU &US and almost every country sets on massive debts, will the US implement devaluation of dollars to pay the debts or will other countries sell their holding to pay for their own, more tricky than ever situation. It's goes beyond Auto. I think most businesses would choose to trim their operation, cut expenses and wait until the next election. Even businesses that can efficiently manage to stay operating will face reluctant consumers spending It's more fun tovthink that back in 1920 the economy contracted shortly, but recovered by late 1921 without covid. Add Right-wing reviving in Europe, Nationalists agenda,territory expansion ambition to the mix ,and 50% the population live pay check to paycheck , massive property taxes to substitute reduced revenues, a long list of domino's effects that need urgent resets
One of my coworkers is sad because he's down 500k. He didn't believe me when I said warning Buffet cashed out all his ETFs.
Tariffs will make sneakers, jeans and almost everything Americans wear cost more, trade groups warn NEW YORK (AP) — Sending children back to school in new sneakers, jeans and T-shirts is likely to cost U.S. families significantly more this fall if the bespoke tariffs President Donald Trump put on leading exporters take effect as planned, American industry groups warn. About 97% of the clothes and shoes purchased in the U.S. are imported, predominantly from Asia, the American Apparel & Footwear Association said, citing its most recent data. Walmart, Gap Inc., Lululemon and Nike are a few of the companies that have a majority of their clothing made in Asian countries. Those same garment-making hubs took a big hit under the president’s plan to punish individual countries for trade imbalances. For all Chinese goods, that meant tariffs of at least 54%. He set the import tax rates for Vietnam and neighboring Cambodia at 46% and 49%, and products from Bangladesh and Indonesia at 37% and 32%. Working with foreign factories has kept labor costs down for U.S. companies in the fashion trade, but neither they nor their overseas suppliers are likely to absorb new costs that high. India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka also got slapped with high tariffs so aren’t immediate sourcing alternatives. “If these tariffs are allowed to persist, ultimately it’s going to make its way to the consumer,” said Steve Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association. Another trade group, Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, provided estimates of the price increases that could be in store for shoes, noting 99% of the pairs sold in the U.S. are imports. Work boots made in China that now retail for $77 would go up to $115, while customers would pay $220 for running shoes made in Vietnam currently priced at $155, the group said. FDRA President Matt Priest predicted lower-income families and the places they shop would feel the impact most. He said a pair of Chinese-made children’s shoes that cost $26 today will likely carry a $41 price tag by the back-to-school shopping season, according to his group’s calculations. Preparing for a moving target The tariffs on the top producers of not only finished fashion but many of the materials used to make footwear and apparel shocked U.S. retailers and brands. Before Trump’s first term, U.S. companies had started to diversify away from China in response to trade tensions as well as human rights and environmental concerns. They accelerated the pace when he ordered tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, shifting more production to other countries in Asia. Lululemon said in its latest annual filing that 40% of its sportswear last year was manufactured in Vietnam, 17% in Cambodia, 11% in Sri Lanka, 11% in Indonesia and 7% in Bangladesh. Nike, Levi-Strauss, Ralph Lauren, Gap. Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch and VF Corporation, which owns Vans, The North Face and Timberland, also reported a greatly reduced reliance on garment-makers and suppliers in China. Shoe brand Steve Madden said in November it would reduce imports from China by as much as 45% this year due to Trump’s campaign pledge to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese products. The brand said it already had spent several years developing a factory network in Cambodia, Vietnam, Mexico and Brazil. Industry experts say reviving the American garment industry would be hugely expensive and take years if it were feasible. The number of people working in apparel manufacturing in January 2015 stood at 139,000 and had dwindled to 85,000 by January of this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sri Lanka employs four times as many despite having a population less than one-seventh the size of the U.S. Along with lacking a skilled and willing workforce, the U.S. does not have domestic sources for the more than 70 materials that go into making a typical shoe, the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America said in written comments to Trump’s trade representative. Shoe companies would need to find or set up factories to make cotton laces, eyelets, textile uppers and other components to make finished footwear in the U.S. on a large scale, the group wrote. “These materials simply do not exist here, and many of these materials have never existed in the U.S,” the organization said. Price increases may come as a shock The expected barrage of apparel price increases would follow three decades of stability. Clothes cost U.S. consumers essentially the same in 2024 as they did in 1994, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Economists and industry analysts have attributed the trend to free trade agreements, offshoring to foreign countries where workers are paid much less and heated competition for shoppers among discount retailers and fast-fashion brands like H&M, Zara and Forever 21. But customers unaccustomed to inflation in the apparel sector and coming off several years of steep rise in the costs of groceries and housing may be extra sensitive to any big jumps in clothing prices. Priest, of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, said he has observed shoppers pulling back on buying shoes since Trump’s return to the White House. “They’re nervous,” he said. “They’ve obviously been playing the long game as it relates to inflation for a number of years now. And they just don’t have the endurance to absorb higher prices, particularly as they’re inflicted by the U.S. government.” Winners and losers in a garment trade war According to a report by British bank Barclays published Friday, the winners in the tariff wars are retailers that have at least one of these attributes: big negotiating power with their suppliers, a strong brand name and limited sourcing in Asia. Economists and industry analysts have attributed the trend to free trade agreements, offshoring to foreign countries where workers are paid much less and heated competition for shoppers among discount retailers and fast-fashion brands like H&M, Zara and Forever 21. But customers unaccustomed to inflation in the apparel sector and coming off several years of steep rise in the costs of groceries and housing may be extra sensitive to any big jumps in clothing prices. Priest, of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, said he has observed shoppers pulling back on buying shoes since Trump’s return to the White House. “They’re nervous,” he said. “They’ve obviously been playing the long game as it relates to inflation for a number of years now. And they just don’t have the endurance to absorb higher prices, particularly as they’re inflicted by the U.S. government.” Winners and losers in a garment trade war According to a report by British bank Barclays published Friday, the winners in the tariff wars are retailers that have at least one of these attributes: big negotiating power with their suppliers, a strong brand name and limited sourcing in Asia. Several industry analysts and economists said they think tariffs will end up being a consumer sales tax that widens the yawning gap between America’s wealthiest residents and those in the middle and lower end of the income spectrum. “So where will the U.S. be buying its apparel now that the tariff rates on Bangladesh, Vietnam and China are astronomical?” Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said of the schedule set to take effect Wednesday. “Will the new ‘Golden Age’ involve knitting our own knickers as well as snapping together our cellphones?”
This is all while Trump was playing golf all weekend while the markets are completely tanking. Imagine if a democratic president did that what the reaction would be from MAGATs @Commodore
This doesn't just effect stocks, this most importantly effects the job manufacturing workers here in the US.
